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Odds of the Charles Schwab Challenge 2022
name Probability Justin Thomas +1100 Scottie Scheffler +1200 Jordan Spieth +1400 Collin Morikawa +1800 Viktor Hovland +2000 Will Zalatoris +2000 Sam Burns +2500 Max Homa +2800 Abraham Ancer +3300 Daniel Berger +3300 Im Jason0 Srakakung3030 Tony Finau +3300 Chris Kirk +4000 Davis Riley +4000 Justin Rose +4000 Mito Pereira +4000 Talor Gooch +4000 Tommy Fleetwood +4000 Webb Simpson +4000 Billy Horschel +5000 Brian Harman +5000 Gary Woodland +5000 Kevin Varner III +5000 Harold Varner III Na +5000 Sebastian Munoz +5000 CT Pan +6600 Maverick McNealy +6600 Patrick Reed +6600 Ryan Palmer +6600 Tom Hoge +6600 Adam Long +8000 Bryson DeChambeau +8000 Cameron Tringale +8000 Christiaan Bezuidenhout0H +8000 Ricky Fooie800 8000 Troy Merritt +8000 David Lipsky 8000 Doug Ghim +8000 Alex Smalley +10000 Cam Davis +10000 Erik van Rooyen +10000 JJ Spaun +10000 JT Poston +10000 Joel Dahmen +10000 Kevin Ki00000000000000000000000000001 Matthew NeSmith +10000 Patton Kizzire +10000 Russell Knox +10000 Stewar t Cink +10000 Aaron Rai +12500 Brendon Todd +12500 Denny McCarthy +12500 Emiliano Grillo +12500 Ian Poulter +12500 James Hahn +12500 Kevin Streelman +12500 Nate Lashley +12500 Austin +12500 Nate Lashley +12500 Rodgers +15000 Carlos Ortiz Dylan Frittelli +15000 Kurt Kitayama +15000 Mark Hubbard +15000 Min Woo Lee +15000 Pat Perez +15000 Peter Malnati +15000 Rory Sabbatini +15000 Scott Stallings +15000 Taylor +15000000050 15.000 Greyson Sigg + 15.000 Chad Ramey + 20.000 Chez Reavie + 20.000 Matt Jones + 20,000 Matthias Schwab + 20,000 Nick Taylor + 20,000 Sahith Theegala + 20,000 Wyndham Clark + 20,000 Adam + 20,000 Adam Schenk + Michael Schenk + Ho50050050002 + Michael Schenk + Ho2005002005 Bland +25000 Robert Streb +25000 Trey Mullinax +25000 Tyler Duncan +25000 Z Johnson +25000 Adam Svensson +30000 Andrew Putnam +30000 Brandt Snedeker +30000 Charley Hoffman +30000 Doc Redman +03000 +0000 Doc Redman +03003 0000 Lee Hodges +30000 Luke Donald +30000 Paul Barjon +30000 Sam Ryder +30000 Brian Stuard +35000 Garrick Higgo +35000 Kevin Tway +35000 Bill Haas +50000 Camilo Villegas +50000 Hayden Buckley +00050005000000000000000000 Watney +50000 Ryan Brehm +50000 Max McGreevy +50000 Erik Compton +50000 James Piot +50000 T. Martin Trainer +50000 Ty Strafaci +50000
After an exciting 2022 PGA Championship, the TOUR returns to Texas to play the Charles Schwab Challenge.
The Colonial Country Club is a 7,209-yard par 70 and includes Bentgrass greens. The difficulty of this week’s event could be influenced by course or wind settings. It can play relatively easy or relatively difficult depending on the location of the pines and the firmness of the greens, but the last three seasons have yielded winners with scores between -13 and -15.
The Charles Schwab Challenge is an invitation to host 121 golfers this week, and the course is very strong despite being the week after a major championship.
Some outstanding golfers on the course include Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Abraham Ancer, Will Zalatoris, Sam Burns and Tony Finau.
Former winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge
- 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
- 2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
- 2019: Kevin Na (-13)
- 2018: Justin Rose (-20)
- 2017: Kevin Kisner (-10)
- 2016: Jordan Spieth (-17)
5 Key Statistics for Colonial Country Club
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for the Colonial Country Club to determine which golfers have the best scores in each category during their last 24 rounds.
1. Strokes gained: Approximation
Focus will be a major factor this week. It ranks as the most important statistic historically in the events played at the Colonial Country Club, and that should be the case again this week.
Approximation during the last 24 rounds
- Will Zalatoris (+26.8) (+2000)
- Viktor Hovland (26.4) (+2000)
- Jordan Spieth (+26.3) (+1200)
- Justin Thomas (+24.6) (+800)
- Scottie Scheffler (+21.0) (+1000)
2. Strokes Won: Off The Tee
Both distance and accuracy will be important this week. Historically, the shortest batsmen to find the fairway have thrived in Colonial, but last year, we saw that many of the star-studded field players used large units to eliminate the challenge of fairway doglegs and bunkers.
The rough can be thick and penal, so finding the fairway will still be important.
Strokes Won: Off the tee for the last 24 rounds
- Max Homa (+17.5) (+2500)
- Mite Pereira (+16.6) (+5000)
- Sebastian Muñoz (+16.3) (+6000)
- Brian Harman (+15.8) (+6500)
- Will Zalatoris (+15.4) (+2000)
3. Par 4: 400-450
With seven par 4 on the course that are between 400 and 450 yards, I aim for golfers who excel in this type of hole. With only two par 5s on the field, the par 4 score will be even more important.
Par 4: 400-450 in the last 24 rounds:
- Justin Rose (+13.8) (+6500)
- Myth of Pereira (+13.2) (+5000)
- Kevin Streelman (+13.1) (+10000)
- Scottie Scheffler (+12.4) (+1000)
- Justin Thomas (+12.2) (+15000)
4. History of the course
The history of the course seems to be much more important in the Colonial Country Club than most other courses. The same players usually appear in the leaderboards here year after year.
Course history during the last 24 rounds
- Jordan Spieth (+63.6) (+1200)
- Kevin Na (+40.1) (+3500)
- Justin Rose (+33.7) (+6500)
- Toni Finau (+33.6) (+4000)
- Brian Harman (+33.3) (+6500)
5. Blows won: Putting (Bentgrass)
Bentgrass greens in Colonial are in perfect condition and putters that make it pure have an advantage. Historically, great putters have thrived in Colonial.
Strokes won: Pose (Bentgrass) during the last 24 rounds
- Beau Hossler (+24.7) (+25000)
- Troy Merritt (+23.1) (+5000)
- Zach Johnson (+22.4) (+30000)
- Brandt Snedeker(+17.1) (+25000)
- Ian Poulter (+17.4) (+10000)
The Charles Schwab Challenge Model Ranking
Below, I compiled general model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories discussed above: SG: Focus (27%), SG: OTT (22%), Par 4: 400-450 (17%), History course (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (17%).
Note: Jason Kokrak was second in the model last year and won the event at +4500.
- Jordan Spieth (+1200)
- Toni Finau (+4000)
- Justin Thomas (+800)
- Daniel Berger (+3500)
- Brian Harman (+6500)
- Mite Pereira (+5000)
- Viktor Hovland (+2000)
- Collin Morikawa (+1200)
- Chris Kirk (+6000)
- CT Pan (+10000)
Best bets on the Charles Schwab 2022 challenge
Jordan Spieth (+1500) (FanDuel)
Spieth was my main bet on Byron Nelson a few weeks ago, and while in the end he didn’t, he did nothing to dissuade me from believing that a Texas victory was imminent.
Course history has proven to be extremely important to Colonial, and there is no one better on the course (or even close) than Spieth. In his last six trips to Fort Worth, he has six top 10 finishes, including a win and three runners-up. Its overall shape in the state of Texas is nothing short of impeccable.
Spieth’s performance in the PGA Championship was not his best demonstration, but statistically, he continued with his strong hitting ball. He won 8.6 times from the tee to the green, including a solid 4.7 times in approximation.
He is still fighting the greens as he lost 3.2 times on the field with the putter.
In his last four starts at the Colonial Country Club, Spieth has won 7.1 (2021), 8.6 (2020) and 7.5 (2019). If there’s ever been a place where the 28-year-old can find his hit, it’s here.
Daniel Berger (+3500) (bet365)
Berger is as predictable as he is when it comes to what courses suit his skill set. The shorter tracks and Par-70, where accuracy is very important, have always been adapted to the 29-year-old. He’s a fantastic iron player, but he tends to struggle on long, difficult routes, so it’s no wonder he’s not doing well in last week’s PGA Championship.
Colonial Country Club fits in perfectly with Berger’s game. The little greens give him an advantage over the field for his accuracy in his approach. He beat Collin Morikawa, who is also one of the most accurate iron players in the TOUR, here in a playoff in 2020.
Despite his poor performance last week, he is still in the top 10 on the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Last week’s stats can also be a bit unfair as Berger got caught up in the difficult AM / PM draw.
It’s certainly debatable whether or not Berger is in the best shape right now, but it seems like we’re having a discounted price this week, which is well worth the risk.
Webb Simpson +4000 (DraftKings)
It’s been a tough year for Simpson. Last week’s 20th place finish in the PGA Championship was his first Top-20 of 2022. Many events have been missed due to injury, but the six outings he had in the top 20 were one of the stretches longer in bad shape of his career.
Despite the brutal season, there seems to be reason for optimism. Simpson won shots from the tee, on the approach, around the green and putting in the Southern Hills. This was the first time the 36-year-old had won four of these categories in an event since February 2021.
Webb is also a good course for Colonial, and has two top-5s in his last four trips.
It was encouraging to see Simpson perform so well in a course that it would normally be difficult for him because of his length. Having spent the whole week telling me is finally getting in shape. His strong play could be attributed to his recent iron switch. He won 2.6 times in approximation, which is his best performance of the season so far. When it comes to …