While there are 12 teams still in the postseason to compete for a World Series title, the other 18 organizations are looking to the future, including where they might pick in the 2023 Draft.
In the past, at the end of the regular season, a rough pass in the first round order was possible based on the reverse order of the standings. But thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement, there’s a new wrinkle in play when it comes to the draft.
For the first time, the order of the top six picks in the Draft will be determined by lottery rather than simply being the reverse order of the previous year’s ranking, and the lottery is expected to take place at the Winter Meetings from San Diego in early December.
The teams with the three worst records in 2022 — the Nationals, Athletics and Pirates — have the best chance (16.5 percent each) to land the No. 1 overall pick via the lottery, though the 18 teams that non-playoffs will have a chance to land him. All other teams will have decreasing percentages in reverse order of their records, down to 0.23 percent for the non-playoff club with the highest winning percentage.
As in previous years, any tie in the regular season record is broken by the previous year’s record, continuing with the subsequent previous year’s record until the tie is broken.
Draft lottery odds for the No. 1 pick
1. Nationals (55-107), 16.5%2. A (60-102), 16.53. Pirates (62-100), 16.54. Reds (62-100), 13,255. Royals (65-97), 10.06. Tigers (66-96), 7,507. Rangers (68-94), 5,508. Rockies (68-94), 3,909. Marlins (69-93), 2.7010. Angels (73-89), 1.8011. D-backs (74-88), 1.4012. Cubes (74-88), 1.1013. Gemini (78-84), 0.9014. Red Sox (78-84), 0.7615. White Sox (81-81), 0.6216. Giants (81-81), 0.4817. Orioles (83-79), 0.3618. Brewers (86-76), 0.23
Teams receiving revenue sharing payments cannot receive a lottery pick for more than two consecutive years, and teams not receiving revenue sharing payments cannot obtain a pick in the first six consecutive drafts. Also, a non-lottery eligible club cannot select higher than 10th overall.
The Draft will run 20 rounds, and after the first round, non-postseason teams will pick in reverse order of winning percentage. In the 20 rounds, playoff clubs will pick in reverse order at the end of the postseason (Wild Card losers, Division Series losers, Championship Series losers, World Series losers, World Series winners) . Within each of these playoff groups, teams will be ranked by revenue sharing status and then in reverse order by winning percentage.
With six picks, the MLB lottery stretches more than any other major sports league in the United States. The first four picks in the NBA and the top two picks in the NHL are subject to a lottery, while the NFL has none.
If the Nationals land the No. 1 pick, it will be the first time they’ve had the No. 1 pick since they took Bryce Harper in 2010, a year after they also took Stephen Strasburg 1-1. The A’s, with the second best odds to win the lottery, last had the No. 1 pick in 1965, when they took Rick Monday as the first draft pick in major league history. The Pirates took Henry Davis No. 1 overall in the 2021 Draft. The Reds have never picked first, picking No. 2 most recently in both 2016 (Nick Senzel) and 2017 (Hunter Greene). Rounding out the top five in terms of lottery odds, the Royals have only picked 1-1 once in franchise history, taking Luke Hochevar in 2006, but have picked No. 2 three times, most recently when they got Bobby Witt Jr. 2019.
It’s too early to tell who will be the top pick in 2023, but MLB Pipeline recently put Indiana prep outfielder Max Clark at the top of its high school prospect list and Louisiana State outfielder Dylan Crews at number 1 on the university list. A lot will change between now and next July’s Draft, which will take place in Seattle, the site of the 2023 All-Star Game.