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The National League Division Series between a pair of NL West rivals shifts venue from the City of Angels to what is known as the birthplace of California. It’s the Los Angeles Dodgers making the cross-state trek down I-15 as they take on the San Diego Padres in Game 3 of their best-of-five series Friday night. These teams split the first two games of the series in the City of Angels with the Dodgers winning 5-3 in the series opener on Tuesday night before the Padres responded with a similar 5-3 triumph in the second game of the series on Wednesday night. With a day off and a change of venue, which team gets the win here to put the other team on the brink of elimination? We break it down.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are trying to bounce back on the road
Los Angeles lost home field advantage in the series as they couldn’t get the win in Game 2 of the series on Wednesday night. The Dodgers are now hoping to regroup on the road to prevent them from being eliminated in this series. On Wednesday night, Los Angeles got two hits apiece from Gavin Lux, Max Muncy (run, RBI) and Freddie Freeman (run, RBI) in the loss. Freeman (his first), Muncy (his first) and Trea Turner (his second) each homered in the rout of the Dodgers, who went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position in the game. Clayton Kershaw didn’t factor into the decision as he pitched five innings, allowing three runs on six hits with no walks and six strikeouts. Brusdar Graterol (0-1) took the loss in relief as he pitched one inning, allowing one run (unearned) on two hits with no walks or strikeouts.
Tony Gonsolin is slated to make his first postseason start after logging 24 regular-season starts for the Dodgers in this contest. He went 16-1 in the regular season with a 2.14 ERA, .875 WHIP, 35 walks and 119 strikeouts in 130.1 innings of work on the year. Gonsolin missed the decision in his final regular season start, which came against the Rockies at home on Oct. 3. He pitched two innings, allowing one run on three hits with no walks and three strikeouts in a game the Dodgers lost 2-1. It was his first start since going on the disabled list with a shoulder problem on August 23 In his last three starts, Gonsolin is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, three walks and 14 strikeouts in 14 innings of work. Gonsolin makes his seventh career appearance and sixth start against the Padres in this contest. He is 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, four walks and 32 strikeouts in 31 innings of work. Gonsolin is 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA, a .444 WHIP, no walks and five strikeouts in nine innings in two career appearances, one start, at Petco Park.
The San Diego Padres hope to take control at home
San Diego shrugged off the Dodgers’ first power play in Game 2 and earned the win to even the series before returning home for Games 3 and 4. Now the Padres try to hold on to home field advantage and avoid return to Dodger Stadium for a possible winner takes all Game 5. In Game 2, San Diego got two hits apiece from Jurickson Profar (RBI) and Manny Machado (run, two RBI) to pace a nine-hit attack. Machado (his second of the postseason) and Jake Cronenworth (his first) each homered in the win. Yu Darvish (2-0) earned the win while pitching five innings, allowing three runs on seven hits with two walks and seven strikeouts. Josh Hader went the final 1.1 innings, allowing no runs on one hit with a walk and a strikeout, for his first save of the postseason.
Blake Snell gets the ball for his second postseason start after 24 regular season starts for the Padres here. He finished the regular season 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.203 WHIP, 51 walks and 171 strikeouts in 128 regular season innings of work. Snell struggled in his first postseason start, coming off a road loss against the Mets on Saturday night in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series. He pitched 3.1 innings, allowing two runs on four hits with six walks and five strikeouts in a 7-3 loss to the Padres. In his last three starts, Snell is 0-1 with a 1.88 ERA, a 1.256 WHIP, 10 walks and 17 strikeouts in 14.1 innings of work. Snell makes his 10th career start against the Dodgers in this contest. He’s going 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA, a 1.135 WHIP, 17 walks and 56 strikeouts in 39.2 innings of work against them. Snell is 8-11 with a 3.07 ERA, a 1.078 WHIP, 53 walks and 207 strikeouts in 149.1 innings in 27 career starts at Petco Park.
The best bets for this game
Full game side bet
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This could be a simple battle of attrition with the bullpens. Gonsolin has pitched just two innings in the majors since going on the DL on Aug. 23. Meanwhile, Snell averaged just 5.1 innings per start over the course of the regular season and went just 3.1 frames in his first postseason start of the year. That could force both Dave Roberts and Bob Melvin into their bullpens earlier than they want in this pivotal contest. If that’s the case, we’ve seen both teams see their bullpen thrive in game one and get marked down in one of the series. However, the Dodgers’ relievers don’t have the mileage that the Padres’ relief corps does, in part due to not having to play in the wild-card round. San Diego won game two, but I need to see them beat the Dodgers again before I can have full faith in them. Take the Dodgers as the rest advantage works in their favor.
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers -120
Total full game selection
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We’ve seen eight runs on the board in the first two games of this series, giving us a run in Game 1 and a walk in Game 2 of the series. That extended the last game hit to 6-1-1 in the last eight games when these teams are shut out. No starting pitcher can be trusted for a ton of depth and we saw Snell’s control issues rear their ugly head in the game against the Mets. San Diego has seen their offensive numbers plummet at Petco Park, where they were 26th in runs per game with an average of 3.72 per contest. Meanwhile, the Dodgers were the most prolific road offense in the majors at 5.25 runs per night. With an unstable release and based on recent games, this game ends with the number.
Prediction: Over 7
Written by Chris King, “Chris King”
Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and college sports for more than three decades. Whether it’s playing pickup games or participating in organized sports to being a fan, he’s ticked all the boxes. From NFL to arena football, NHL to KHL, NBA to WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to KBO. If it’s out there, he’s got it covered and he’s bet on it too, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career. Before joining Winners and Whiners in 2015, her work appeared online and in print. He has written books for Ruckus Books on college basketball, NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf and the World Cup. If you’re looking for the inside track to a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.