The 2022 National Hockey League Draft will result in another group of promising young players who want to make the leap to the professional level.
In a league that is increasingly youthful, the days of extensive, multi-year development cycles are long gone. Teams are injecting young players aggressively into the lineup, if not because they are more friendly with the salary cap rules, then because they are the ones who usually drive the performance bus.
But there is clearly a limit to how aggressive franchises are willing to achieve with young talent. Although the average age of lineups has fallen down a cliff in recent years, teams are still reluctant to put younger players in regular lineups.
Sometimes it’s about physical development; other times, it’s about making sure players can succeed in the face of professional competition at lower levels first. From time to time, you’ll find such a talented and developed player, think of Connor McDavid of Edmonton or Aaron Ekblad of Florida, that the decision is easy. But this is not the case in most other situations.
Consider how often first-year recruits have come to the NHL over the past 15 years. The trend line is not only flat, but also shows how difficult the immediate jump is for novice teens. In the course of a draft with more than 220 players selected, only about five will see immediate NHL action.
Despite the revolution of the whole league in finding and dressing young talents, this has been a firm red line:
Last season, only six skaters selected in the 2021 draft had as much as a cup of coffee at the NHL level. Columbus striker Cole Sillinger consolidated a spot on the roster full-time, with five more skaters: William Eklund of San Jose, Owen Power of Buffalo, Matty Beniers of Seattle, Mason McTavish of Anaheim and Kent Johnson of Columbus , with very limited action. Or, to put it another way, a player from last year’s draft immediately moved on to his NHL team.
The number of players who have become regulars full-time over the last 15 years is quite a bit lower, and almost all of those players come from the first round. Of the 59 players (2007-22) who watched more than 20 action games in their first available season, only one, Ryan O’Reilly in the 2009-10 season with the Colorado Avalanche, pulled out of the first round.
A better way to visualize this group of 59 players is the slots in which they were selected. Teams are pretty good at exploring NHL-ready talent, and those players are largely undertaken early in the first round. So if you’re a fan of a team that is drafting early, you may have an outside chance to see that selection in an NHL lineup next season. But in the absence of this very small group of players, the prospects are likely to develop elsewhere, and probably for several years.
The top of the draft is where you’ll find players who make the leap immediately – only the top eight picks account for 82% of first-year professional players during this 15-year interval. If we use the final draft classification of the venerable Bob McKenzie, here is the list of applicable players:
The draft offers a great opportunity for teams looking for future staff improvement, and the transition time for many of these players has been shortened over the years. But if you’re looking for an instant injection of talent, it’s extraordinarily rare to find this type of player out of the top eight options. Patience will be a virtue.
Enjoy the draft!
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference