Here is the Pac-12. Long live the Pac-12. Since last week’s announcement that USC and UCLA will leave their nearly a-century home for the Big Ten in 2024, there has been a slew of rumors about the remaining schools dropping out of the conference. Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and Utah seem to have a foot in the door, and Arizona schools are putting on their jackets.
Is it worth saving the Pac-12? If you think college sports are fun because of regional rivalries, the potential for disadvantaged stories, and post-season historical options, the answer is yes. But football remains the main source of income, with 48 to 64 percent of all Power 5 school income coming directly from college football. The reality is that college sports are heading toward a major, football-driven shift that seems to be slowly moving toward a format closer to the NFL, with two major divisions that will determine a champion through of the playoffs.
In this future, stay and try to survive as the Pac-10 will not work. As the prospect of losing potential revenue becomes clearer, more teams will flee. Right now, the most likely outcome is for the remaining Pac teams to cannibalize the smaller schools trying to save themselves. The state of Washington, the state of Oregon and Cal probably seem doomed to a degradation or total dissolution of major sports programs.
It’s a long road, but here are three options the Pac-12 could pursue to try to save the Conference of Champions.
Option 1: Put and expand
To be very clear, there is no feasible combination of schools that the Pac-12 could add right now that equals the potential lost revenue from the UCLA and USC exit. In this scenario, the Pac-12 plays to expand its media market with the best options available, and expects this new conference to be competitive at a level that puts a significant number of eyes on the screens.
The obvious additions here begin in San Diego State and UNLV. Both schools have new football stadiums and, in the case of the UNLV, are the venue for the Pac-12 championship match. The Aztecs have not suffered a lost season in football in more than a decade, and their men’s basketball team has reached the postseason in all but two years since 2005. Most importantly, SDSU would give a foothold to the Pac-12 in the huge Southern California. media market once again.
The conference could then explore the possibility of adding Southern Methodist University and the state of Boise. The addition of SMU would expand the Pac-12 media footprint in Texas for the first time, and although Idaho is not Texas, the Broncos have had sustained success in several sports; BSU’s football program has held a 12-9 record against Pac-12 opponents since 2000.
And while basketball doesn’t move the revenue needle the way football does, the Pac-12 should seriously consider inviting Gonzaga and St. Louis. Mary’s as only basketball programs. Like everything else here, it’s a long goal, but the two WCC rivals would be a big help for a conference that has only made two appearances in the Final Four since expanding to 12 teams.
Option 2: Bilateral merger with the ACC
In the event that Notre Dame finally withdraws from its agreement with the ACC, the conference could be looking to a future similar to the Pac-12. Clemson’s dominant football program would make a perfect transition to the SEC, Miami and the state of Florida could follow. The ACC should act now before its main programs are picked up.
An unconventional solution could be to look at the remaining Pac-12 schools and propose a bi-coast superconference. The current ACC TV deal is a disaster, and as major channels call for control of a new college sports landscape, ESPN would be wise to seize the opportunity to consolidate a conference that stretches from the sea to in the bright sea. The two existing conferences could function as separate divisions with clashes between select divisions to combat any problems with regular travel across the country.
The two conferences have already talked about a kind of “alliance”, but it seems a half-measure that leaves the door open to uncertainty. Make it official before things get out of hand for us even more.
Option 3: exploit the current system, merge with Big 10 in a promotion / relegation model
With the introduction of the NIL, college sports have changed dramatically in the last two years. As the SEC and Big 12 fight for control in an outdated system, the old-world misfits have a chance to create something completely new: break away from the NCAA and start a new college sports league with promotion and relegation.
Inspired by this reddit thread, the plan involves merging all existing Pac-12 and Big Ten conferences into a league of 26 teams. If six additional schools left by the SEC and Big 12 can be attracted to join, this new 32-school league could be split into upper and lower divisions with a rise and fall model. Detached from the archaic NCAA rules and limited freedom, this new league could address the unequal deployment of NIL, theoretically pay a salary to players, change the rules of the sports they practice, and experiment with new diffusion models.
Legally speaking, this plan would be phenomenally messy and dramatic. But in this strange world of readjustment trying to maintain reactionary control in college athletics, there’s a bit of an opportunity to create something very different from anything we’ve seen before in American sports.