British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is leaving after making a statement on Downing Street in London, Britain, on July 7, 2022.
Peter Nicholls | Reuters
LONDON – The race to replace the outgoing Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, is open.
Johnson resigned Thursday as leader of the Conservative Party, finally succumbing to immense political pressure after an unprecedented flood of government resignations and a cabinet revolt.
“It’s the breaks,” Johnson said as he addressed the British public outside Downing Street. He added that he is “sad to have given up the best job in the world” and acknowledged that “no one is remotely indispensable” in politics.
The 58-year-old former mayor of London said he plans to continue as interim prime minister while a successor is elected, defying calls from across the political spectrum, including some within his own party, to go immediately. .
Johnson’s critics have insisted he should be ousted as soon as possible, while Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab acts as janitor. However, other Conservative lawmakers insist that replacing Johnson could create even more instability, arguing that Johnson should remain in office during the summer.
A timetable for the Conservative leadership contest is set to be confirmed next week and a new prime minister is expected to be in place in September.
Who is going to run?
The contest to succeed Johnson as leader seemed to begin even before his resignation was confirmed, and Attorney General Suella Braverman surprised many on Wednesday evening by announcing her intention to run.
Up to 10 candidates are expected to throw the hat in the ring, although there is currently no obvious candidate to replace Johnson.
Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the Select Committee on Foreign Affairs and a prominent critic of Johnson, launched his leadership bid for The Daily Telegraph on Friday. A former soldier, Tugendhat, said he hoped to respond to the call as prime minister with “new energy and ideas” for the government.
Other likely candidates include former Secretary of Health Sajid Javid, Finance Minister Nadhim Zahawi, former Finance Minister Rishi Sunak, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, former Secretary of Health Leveling Up Michael Gove, International Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt, Defense Minister Ben Wallace and even Arc Brexiteer Steve Baker.
Political analysts believe most have been secretly planning their campaigns for several weeks.
British Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace.
Ian Forsyth | Getty Images News | Getty Images
An instant YouGov poll that asked 716 members of the Conservative Party who would like to succeed Johnson found that Wallace and Mordaunt came out neck and neck, with 13% of respondents supporting each of them, respectively. Sunak followed with 10% and Truss got 8%.
However, a separate YouGov poll comparing individual candidates showed that Wallace was the clear favorite among members of the Conservative Party to be the next party leader.
How it works?
A party leader is first selected by Conservative MPs, and then voted on by members of the Conservative Party.
To become the next party leader, candidates must have a proponent, a supporter, and a certain number of supporters. These conditions are designed to avoid too long a list. Once the candidates are known, the 358 Conservative MPs in parliament will reduce them to two in a series of votes.
Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, questioned the meaning of the system.
“I think imposing a kind of sewn prime minister on the country in a week or two makes no sense,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.
“Of course, you could raise the broader argument that simply allowing 100,000 almost exclusively white men and middle-aged or retired Conservative members to decide who the country’s prime minister is is not a particularly good system and has not given us a particular result. good results in the recent past “.
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss comes out at the end of a cabinet meeting on Downing Street in London on July 5, 2022.
Justin Tallis | Afp | Getty Images
As for the likely policies of the future leader, Mujtaba Rahman, CEO of the European political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said he believed the candidates would likely commit to the promises of the 2019 Conservative Manifesto. These include balancing day-to-day spending with income, with borrowing only allowed for capital projects, and seeing the lowest debt at the end of the five-year parliament.
“In practice, this will be difficult to achieve; candidates will be pressured to increase spending, especially on defense, a popular promise to the party because of the new threat posed by Russia,” Rahman said.
“Policy on Ukraine itself will not change after Johnson’s departure; his successor will want to remain the country’s strongest ally. The United Kingdom will continue to oppose a ‘bad peace’ that will allow Vladimir Putin to maintain their territorial gains in Crimea and the Donbass, but higher.Conservatives privately admit that “they can be no more Ukrainians than Ukraine” and accept that they would be guided by the wishes of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, “he added.
What about the opposition?
The leader of the British opposition Labor Party, Keir Starmer, has repeatedly called for Johnson’s resignation, accusing the Conservative party of “wallowing in ridicule” and criticizing Johnson for the so-called “partygate” scandal. not to mention the truth.
Rahman of the Eurasia Group said Labor were likely to be watching the move nervously.
“Labor’s private fear is that the incoming Prime Minister will be greeted with relief by voters, enjoy a honeymoon period and allow Conservatives to erode Labor’s six-point average in opinion polls.” said Rahman.
“Starmer’s failure to build a bigger cushion while the Conservatives were in turmoil under Johnson may haunt him again. However, the country’s new leader will take over during an economic crisis that will hurt millions “This will allow Labor to have a strong time.” for change “after 14 years of Conservative rule in the 2024 general election,” he added.