China has issued harsh private warnings to the Biden administration about US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s upcoming trip to Taiwan, setting off alarm bells among White House officials who oppose the your visit
Six people familiar with the Chinese warnings said they were significantly stronger than threats Beijing has made in the past when it was unhappy with US actions or policy in Taiwan.
China has publicly threatened “strong measures” if Pelosi goes ahead with the planned August visit. But one person said China had expressed “stronger opposition” to the US in private than before. Several other people familiar with the situation said the private rhetoric went even further by suggesting a possible military response.
Beijing has not been explicit about its possible responses. Her military could try to prevent Pelosi from landing in Taiwan or take other actions to prevent her visit, such as using fighter jets to intercept her US military aircraft.
Several people said the White House was trying to assess whether China was making serious threats or engaging in an attempt to pressure Pelosi to abandon her trip.
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan and other senior National Security Council officials oppose the trip because of the risk of escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, according to two people familiar with the discussion.
The NSC declined to comment on whether the administration had urged Pelosi to cancel her trip. John Kirby, the NSC’s chief of strategic communications, said Friday that the NSC team provided “relevant geopolitical context, facts and information” and that the spokeswoman made her own decisions.
The controversy over the trip has raised concerns among Washington’s allies who worry it could spark a crisis between the United States and China, according to several people with knowledge of the situation.
In another illustration of the growing concern, US Ambassador to China Nick Burns abruptly cut short a visit to Washington this week and returned to Beijing, partly because of growing concerns for Taiwan and also to prepare for an upcoming phone call between President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The State Department declined to comment.
Biden this week said he hoped to speak with Xi at the end of the month. The two leaders are expected to discuss Taiwan, which has become a serious flashpoint.
China has sent an increasing number of warplanes into Taiwan’s “air defense identification zone” since Biden took office. In May, Biden said the US would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan from any Chinese attack.
Controversy over Pelosi’s trip erupted after the Financial Times revealed she planned to visit Taiwan to show support as it comes under increasing pressure from China in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has increased fears about Chinese military action. Pelosi and her delegation will also visit Japan, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia.
The timing of the visit is sensitive for China. It will arrive in the same month as August 1st, the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. It may also coincide with the annual conclave of the Communist Party leadership in the coastal town of Beidaihe, where cadres discuss politics but sometimes also tackle power struggles.
The conclave is even more important this year, as Xi will need to lay the groundwork to secure an unprecedented third term as party chief at the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in November.
Since the US normalized relations with China and switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, it has maintained a “one China” policy under which it recognizes Beijing as the sole government of China, while it only recognizes Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China.
Beijing has accused Biden of watering down that policy by taking steps such as sending a high-profile delegation of former US officials to Taipei earlier this year.
Pelosi would be the most senior US politician to visit Taiwan since then-Republican President Newt Gingrich traveled to Taipei in 1997. Beijing opposes any move that appears to confer legitimacy on Taiwan as an independent country or make that the relationship with the US is more formal.
Some experts say China mistakenly believes the White House is coordinating the visit because Pelosi and Biden belong to the same party, even though Congress is independent and Biden has no power to block his travel plans.
The Pentagon this week briefed Pelosi on the scenarios that could happen if she travels to Taipei. After that briefing, Biden told reporters that “the military doesn’t think it’s a good idea right now” for Pelosi to continue. But US officials have said the military simply outlined the various risks associated with such a visit.
At a news conference the next day, Pelosi said Biden had not raised any concerns about the trip, which she declined to confirm. However, he hinted at it indirectly by saying that Biden seemed to point out some of the scenarios that could happen if he were to visit Taiwan.
“I think what the president was saying is [that] maybe the military was afraid our plane was going to be shot down or something by the Chinese,” he said. “I’ve heard that anecdotally, but I haven’t heard that from the president.”
Pelosi’s office did not respond to a request for comment on whether she could drop her trip.
People briefed on national security matters in Taipei said the risk of Beijing markedly increasing military aggression in response to Pelosi’s visit was more pronounced than last year given the rise in tension.
“Before the gangster wore a suit, but now he directly takes out the knife,” said a senior Taiwanese official.