Conservative lawmakers said Monday that Boris Johnson will likely face a no-confidence vote in his party leadership if the Conservatives lose two by-elections next month.
Two more Conservative MPs on Monday called for the resignation of the prime minister following the party scandal, including former Attorney General Jeremy Wright.
Wright said the affair had done “real and lasting damage” to the government’s reputation, adding: “For the sake of this and future governments, the prime minister should resign.”
A total of 26 Conservative MPs have now publicly called on Johnson to resign, and some made the request following the publication of a condemnatory report last week by senior official Sue Gray on the party scandal.
The report described a culture of drinking and breaking the law on Downing Street during coronavirus restrictions.
For a vote of no confidence in Johnson’s leadership, 54 Conservative MPs must submit letters requesting a vote to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Conservative MP committee.
The number of letters sent to Brady so far is in the 40s, estimated two high-level Conservative MPs. Only Brady knows the real number because it is a secret process.
Letters calling for a no-confidence vote have come from Gray’s report, mainly from MPs who could face a strong challenge from the Liberal Democrat parliamentary candidates in the next general election.
Several senior Conservative MPs said that if the party lost two by-elections in Tiverton and Honiton in Devon and Wakefield in West Yorkshire on June 23, it could cause more Conservatives to send letters to Brady and make sure the threshold is reached. 54.
The Lib Dems seek to seize Tiverton and Honiton from the Conservatives, while Labor seeks to secure Wakefield from the Conservatives.
One minister said: “There will be another round [of no-confidence letters] to publish the by-elections ”.
He added that the outcome of Tiverton and Honiton would be “key” to whether Johnson was facing a no-confidence vote. “Most of the people concerned are facing Lib Dems, and this seat will show us that the threat is bad.”
Another influential Conservative MP predicted a no-confidence vote after the by-elections.
A former cabinet minister said criticism of Johnson could “explode” after the results.
Another Conservative MP said the mood within the parliamentary party was moving towards a vote of no confidence because “it is terminal when your colleagues are convinced that you cannot win a majority in the next general election”.
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A senior Conservative said he did not expect Brady to make any announcements this week. Parliament returns after its last recess on 6 June.
Downing Street declined to comment. Another minister said Conservative MPs were interested in seeing if the government’s new £ 15bn package to alleviate the cost-of-living crisis would improve the party’s position.
“I think people will wait to see what happens after the party,” he added. “Shall we take a step back? Or will the cost of living bring us down again?
If the 54-letter threshold for a censure vote is reached, 180 Conservative MPs would have to vote in a vote against Johnson to be ousted as Conservative leader and prime minister.
A close ally of Johnson’s predicted that if there was a vote of no-confidence, the former mayor of London would fight to stay as the party’s leader.
“Boris’s argument in the party is simple: he has never lost a national election,” he added. “Against all odds, he won London twice, the EU referendum and the 2019 elections. Do you really want to be mistaken for someone who has no record of winning an election?