According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK’s latest wave of Covid appears to have passed its peak, with a drop of more than half a million infections in a week.
The ONS estimates, based on swabs collected from randomly selected households, suggest that the number of people infected in the UK fell by 586,400 in the week ending July 20. However, Covid rates remain near their all-time high, with approximately 3,173,800 people, about 1 in 19, testing positive across the country in the most recent week surveyed.
There has been a similar decline in Covid infections in hospitals, with the UK’s Health Safety Agency reporting on Thursday that Covid case rates fell across all age groups, regions and ethnicities in the third week of July The rates of cases are higher in the over 80s, the most vulnerable to severe Covid.
According to ONS data, the number of infections in England fell in the week ending July 20, with 1 in 20 infected, compared with 1 in 17 the week before. In Scotland and Wales, estimated infection rates fell to 1 in 19, but in Northern Ireland the trend was uncertain, with 1 in 16 estimated to test positive, up from 1 in 20 the previous week .
“Our latest data suggests we may now be over the last wave of infections in the UK, although rates are still among the highest seen during the pandemic,” said Sarah Crofts, head of analytical results of the ONS’s Covid-19 Infection Survey.
“We have seen welcome declines in most parts of the UK and across all age groups. With the summer holidays starting and more people travelling, we will continue to monitor the data closely,” he added.
The latest wave of Covid is the third to hit the UK since December. The first wave, powered by the original Omicron BA.1 variant, was quickly followed by a second wave in March powered by the Omicron BA.2 subvariant. At the height of the second wave, a record 4.9 million people were infected in a single week, about 1 in 13 of the population.
The most recent wave was fueled by two more Omicron subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5, which began gaining ground in June, although BA.5 now accounts for more than three-quarters of UK cases. It is not clear whether BA.5 spreads more rapidly because of its greater transmissibility, its ability to evade immunity from vaccines and previous infections, or a mixture of both.
Covid rates fell in every region of England except the North East and across all age groups, the ONS found.
Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular virology at the University of Nottingham, said government testing data pointed to a fall in Covid cases and the latest ONS results, which lag behind the real-time situation , they confirmed it.
“This is great news, but of course we will see future outbreaks as our immunity contracts and as new variants emerge,” he said. “It is always difficult to predict when the next wave will occur, but the chances will increase as we approach the autumn and winter periods, a time when many respiratory infections circulate.”
Public health officials are concerned that fall and winter could bring a resurgence of the flu and another wave of Covid. Following the advice of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization, all over 50s, front-line health and social care workers, residents of care homes for the elderly and other clinically vulnerable people will be offered vaccines against flu and Covid to reduce cases of serious illness.
“Given the inevitability of a new wave of infections, it’s incredibly important that the most vulnerable in our community step up, both for Covid-19 and for the flu,” Ball added.
Dr Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, said: “It is encouraging that we seem to have reached the peak of infections, but prevalence remains incredibly high with as little as 1 in 20 people infected in the past week .
“Hospitalizations have also apparently peaked, but the increase in deaths we are seeing is likely to continue to increase. Also, this high prevalence will unfortunately translate into longer Covid cases.
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“Looking ahead, it’s pretty clear that we can expect new waves throughout 2022, which may also coincide with a projected increase in influenza in the fall. This makes it essential that we have a comprehensive vaccine plan and seek to minimize the ‘impact of infections in the future’.