Seasonal or higher-than-normal temperatures in much of the country will give Canadians a chance to enjoy the summer, but forecasts from a leading national forecaster warn that the humidity could welcome a few stormy months.
Chris Scott, chief meteorologist at The Weather Network, says the heat, along with an active lightning current, will cause above-normal rainfall across the prairies to Ontario and Quebec.
While that “doesn’t mean it’s a wear and tear every day,” Scott says he expects “some pretty intense storms from time to time.”
Scott says western Canada is not preparing to face the same conditions that caused last year’s devastating heat wave and wildfires in British Columbia.
The westernmost province is expected to gradually emerge from a cool spring and near-normal temperatures from June, which it says will prolong snow thawing and slow the start of the wildfire season.
In the Rocky Mountains, the extremes of spring drought in Alberta and flooding in Manitoba will begin to equalize, he said, as rainfall in the Prades returns to more normal levels.
However, he noted that the threat of drought conditions persists in southern Alberta, which could be influenced by the “epic heat” that is expected to take over areas just south of the border.
“We will have to watch exactly where this large heat dome is installed,” he said.
“This sets the stage for storms … We can have a big hailstorm, a big wind on the prairies and we think this summer really has a lot of chances to have some more of these big storms than usual.”
In Ontario and Quebec, most of the region is likely to experience a “very hot, humid summer” that doesn’t quite touch on last year’s stifling June levels.
“We will see a lot of warm weather, a lot of dry days,” he said, ahead of the start of summer weather on June 1st. The official start of the summer is June 21st.
“But when we have the rainfall settings, just be careful this summer because we believe these storms can really have a punch.”
Scott does not anticipate a doubling of the “extremely rare” strong wind and storm that swept Ontario and Quebec on May 21, but urges Canadians, especially campers, to be vigilant when it comes to fast-paced weather patterns.
Atlantic provinces can expect rainfall above normal and temperatures above normal. These factors suggest a very active hurricane season in the region, he said.
“We can’t say exactly what storms do; seasonal forecasts are a sketch, “he said.
“But it’s a warning if you’re in Halifax or Yarmouth, wherever you’re in Atlantic Canada and frankly you’re back in Quebec and Ontario. Keep that in mind, especially during the months of July and August with the trend of tropical storms and hurricanes. “.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the Yukon and Nunavut, while rainfall remains close to normal.
Around Hudson Bay, he said precipitation was expected above normal.
Scott noted that while extreme heat scenarios are on the rise and will continue in that direction.
“We know that our climate is heating up; that is unequivocal, ”he said.
“Science tells us that the world is warming as a whole and Canada’s climate is warming. So any event that could be related to that, like a heat wave we saw last year in BC , is more likely in a warming climate “.
Some of the recent phenomena surrounding extreme weather events, such as severe storms, are more difficult to predict, he added.
“We are receiving more heat waves, absolutely 100 percent. We are also receiving less severe cold spells,” he said.
“In the middle, you have this combination of more intense rain, but what about the strong wind, hail and tornadoes? We really don’t know in this area. Maybe never, because it’s a very complex part of the weather.”
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