As Republican-controlled state legislatures across the country race to outlaw the procedure after the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, the traditionally conservative Kansas, given the opportunity to respond directly at the polls, denied his own elected leaders the opportunity to revoke a right that has broad support through independent polls.
The measure’s rejection highlighted the increasingly stark divide between the activities of Republican state lawmakers, often in legislatures mandated to effectively ensure GOP control, and the political and policy desires of American voters. In more immediate terms, the defeat of the ballot measure — on a day of extraordinary turnout — also provides a clear indication that the desire to defend abortion rights could be a powerful issue for Democrats in the upcoming elections. half term
The survey, from several sources, is unequivocal and consistent. Across party lines, abortion rights are popular and the Supreme Court ruling is not. The most recent CNN poll found that 63 percent of Americans disapproved, 51 percent “strongly,” of the court’s decision. The Kaiser Family Foundation reached a similar conclusion, with 61 percent of respondents to their survey saying they wanted their state to guarantee access to abortion. Only 25% wanted it restricted.
The backlash, and its translation into concrete policy terms, could sway elections in a handful of states this fall, including liberal states like California and Vermont, where big-ticket results are close to a formality, but the energy of the Democrats could tilt. run for the vote.
The most dramatic downstream effects could be felt in swing states like Michigan, which is embroiled in a court battle over whether to reinstate a 1931 ban, and Colorado, where measures to address the abortion appear on the same general election ballot. as key contests for governor and US House seats.
In Kansas, there was hardly a contest to speak of. The “No” coalition, which opposed a measure that would have removed the right to abortion from the state constitution, appears to be on course for a landslide victory. And it’s no coincidence that the turnout is low. The overall vote count on the amendment eclipsed 869,000 around 1 a.m. ET.
That number surpassed Kansas general election turnout in the mid-2010 year and was approaching the 2014 total overnight. And overall primary turnout in the state two years ago, in the midst of a presidential campaign, reached just over 636,000. In the 2018 midterm primaries, the number was lower: 457,598.
Interest in the ballot measure also far outpaced other major statewide contests Tuesday — more than double the total votes cast in the Republican gubernatorial primary, won by Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt, according to a projection by CNN, with about 350,000 votes as of early Wednesday morning.
Democratic turnout was even lower, another sign that the abortion issue transcends party lines. Fewer than 250,000 voters cast ballots in the party’s Senate primary and only a few thousand more ballots for incumbent Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, who faces an uphill battle to win a second term.
President Joe Biden, in a statement released after the results were clear, piled on.
“The Supreme Court’s extreme decision to overturn Roe v. Wade put women’s health and lives at risk,” he said. “Tonight, the American people had something to say about it.”
While Kansas got its say, millions of Americans in other states are unlikely to get a similar opportunity, at least not anytime soon. Meanwhile, Republican leaders and anti-abortion activists in several states are locked in court battles as they try to implement all kinds of new restrictions or pre-existing “trigger laws” over the objections of abortion rights groups, many of whom argue that these measures violate. applicable state law or constitutional protections.
How the Kansas vote resonates in those states remains to be seen. But even before Tuesday night’s rumble, there have been hints that even GOP heavyweights are unwilling to escalate the fight.
Conservative governments. Ron DeSantis in Florida and Kristi Noem in South Dakota, who are believed to harbor national ambitions, praised the Supreme Court’s ruling but have yet to follow through on anti-abortion activists’ demands for more aggressive actions, such as the convocation of a special legislature. sessions to approve more or more aggressive laws. There are similar near-deadlocks in states like Nebraska and Iowa.
The reasoning behind those decisions has been scrutinized, and officials like DeSantis have pointed to existing or pending laws, but the broader trend is clear: Abortion rights, now as before, are broadly popular across party lines. In the polls and, as was shown on Tuesday, in them too.