The UN has called for international inspectors to have access to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant after it was bombed at the weekend. But how dangerous is the situation and what can happen next?
Why is the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant important?
The plant, built in the Soviet era, is the largest nuclear reactor in Europe. Its six pressurized water reactors (of which at least two are operational) are important to Kyiv, as they can produce power for up to 4 million homes.
Located on the southern bank of the Dnieper River in Enerhodar, southwest of the city of Zaporizhzhia itself, the plant occupies an extremely important strategic position for both Russian and Ukrainian forces, who have been vying for control of the site since the beginning of the war. .
The presence of the water-cooled reactors, as well as a spent fuel storage facility, at the large and sprawling site has led Russia to use it as a so-called “protected” artillery park, using the facilities to fire at Ukrainian positions in the belief that Ukraine would not fire and risk a nuclear accident.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has accused the Russians of using the plant as a “nuclear shield”, saying: “Of course, the Ukrainians cannot react lest there be a terrible accident with the nuclear plant.” . This has allowed Russia to target areas such as the city of Nikopol across the river, which has come under heavy shelling in recent weeks.
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Why is there a renewed concern?
There are two issues fueling deepening anxiety about the situation at the plant, which is under Russian control but employs Ukrainian personnel. International nuclear safety officials have worried about a lack of spare parts, access for routine reactor maintenance and a lack of contact with personnel, all of which have been disrupted by the ongoing conflict.
A second problem is the gradual firing of missiles around the plant over the weekend, with the Russians and Ukrainians pointing the finger of responsibility. According to Energoatom, Ukraine’s nuclear authority, the impacts were near the spent fuel storage area and the operator claimed that Russian troops are “specifically targeting” the containers despite the presence of Russian troops in place
However, it’s worth noting that Ukrainian officials have sometimes exaggerated claims about the nuclear risks posed by the conflict in both Txornobyl and Zaporizhzhia, so it’s unclear at this point how dangerous the incident was. ‘this weekend itself.
While Ukraine’s goal of seeing the plant treated as a demilitarized zone is an entirely prudent call, it would also serve a military goal by denying Russian forces the use of a plant from which they can bomb relative impunity.
A final dimension is the claim by Ukrainian intelligence – reported in Ukrainian media – that Russia has mining facilities, citing the head of the Russian armed forces’ radiation, chemical and biological defense troops, the Major General Valery Vasiliev, who now commands Zaporizhzhia. garrison, saying: “There will be Russian land or a scorched desert.”
However, a major and deliberate detonation in Zaporizhzhia would threaten southern Russia and Ukraine with nuclear contamination, so it is important to distinguish between “nuclear blackmail” and a serious threat that would have repercussions for Russia itself.
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So how dangerous is the bombing around the plant?
Reactors are designed to withstand a substantial impact, think of a civilian plane crashing into them, protected by steel and reinforced concrete as well as fire protection systems, although a substantial missile hit could be more problematic
The buildings that house the spent fuel, however, are not built with a similar level of protection, meaning that the release of spent fuel material is likely a greater risk to combat than a catastrophic breach of a reactor, yet that more limited.
The reality is that the plant’s operational safety situation is probably the most serious problem, as the deterioration of the safety regime caused by the conflict has been exacerbated by the risk of a strike.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Mariano Grossi, described the current safety oversight crisis as a dire threat to public health and the environment in Ukraine, and far beyond its borders , and called the situation “completely out of control.”
“You have a catalog of things that should never happen at any nuclear facility,” he said. Although Grossi has suggested a mission to the plant, ironically Ukraine has been blocking the initiative, with Energoatom arguing as far back as June that any visit would legitimize Russia’s presence there.