However, some of the remnants of this storm could drift eastward, help cause a storm off the east coast of Mexico and threaten Florida this weekend.
“The global model guide continues to suggest that Agatha’s remnants will be absorbed by a larger low-level cyclonic turn over southeastern Mexico over the next few days, with this new system having potential for development in the northwest. from the Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the afternoon. this week, “the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning.
A low-level cyclonic turn is a large-scale pattern of rotating winds in the low atmosphere.
The NHC believes that there is a 30% chance that this turn and the remains of Agatha will generate a tropical depression over the next two days and an even higher probability, 70%, that it will develop over the next 5 days.
“Regardless of the new development, Agatha’s wreckage and the biggest turnaround will continue to cause heavy rains and potentially fatal flash floods in parts of southeastern Mexico over the next two days,” the NHC said.
If it becomes a tropical cyclone over the next few days, it will likely be between the Yucatan and the far south of Florida.
And that’s worrisome for some meteorologists.
A storm with a name could affect Florida later this week
For the system to become a named storm, it would have to reach the strength of the tropical storm (39 mph + sustained winds) and form a circulation center.
If it did, it would become the first so-called storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season and it would be called Alex.
Forecast models do not handle this possible storm well and predict two completely different results.
As of Tuesday morning, the U.S. model is showing weak, disorganized disruption in South Florida this weekend.
On the other hand, the European model shows a stronger storm hitting southwest Florida.
The inconsistency between these two models is not surprising. Until this storm moves off the east coast of Mexico and forms a center of circulation, it will be difficult for these forecast models to be predicted with extreme accuracy.
“Tropical models work very well after a low-pressure center is located by observations or satellite,” explains CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “This potential storm doesn’t have a location on the map yet, and right now the models are just guessing where it could form. It will take a little longer and the model will run later to generate a potential track and size.” .
But the most worrying thing is where the NHC believes it could be formed and where the European model predicts the path of this possible storm. Just south of the Gulf of Mexico.
“The biggest concern is that if we get a circulation center to form, it’s likely to be very close to or above the loop current south of the gulf … This is where the deepest, warmest water is. right now, “says Myers. “It’s where the storms quickly intensify.”
So this possible development is something that needs to be followed very closely this week.
“If a traffic center isn’t formed, we move on to the next one because it’s going to be a very intense and long season,” Myers says.
The hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, and NOAA predicts a season above average.
“The water will get a lot warmer from here and the potential for storms doesn’t even come until September,” Myers says.
Why won’t she be called Agatha
If something is formed and made strong enough, the system will no doubt be given a new name and will not be referred to as Agatha.
“The system should maintain an identifiable closed circulation as it moves over Mexico and emerges in the Gulf of Mexico,” said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and head of communications and public affairs at the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
And since Agatha dissipated in southern Mexico on Tuesday morning and will not maintain its circulation or its focal point, it will not retain its name.
It’s incredibly rare for a storm to keep circulating as it traverses rugged terrain in Mexico.
“There’s nothing in the historical record where a tropical cyclone remained intact on a walk from the eastern Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic basin,” Feltgen told CNN.
However, the opposite has happened.
“In 2016‘ Otto ’moved from the Atlantic basin to the eastern Pacific Ocean and retained its name,” Feltgen said.
Otto, instead of traveling through Mexico as Agatha has done, crossed the area between Nicaragua and Costa Rica.