China’s military exercises show that Beijing does not need to invade Taiwan to control it, but can strangle the self-ruled island, cutting it off from the outside world, Chinese and US analysts say.
Meng Xiangqing, a professor at the PLA’s National Defense University, said the six areas were chosen to show how China could cut off Taiwan’s ports, attack its most important military facilities and cut off access to foreign forces that might come to Taiwan’s aid.
A Taiwanese Air Force F-5 fighter jet takes off from Chihhang Air Base on the island as China conducts extensive military exercises nearby. (Getty)
“Connect the six areas in a line, like a bow, with the knot of the bow just in the southwest direction,” Meng said in an interview with state broadcaster CCTV.
The Communist Party of China considers democratic Taiwan its territory, although it has never controlled it.
Uniting Taiwan with the mainland is a cornerstone of Chinese policy and President Xi Jinping has not ruled out using force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.
Meng noted that the northern exercise areas had successfully sealed off Taiwan from Okinawa, the island where both Japan and the US base substantial military assets.
In the southern areas, the PLA proved it could control the Bashi Channel, “the only way in and out of the South China Sea,” he said.
And in the eastern areas, China’s forces demonstrated that accurate Chinese missile fire could force foreign warships to withdraw from Taiwan’s waters, he added.
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“This is an unprecedented encirclement of the island of Taiwan,” Meng said.
And on Monday, China issued a warning to say the drills were continuing.
US President Joe Biden said he was concerned about China’s recent military drills but did not believe China would take additional measures as tensions rise following a visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
“I’m not worried, but I’m worried that they’re moving as much as they are. But I don’t think they’re going to do anything else,” Biden said.
In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, an air force pilot from the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) looks on as it conducts combat training exercises sets around the island of Taiwan. (AP)
A trigger for long-term planned exercises
The exercises began after Pelosi angered Beijing by visiting Taipei last week to show her support for democracy on the island.
Beijing flooded the seas and skies around Taiwan with ships and jets: Up to 80 Chinese aircraft and warships were spotted in the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, according to Taiwan’s defense ministry.
In previous days, the PLA also fired rockets at small Taiwanese-controlled islands near the mainland and launched ballistic missiles further afield, with some flying over Taiwan and landing in the ocean east of the island.
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China launched military exercises near Taiwan last week following a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The areas marked in red show where the initial exercises of the People’s Liberation Army took place. (CNN)
A map of China’s six exercise areas “clearly indicates where the Chinese think are the key operational areas for their strategic intimidation of Taiwan,” wrote Mick Ryan, a former Australian army general and deputy fellow at the Center of Strategic and International Studies. on Twitter.
Commercial ships and aircraft were warned to stay away from the exercise areas, forcing shippers and airlines to arrange alternative routes.
Carl Schuster, former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii, said the six-zone blockade showed that any takeover of Taiwan could start with an isolation strategy.
“The exercise demonstrated that blockade in a conflict does not require a constant naval presence on the coast, but that maritime and air traffic can be deterred by air and missile threats in support of a maritime blockade,” Schuster said .
“The exercise … suggests that Beijing would first isolate Taiwan and resort to air and missile strikes in hopes of breaking Taipei’s political will. A costly invasion would likely be a last resort,” Schuster said.
In this photo provided by China’s Xinhua News Agency, a People’s Liberation Army sailor aboard the Taiwanese frigate Lan Yang during naval exercises. (AP)
Schuster said much of what Beijing demonstrated had been in the works for some time.
The drills coincided with standard military exercises on the PLA’s training schedule, but he said Pelosi’s visit allowed China to make a bigger statement.
“The size, geographic extent and complexity of the exercise reflect months of planning,” he said.
“This exercise marks the latest escalation in China’s expanding military exercise and Taiwan intimidation campaign.”
He said he hopes the PLA will continue to pressure Taiwan and could also send a message to Japan with more drills in the north of the island.
New drills are also likely in the South China Sea, the 3 million square kilometers of water, almost all of which China claims as its sovereign territory, where Beijing has built military fortifications on disputed islands, Schuster said .
While the ongoing exercises will allow the PLA to refine its tactics and operations, they may also provide an opportunity for adversaries to learn about the modern Chinese military, experts say.
“Nothing gives a better insight into the true capability of an army than seeing them deployed,” Ryan wrote on Twitter.
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, left, and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, who presented the American politician with the territory’s highest civilian honor. (AP)
With last week’s drills, Xi had to show he would not waver in his commitment to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control, Schuster said.
Pelosi’s visit to the island posed a direct threat to present an alternative vision of democracy.
“(Pelosi) leads the democratically elected branch that originates U.S. government funding and economic policies. His position and role make his commitment to Taiwan’s security particularly significant,” Schuster said.
“Unable to bully her, Xi had to demonstrate China’s power: diplomatically, economically and militarily,” he said.
While the military exercises gave Xi strong visuals to support his decision, China also hit Pelosi and the US government with a series of sanctions.
The measures include canceling future phone calls and meetings between Chinese and US military leaders and suspending cooperation on issues such as the repatriation of illegal immigrants, legal assistance in criminal matters and the fight against transnational crimes.
Talks on climate change were also suspended.
Beijing also announced measures targeting Pelosi and members of her immediate family.
“The goal is intimidation by applying all the elements of Chinese power,” Schuster said.
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