Around 28,000 students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland who applied to go to university are without an offer just days before their A-level results are published, according to data experts.
In what promises to be one of the most competitive rounds of university admissions in recent memory, analysis by DataHE found that the total number of 18-year-olds without an offer has risen by around 16,000 this phase of the admission process in 2019 to 27,850. in 2022.
Part of the increase is due to more applicants than ever before, but experts say it is also likely to have been driven by increased rejection rates and more conservative offering by institutions with high rates they want to slow down. recruitment after the excesses of the pandemic.
According to Mark Corver, co-founder of DataHE, the risk of applicants not having a single offer at this time has increased from 6% to 9% in two years, a 50% jump proportionally, back to levels seen by last time when the universities. had to stay within the number controls.
“This will feel like a shock after almost a decade of steadily improving the chances of getting an offer,” Corver said.
His warning came as England’s exam regulator Ofqual and university admissions service Ucas sent an unprecedented letter to all A-level students to try to reassure them as the tension rises ahead of Thursday’s results day.
The letter says almost 300,000 18-year-olds in the UK have a firm offer, 7,000 more than last year and the highest on record, with 30,000 courses available in cleaning.
However, there is still great uncertainty. After two years of above-average grades during the pandemic, when exams were canceled and work was graded by the teacher, the government asked regulators to set limits so grades were halfway between 2019 and 2021, with notes to return to the previous ones. pandemic levels by 2023.
Last week it was reported that tens of thousands of A-level students with offers from their preferred university could be at risk of losing their places due to a predicted 10 percentage point drop in the number of A grades and A * in England, Wales. and Northern Ireland.
After record results last year, when 44.8% of grades were A or A* at A level, industry experts estimate that with the government’s recalibration, this will drop to 35% (compared to with 25.5% in 2019).
While almost one in five (19.1%) grades were A* last year, this year the proportion is expected to drop to 13.5%. Similarly, the number of A* to C grades is expected to fall from 88.5% in 2021 to 82%.
Corver said students, even those without offers, shouldn’t get too anxious. “There are places, but they may be at universities or for subjects that may not have been on an applicant’s initial shortlist and may require some research and flexibility to take advantage of them.”
Universities receiving A-level results on Friday night confirmed there is still room, but warn clearing will be busy and say students may need to consider related subjects and alternative institutions to secure a place.
Meanwhile, Ucas disputed DataHE’s analysis, which is based on Ucas data on the number of students “free to be placed in clearing”.
Clare Marchant, chief executive of Ucas, said a record number of 18-year-olds applied this year and its data showed that more than 97% of those students received at least one offer, which also be a record
“There are many reasons why students are eligible to find a place in housekeeping. In some cases, students, who are very wise and constantly evaluate their options, increasingly see housekeeping as a great option to find a place
“The vast majority of universities and colleges will have courses available this week and my advice to students without a place is to continue your research and contact Ucas if you need support during the clearing.”
Alix Delaney, head of admissions at the University of East Anglia, said: “We expect it to be a very busy clearing, with lots of activity and lots of universities with vacancies.
“While there may be some disappointment for those who have applied to very competitive courses, I believe there is still capacity throughout the system for students to find a place at a university, if they want to go to study this September .
“Perhaps they should think about related alternative courses, subjects or universities.”
The Department of Education was approached for comment.