“It will displace the whole region and it will be another action similar to what happened in Ukraine,” the president said. “And so it’s a load that’s even stronger.”
It was not the first time Biden had commented on Taiwan’s defense, but it was certainly the most unequivocal he had ever been, and therefore sensitive on numerous fronts.
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First, the remarks represent an apparent shift from the traditional notion of “strategic ambiguity,” a policy designed to minimize the risk of direct conflict with China, which considers Taiwan as part of its territory. controls it.
Second, while Biden claimed that the U.S. has a “commitment” to defend Taiwan, the U.S. does not in fact have any mutual defense pacts with the country. Even the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which is often cited by the administration, commits the U.S. to providing weapons and other supports, but carries no military intervention obligation if China invades.
And third, the comments pave the way for further tensions with Beijing, two months after Biden held a two-hour phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping in which, according to the official reading, “the president reiterated that US policy on Taiwan has not changed and stressed that the United States continues to oppose any unilateral change in the status quo. “
As expected, China wasted no time in expressing its “strong dissatisfaction and strong opposition” to Biden’s latest comments and warned the United States to “be cautious with words and deeds” on the issue.
And at a time when Xi is under increasing pressure at home – and ahead of the important 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party – some analysts are concerned that instead of deterring Beijing from acting against Taiwan. , could be provoked.
“If you are in a corner, you may feel that your claim to sovereignty over Taiwan is being challenged and that you have to respond,” says Glaser.
“That answer could be sending dozens of planes to Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, or it could be a real kinetic attack, or anything in between. So that’s why I’d like to see that “Strengthening deterrence in the Taiwan Straits. This requires coherence and a clear policy statement.”
Clarity and consistency, however, are not always the strengths of this administration.
Remember Biden’s historic speech in Poland in March, when he declared, without a script, that Russian President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power”?
A White House official immediately withdrew his comments and told reporters, “The president’s point was that Putin could not be allowed to wield power over his neighbors or the region. He was not talking about Putin’s power in Russia. nor of regime change “.
A similar clean-up has taken place today, with the White House immediately insisting that the US official position had not changed, a statement later repeated by Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin.
“As the president said, our policy has not changed. He reiterated our One China policy and our commitment to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. He also reiterated our commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with the military means to defend itself, “the statement said.
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But the latest comments come even after the president made equally confusing comments about Taiwan’s defense of China in August and October, which also needed to be “clarified” – and in the context of the lessons learned by Ukraine, which has now been fighting for three months. a bloody war against the Russian incursion.
So who is telling the truth about the “official” US position: the president or his advisers?
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