Russia may be in Ukraine to stay after 100 days of war

When Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine in late February, the Russian president promised that his forces would not occupy the country. But as the invasion reached its 100th day, Moscow seemed less and less willing to relinquish the territory it had taken during the war.

The ruble is now an official currency in the South Kherson region, along with the Ukrainian hryvnia.

The mother, on the right, and the sister of Army Colonel Oleksander Makhachek mourned the coffin with their remains during a funeral in Zhytomyr, Ukraine, on Friday, June 3, 2022. According to comrades-in-arms, Makashkek died fighting against Russian forces when a shell fell. in office on May 30th. (AP Photo / Natacha Pisarenko) (AP)

Accelerated Russian passports are offered to residents there and in Russian-controlled parts of the Zaporizhzhia region.

The Kremlin-based administrations in both regions have talked about plans to join Russia.

Moscow-backed leaders of separatist areas in the predominantly Russian-speaking Donbas region of eastern Ukraine have expressed similar intentions.

Putin recognized the self-proclaimed separatist republics as independent two days before launching the invasion, and fierce fighting has been raging in the east for weeks as Russia tries to “liberate” the entire Donbas.

The first 100 days of the Ukrainian war in 100 images

The Kremlin has largely stayed on top of its plans for the cities, towns and villages it has bombed, besieged and finally captured.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said it will be up to the people living in the occupied areas to decide on their status.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week that enemy forces now control almost 20% of the country’s territory. Before the war, Russia controlled 7%, including the Crimean peninsula and parts of the Donbas.

But in a video message marking the first 100 days of the war, Zelenskyy made it clear that Ukraine will not be sent easily.

“We have been defending Ukraine for 100 days. The victory will be ours,” he said.

Ukrainian soldiers have flowers during a funeral for Colonel Oleksander Makhachek in Zhytomyr, Ukraine, on Friday, June 3, 2022. According to comrades-in-arms, Makhachek died fighting Russian forces when a shell fell on his position on 30 May. (Photo by AP / Natacha Pisarenko) (AP)

For his part, U.S. President Joe Biden said he believes “there will have to be a negotiated agreement” to end the war.

Asked if Ukraine should give up territory in exchange for peace, the president said, “It’s their territory,” and “I won’t tell them what to do and what not to do.”

Initially, at least, the annexation of more Ukrainian lands was not believed to be the main target of the invasion. It was widely believed that the Kremlin intended to install a pro-Moscow government in Kyiv that would prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and moving further away from Russian influence.

But now Moscow is unlikely to release its military gains, according to political analysts.

“Of course (Russia) intends to stay,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior member of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

For Russia, “it is a pity to give away what has been done, even if it was not part of the original plan.”

Russian forces captured much of Kherson and neighboring Zaporizhzhia earlier in the war, gaining control of most of Ukraine’s Azov Sea coast and securing a partial land corridor on the Crimean peninsula. Russia annexed Ukraine in 2014.

Army Colonel Oleksander Makhachek’s mother cries during her funeral in Zhytomyr, Ukraine, on Friday, June 3, 2022. According to comrades-in-arms, Makhachek died fighting Russian forces when a shell landed at his position. on May 30th. (AP Photo / Natacha) Pisarenko) (AP)

They completed the takeover last month with the capture of the port city of Mariupol after a three-month siege.

Residents of the cities of Kherson and Melitopol took to the streets to protest the occupation, confronting Russian soldiers in the squares. Ukrainian officials have warned that Russia could hold a referendum in Kherson to declare the region an independent state.

Petro Kobernyk, 31, an activist from a non-governmental organization who fled Kherson with his wife, said Russian security forces were cracking down on pro-Ukrainian activists.

“Dinners of pro-Ukrainian activists, including my friends, are being held in the basements of the security services,” Kobernyk said by telephone.

“Those who actively express their position are abducted and tortured, threatened and forced out of the region.”

Russian forces keep people in an “information vacuum”, and Ukrainian websites are no longer available, Kobernyk said.

His claims could not be independently verified.

But some in the captured areas of Ukraine have welcomed a Russian takeover.

“I’ve wanted to live in Russia since I was a child, and now I realize I don’t even have to move anywhere,” said Vadim Romanova, a 17-year-old from Mariupol.

Relatives of Army Colonel Oleksander Makhachek wept during his funeral in Zhytomyr, Ukraine, on Friday, June 3, 2022. According to comrades-in-arms, Makhachek died fighting Russian forces when a shell landed at his position. on May 30th. (Photo by AP / Natacha Pisarenko) (AP)

In Russian-occupied cities in southern Ukraine, people with pro-Kremlin views replaced mayors and other local leaders who went missing in what Ukrainian officials and media said were kidnappings. Russian flags were raised and Russian state broadcasts promoting the Kremlin’s version of the invasion supplanted Ukrainian television channels.

The Russian ruble was introduced as the second official currency in both the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, at least in the Russian-controlled parties, and pro-Russian administrations began offering a “single social payment” of 10,000 rubles (about $ 218). AUD). to local residents.

An office of the Russian Migration Services in Melitopol was opened, which received applications for Russian citizenship from residents of the captured southern regions through a fast-track procedure.

The procedure was first implemented in 2019 in rebel-held areas of the Donbas, where more than 700,000 people have received Russian passports.

FACT SHEET – People queue to register at the Displaced Aid Distribution Center in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on May 5, 2022. The Russian ruble is now the official currency in the Kherson region in just like the Ukrainian hryvnia. Russian passports are being offered in Moscow-controlled areas of the Zaporizhzhia region through a quick procedure. (AP Photo / Evgeniy Maloletka, File) (AP)

Senior Russian officials began touring the regions, promoting the prospects of the territories to integrate into Russia. Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin visited Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in mid-May and indicated that they could be part of “our Russian family.”

A senior official of the Kremlin’s ruling United Russia party, Andrei Turchak, said this even more bluntly at a meeting with Kherson residents: “Russia is here forever.”

Members of the pro-Kremlin administrations in both regions soon announced that the zones would try to be incorporated into Russia. Although it is not yet clear when or if it will happen, it looks like Russia is investigating.

Oleg Kryuchkov, a Russian-annexed Crimean official, said this week that the two southern regions have switched to Russian Internet providers.

A destroyed Ukrainian tank in Chernihiv, northeast of Kyiv, was an early target of Russia’s offensive. Although they failed to capture the city, Russian forces struck large parts of Chernihiv and the surrounding region in an attempt to advance on the capital Kyiv. (Getty)

State media reported images of people queuing to get Russian SIM cards for their mobile phones. Kryuchkov also said that both regions are switching to the Russian country code, +7, from the Ukrainian +380.

Russian MP Leonid Slutsky, a member of the Russian delegation in stalled peace talks with Ukraine, said that referendums to join Russia could take place in the Donbas, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions from July.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov was evasive when asked on Friday if Russian authorities planned to hold a vote in the area, saying it would depend on the course of Russia’s offensive.

Ukrainian firefighters try to extinguish a fire in a warehouse after a Russian attack in Kharkiv, in eastern Ukraine, on Monday, May 30, 2022. (AP Photo / Bernat Armangue) (AP)

Tatiana Stanovaya, founder and CEO of R.Politik, an independent think tank on Russian politics, said she believes Putin does not want to rush the referendums and runs the risk of being denounced as a hoax.

“He wants the referendum to be real, so that the West can see that, in fact, Russia was right. People want to live with Russia,” Stanovaya said.

Ukrainian experts say it will not be easy for the Kremlin to gather genuine support in southern Ukraine.

Deadly risk faced by Ukrainians returning home

Volodymyr Fesenko, of the Kyiv-based think tank Penta Center, said most residents of the southern regions identify as Ukrainians much more strongly than people in areas closer to Russia or who have been led. by Moscow-backed separatists for the past eight. years.

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