As we move into the fall season, more and more snow is creeping into the upcoming forecast, and over the next seven days in particular, there’s a chance for 10 of Canada’s 13 provinces and territories see some flakes flying early next week.
When does it historically start to snow?
While there are known cases of unusually early and impressive snowfall events in September, the most notable being Calgary’s 12 cm of snowfall on September 8, 2014, snow typically begins to reach more Canadian communities in mid or end of October
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Below are some select cities with the first snowfall (1 or more) in the last 20 years:
- Vancouver – November 18, 2011 – 1 cm
- Calgary – September 8, 2014 – 12 cm
- Winnipeg – October 5, 2002 – 4 cm
- Toronto – October 27, 2018 – 2 cm
- Montreal – October 17, 2015 – 1 cm
- Halifax – 28 October 2011 – 1.8cm
- Sant Joan – October 14, 2009 – 5 cm
- Yellowknife – September 16, 2010 – 1 cm
The snow forecast we’re seeing over the next week:
A boundary sliding across eastern Canada as we head into the end of the week and into the long Thanksgiving weekend will be accompanied by a burst of modified arctic air.
Temperatures in some northern Ontario, Quebec and Labrador will be cool enough to see rain showers change to wet mixed showers.
Snow amounts will be very limited for most and combined with the warm ground will keep most of the snow from sticking to the ground. An exception will be across the Laurentian Mountains where a combination of elevation and higher forecast totals may allow some snow to accumulate temporarily.
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So far, most of western Canada hasn’t been able to feel the reality of fall, with summer 2.0 basically dominating the weather pattern for much of September and into early October.
It’s not entirely unheard of to see surprise snowfalls in September in parts of the West, as Calgary is a city that has experienced some September snowfalls in the past. But not this September. Looking at the monthly daily average, last September was the warmest in a decade. Last September’s average daytime high in Calgary was 22.4°C.
Early next week, a low is forecast to move south pushing parts of western Canada into a change in weather pattern, bringing much cooler temperatures. With that, will come an extended limit of snow.
Parts of the territories, BC and the western prairies will likely see some snow early next week, with higher elevations the most likely location. We also cannot rule out some communities at lower elevations, especially when temperatures near the freezing mark and below during the night hours.
Be sure to check back for upcoming snow sightings across Canada.