When lawmakers gathered in small packages to conspire in the atrium of Portcullis House for coffee for breakfast, the mood among Boris Johnson’s faithful was optimistic. There were reliable predictions that the prime minister could keep the number of rebels below 100.
When the Prime Minister left the 1922 Committee, the new line was that one vote was enough. It was a measure of how a seemingly chaotic, helpless rebel operation had managed to sow enough doubts in the minds of his colleagues, with a counter-offer based on gross numbers and aimed at proving that Johnson was an electoral responsibility.
Critics of the Prime Minister’s numbers outperformed him, but went too far in his prediction. The result is almost the worst possible.
Guardian Graph
Some of Johnson’s strongest opponents were in parliament before the arrival of his colleagues. They knew that the threshold of 54 was far exceeded. “We’ve come a long way,” one said. “Many of the letters were post-dated until after the jubilee. We are as prepared as we could have been. It’s been a long time coming. “
A former minister who had seen a first rebel spreadsheet said much would depend on the prime minister’s proposals to his colleagues over the next few hours.
“We are aiming for 130, if we exceed it, it exceeds our expectations. I have seen much higher numbers than this. If you report that there are less than 100 deputies against you, you will be shocked.”
Leadership candidates had also quietly made interim preparations. At least three candidates had websites ready to launch and have courted donors in recent weeks, an ambitious MP said. “I don’t buy the line that everyone should be terribly shy. If you want to be prime minister, you have to be prepared to present the case.”
But in the morning it was the prime minister who had the advantage. He was told on Sunday that he would face a vote, following a call from Sir Graham Brady late in the afternoon before leaving to watch the jubilee pageant. Only then did he call his team and fire the starting gun with a long-prepared plan.
The strategy had been devised by Lynton Crosby, with prepared lines written by Chief Assistant Ross Kempsell, who had just re-advised the Australian Liberal Party.
Grant Shapps, the transportation secretary, took over the sponsors ’spreadsheet. Inside the CCHQ, on Matthew Parker Street, party leaders began calling on the chairs of the associations to persuade them to present the prime minister’s case to their deputies.
There were carefully placed “properties”: an opinion piece by Chief of Staff Steve Barclay in ConservativeHome, a letter from conservative donors to the Sun. When most lawmakers fought pipe strikes to break into their offices, cabinet ministers and loyalists came out of the traps with a burst of tweets.
But his rivals also had bombs to fire. Jeremy Hunt’s letter expressing his distrust of the Prime Minister was one, followed by the resignation of John Penrose, the Prime Minister’s anti-corruption tsar.
The mood was changing. A cabinet minister who was heading to the coffee queue at Portcullis House was briefed on the briefing that there were fewer than 100 rebels, and commented that it was “nonsense”.
At mid-morning, deputies from all sides entered the atrium of Portcullis House. Prime Minister PPS Joy Morrissey greeted his colleagues with an enthusiastic smile, and other Johnson-backed ministers such as James Cleverly and Will Quince worked in the room.
No doubt there were those who feared recrimination if there was no quick demonstration of public loyalty. A cabinet minister spoke of a certain panic when they tried to write his supportive tweet from the constituency in London, and then found that his train was entering a long tunnel.
Another Johnson supporter, who had been planning a quiet return trip from his northern constituency, spoke of throwing a suitcase in the back of the car to drive 250 miles at breakneck speed.
Opponents of the Prime Minister were also working in the corridors, including Tobias Ellwood, who had denounced the leader of his party from the benches of the Commons. But most of his critics kept his operations close, in his parliamentary offices.
A former cabinet minister, not a fan of Johnson, descended the stairs from his office to the cafe’s queue and hurriedly withdrew after seeing the gang of reporters.
Although there is no rebel group on WhatsApp, there were different personalities who did the math to try to oust the Prime Minister.
“But the big unknown is 109,” he said, referring to parliamentarians elected in 2019.
The vote has deeply divided his comrades in the 2019 elections. “My seat is fucked up. Even if Boris wins, Labor will put up their pamphlets that all these MPs thought was not a proper prime minister,” he said. of Johnson supporters.
Another MP from that admission said he believed 40% of new MPs planned to vote against the prime minister, a startling accusation about his ability to maintain goodwill.
“Frankly, anyone would be better off in my seat, Penny, Nadhim, Tom Tugendhat, maybe even Liz,” the MP said. “We had to take that to heart.”
He said critics would be silenced if the prime minister won convincingly. “I will go on if the Prime Minister wins well, if he wins two-thirds. I will not like it, but I will not be an idiot like David Davis, who sinks in the back benches.”
A former minister who said he would vote against the prime minister said he had felt tortured in talks with voters over the jubilee weekend. “People say you’re a good MP, we can’t vote for you as long as he’s a leader. About 40% of my soft voters are in this category. Pollution will only increase. “
Johnson made his first public appearance shortly after 4 p.m. on the first floor of Portcullis House, entering with a guard of honor – Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Barclay – in a show that his even more ambitious rivals they were believers.
Addressing his deputies, Johnson attacked. He was bombastic with his actions, promised future tax cuts and said he did not regret attending his staff march.
He glanced at Ellwood, who had written an opinion piece suggesting that the UK should consider a return to the single market, saying it wanted to avoid “getting into a hellish groundhog day debate over merit. to belong to the single market “.
Only two critics raised their voices: Mark Harper and John Baron.
Johnson was defiant and told Harper, “I would do it again.”
Sir Charles Walker, who had denounced the Prime Minister’s strategy of blocking the floor of the Commons, told his colleagues that he thought they should accept the Prime Minister’s apologies.
“Sometimes you’ve made me absolutely wild,” he said with a laugh. But he warned: “Defending a prime minister is horrible and terrible.”
As deputies left the room, two former comrades informed reporters from opposing sides, Steve Baker and Jacob Rees-Mogg, both veterans of the plot against Theresa May. Baker said he thought there were many thought to be forgiven. But he said he couldn’t.
Rees-Mogg replied: “I’m afraid I think Steve just made a mistake. I think some of my colleagues are risking the Brexit we’ve fought so hard for.”
Johnson could survive by winning with just one vote, Rees-Mogg said. “One is enough. What a Frenchman has for Brexit: an egg is an egg.” It was a marked change of approach.
When MPs left in 1922, David Canzini and Barclay were in stealthy talks with agonizing-looking MPs.
Johnson retired to his House of Commons office for once with his hesitant colleagues.
But it was clear that the mood was getting darker. Deputies asked why the prime minister had not consulted them. “I was at least expecting to be asked,” smiled one on the way to vote. Another MP from the “red wall” – who has sent a letter in private – said no whip had contacted him even to ask his position.
From 10 a.m. to 6 p.m., a small queue had already formed at the door of Room 10 of the committee, where deputies had their phones confiscated. Rumors had circulated that the whips wanted a ballot picture to prove their loyalty.
Sir Peter Bottomley, the father of the house, was at the head of the line, along with some of Johnson’s staunchest supporters on the red wall: Stuart Anderson, Chris Clarkson, Eddie Hughes, all received by Morrissey, who had the deputies.
On social media, however, Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, colleagues Andrew Bowie, David Mundell and John Lamont, and Tewkesbury MP Laurence Robertson said they would vote against the Prime Minister.
The queue to vote was winding down the main hallway, although cabinet ministers tried to jump the line, including Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab. May arrived with a full embroidered party dress and bright heels, not a celebration of her rival’s hardships, she insisted, but a prior engagement. However, his colleagues in the queue could not hide their amusement.
At 9 p.m., Brady read the result in the wood-paneled room where May also knew her fate three years earlier. The room was filled with supporters of Johnson, who applauded the verdict: “The Conservative Party does have confidence in Boris Johnson.” But many could not hide their slaps in the face of the number of rebels: 148.
The ministers looked like ashes as they left the room.
With a few more hours, Johnson’s critics believe they could have won. “It’s over,” said a red-walled deputy coming out of the room. “It’s over.”