The tumult and shouts in the Conservative Party are dead. But the aspirants to captains and kings have not left. Boris Johnson won Monday’s confidence vote, but he can’t ignore the depth of the opposition.
Speculation about how long the prime minister can last is ultimately futile. The course of future events is yet to be defined. Johnson has been given the right to give the government a fresh start. He deserves this opportunity when he looks at everything he has done for the country since he became prime minister.
But he has to take a step back. The Privilege Committee’s investigation is still ongoing: it could easily come to some difficult conclusions and face real problems if MPs, the party and our voters do not then see a new positive agenda that justifies staying with it. as Prime Minister.
“Keep up the good work”, as he said in the Council of Ministers this week, will not be enough if the new job is the same as the old one. If so, the new boss will not be the same as the old boss.
It is the most difficult thing in the world to change the foundations of one’s instincts and behaviors, especially under pressure. I understand why so many people say that the Prime Minister will not be able to do that. But I know he is a remarkable person and very different from other politicians. We must not assume that change is impossible until it is demonstrated.
Every prime minister has weaknesses and blind spots. The question is whether they are able to compensate them, having the right people, giving good advice and establishing a clear political direction with broad support. Johnson probably has from now until the party conference to prove he can do it.
The main concern I hear from party members and potential Conservative voters is not about the party door. For better or worse, people have decided on this. It’s just that they don’t understand what the government is trying to do and why. Worse, as far as they understand it, they don’t particularly like it. They understand that the government is facing many difficult problems. They are willing to cut it a bit. But they want to know how to solve them, and they want to do it in a conservative way, not in a collectivist way of high cost and expense.
At the moment, the government is at risk of being overwhelmed by crises. Like the cockpit of a crashing airliner, the dashboard lights flash red. The government has to decide what problems should be solved now and what can be left for later. That means a plan: a strategy.
I hope the Prime Minister does three things now.
First, urgently stop the plane from touching the ground. Reverse tax increases and make a credible commitment to future cuts. Start fracking, be clear that North Sea gas is key to the future, and deduct VAT from energy bills. Announce a Brexit Opportunities Bill that removes large sections of EU law. Eliminate most UK tariffs immediately and eliminate the rest for three years. And complement the online harm law – advance only the non-controversial elements and don’t kill freedom of speech and our technology industry with the rest.
Second, to re-air the aircraft and establish a strategy for productivity and growth, a 10-year Conservative plan to restore the viability of the British state, based on individual and non-individual freedom and liberty. in collectivism: a smaller government, a freer housing market, an energy strategy that reduces carbon but prioritises security of supply, reformed education, a modernized NHS, benefits paid only to those who need them, rewards for those who save, even for pensions, a reformed civil service and a stronger union.
Obviously, all this cannot be done from the hoof. You need a serious strategy, with proper preparation, to deliver it. It will take some time. We should point out a positive proposal in the next manifesto addressed to those who see the country facing serious problems and want a serious plan to deal with it.
Finally, he stops the crew fight. The new team number 10 has improved things, but it is still not working well. Johnson should focus on what’s good: sell and explain, as chairman of the board, and get a serious deputy, either chief of staff or deputy prime minister, who can design and deliver the strategy. The ministerial team needs a refreshment, but once that is done, ministers should be able to continue their work, within the overall strategy, and stay or fall for the results, in the achievements, not in themselves. good performance in the Today program. that morning.
This is ambitious. I can see why so many people think that the Prime Minister can’t offer it. He doesn’t like to bother people. But any serious plan means making decisions. Many of us still want him to succeed and we will support him if he shows a sense of purpose.
But he has to show that things will be different now. If he does not want this Conservative government and its own leadership to be one with Nineveh and Tire, he must move quickly.