The Nova Scotia government says there have been 421 deaths from COVID-19 in the province since the pandemic began, but an infectious disease researcher says the number is likely to be underestimated by at least 200.
Tara Moriarty, an associate professor at the University of Toronto, called it a “conservative estimate” and warned that the number would grow.
“Many of Omicron’s deaths will begin to arrive,” he said.
He said it is important to note that under-processing of deaths by COVID-19 is “the norm” around the world, even in high-income countries.
Moriarty is part of a COVID-19 Resources Canada project team that makes models to help members of the public better understand the situation of COVID-19. Receives funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada for its work.
What is excess mortality?
Moriarty said that to get an accurate picture of how many deaths from COVID-19 are not reported, we need to look at excess mortality, which is when more deaths occur than expected.
Figures released by Statistics Canada on Thursday estimate that from March 2020 to mid-February 2022, it was estimated that there were 40,349 excess deaths in the country, or seven per cent more deaths than expected.
Tara Moriarty is an infectious disease expert and researcher at the University of Toronto. She says Nova Scotia is lagging behind in her death reports. (Lisa Xing / CBC)
However, the situation got much worse from January onwards due to Omicron.
“Canada experienced a new period of significant excess mortality from January 2022,” Statistics Canada said. “From the beginning to the end of January, 4,085 excess deaths were observed nationwide, or 13.2 percent more deaths than expected if there had been no pandemic.”
Statistics Canada estimates that since the pandemic began, there have been 181 fewer deaths than expected in Nova Scotia. However, data from Nova Scotia only goes back to October 23, 2021, which is before the Omicron wave hit the province.
About three-quarters of official deaths from COVID-19 in Nova Scotia have occurred since December.
“There are many more deaths still to come from Nova Scotia because Nova Scotia simply has not reported [that data]Moriarty said.
Of the 21 deaths from COVID-19 announced by the province during its weekly update on Thursday, officials said 19 of the deaths occurred between April 25 and May 30.
How Nova Scotia classifies deaths by COVID-19
In Nova Scotia, deaths attributed to COVID-19 capture both people who died from coronavirus infection and when COVID was thought to be a contributing factor.
“When people have underlying conditions it becomes more complicated, but if COVID may have contributed to the death, we report it as a COVID-related death,” Health and Welfare spokeswoman Marla MacInnis said in a statement.
“In more complex situations, such as a person dying with multiple contributing factors, cases are reviewed by doctors and / or public health to determine if COVID-19 may have contributed.”
In cases where the cause of death is unknown or a person is suspected of having COVID-19, evidence is provided to find evidence of the disease.
Moriarty said the deaths could still be lost.
“Many deaths in the elderly do not necessarily resemble the way we normally think COVID is a respiratory infection,” he said. “Many older people, when they develop respiratory infections, show no obvious symptoms, until they can no longer breathe and die.”
Nova Scotia’s largest face higher mortality rates
As of December 8, 2021, the average age of people who have died of COVID-19 in Nova Scotia is 81, according to the province.
He said the risk of death from COVID-19 is 125 times higher for people aged 70 or over than for people under 50.
Although Omicron has been categorized as a mild strain of COVID-19, Moriarty said the reality is much more complicated.
“What I want people to understand is that if you’re eligible for the fourth dose, get them right away,” he said.
“There’s still a lot of Omicron out there. And with each passing week, your vaccine protection, your third dose, is falling and [you] in fact, you are more and more likely to become infected and potentially die if you are susceptible. “
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