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In 1942, Winston Churchill tried to prepare the British people for a long conflict. “This is not the end,” he said, referring to the Allied victory over Egypt. “It simply came to our notice then. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. “When we think of these terms, what phase are we witnessing in the war in Ukraine?
We’re probably in the middle, says Gideon Rose, a Council on Foreign Relations scholar and author of an excellent book, “How Wars End.” He points out that every war starts out like a game of chess, with a dramatic attack and defense. If these opening salvos do not produce a decisive victory, the war enters a middle phase, in which both sides try to disconnect it to gain an advantage on the battlefield. “During the middle phase,” he told me, “neither side is interested in negotiating because each side is trying to win directly, improve their position on the battlefield, and therefore have a stronger position from which negotiate “. This is the period when emotions are high, which makes engagement difficult.
Finally, at some point, the fighters enter the final stage by one of two paths: either the tide of war turns irreversibly in favor of one side (as happened in 1918 and 1944), or an exhausted stagnation (as in Korea in mid-1951). “Right now, the parties come in at the end of the game and start playing for the final deal,” Rose noted.
At this stage, the West must help Ukraine strengthen its position. Kyiv needs more weapons and training. While there are real limits to how much the Ukrainians can absorb, Washington (and its allies in Europe and elsewhere) must redouble their efforts. They should also help Ukraine break the Russian blockade around Odessa. People have focused on the collapse of the Russian economy, which is likely to shrink by 11 percent this year. But Ukraine’s economy is likely to shrink 45 percent in 2022. Unless the country can export its grain from its Black Sea ports, it could face an economic calamity in the coming years.
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Most likely, this middle phase of the war will last for a while. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have the ability to win decisively, and neither is likely to give up easily. In the short term, this favors Russia. He has taken control of much of the Donbas. And because the West has not completely banned Russia’s energy exports, the Russian government has really benefited during this war. Bloomberg expects Russia’s oil and gas revenues for this year to be about $ 285 billion, compared to $ 236 billion last year. Meanwhile, it may now frustrate Ukraine’s export capacity. In the long run, sanctions are expected to hit Russia harder as the war progresses. At the same time, Ukraine has massive Western assistance, high morale and a willingness to fight to the end.
Although we are not yet in the final stages, it would be wise for Ukraine to start thinking about the end. In this way, it can develop a coherent position, align its strategy around it and gain international support. Former Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger was criticized for suggesting that Kyiv should not try to go beyond the previous one in February. 24 lines on the battlefield. In fact, at this point it seems very unlikely that Ukraine will even be able to reclaim all this territory by force, although it should keep trying. But it seems prudent to make this its goal: to reverse Russia’s territorial gains this year. Kyiv may then try to reclaim the territories lost before that in 2014 through negotiations. President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly suggested something similar. And this goal: to return to the previous one in February. 24 lines, would also be the one that would get more international support.
In the final stages of the war, the West — and the United States in particular — became key players. Russia is currently fighting directly against Ukraine. But if and when the conflict becomes a bit stagnant, the real struggle will be between Russia and the West. What will Russia give to achieve a relaxation of sanctions? What will the West ask for to end the isolation of Russia?
So far, Washington has opted for this, explaining that the Ukrainians must decide what they want and that Washington will not negotiate above its leaders. This is the right message of public support, but Ukraine and its Western partners must formulate a set of common war goals, coordinating the strategy around them, gaining international support, and using all the influence they have to to success. The goal must be an independent Ukraine, with full control of at least both territory and before February 24, and with some security commitments from the West.
The alternative to some kind of negotiated agreement would be an endless war in Ukraine, which would further devastate this country and its people, more than 5 million of whom have already fled. And the resulting disruptions in energy supply, food, and the economy would spiral everywhere, intensifying political unrest around the world. Surely it is worth looking for an end to the game that avoids this bleak future.