Nearly half of Ontario voters believe Doug Ford and the Conservative Progressives will win next week’s provincial election, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted by Ipsos exclusively for Global News, found that 45 percent of respondents said they thought PCs would be re-elected on June 2.
Fourteen percent said they believe Steven Del Duca and the Liberals will win election day, while 10 percent said the same for Andrea Horwath and the New Democratic Party of Ontario (NDP).
One in three – 32 percent – said they did not know who would win the provincial election.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, told Global News that the poll shows that there is a “real expectation among voters that no matter how they vote, Ford’s progressive Conservatives will win re-election.”
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“Even people who are currently voting for the Liberal Party – about 14 percent – or the NPD for about 10 percent, still think their parties will not win,” he said. “They are there with them in spirit, but they don’t necessarily think there will be an effect on the outcome.”
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The poll was conducted May 17-19 and found that six out of ten (61%) of Ontarians said they were “completely confident” they would vote on election day.
This is a very slight increase from the 58 percent of voters who ran in the 2018 provincial elections.
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However, Bricker said he expects the actual turnout to be lower.
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“My expectation is that it would be good if we get something close to the last campaign, but the last campaign was much more uncertain,” Bricker said. “When campaigns matter or the outcome is more uncertain, people tend to get more involved.”
He said he expects actual voter turnout on June 2 to be “slightly lower” than in 2018.
The poll found that 74% of those who have declared their support for Progressives-Conservatives said they would surely vote this time.
Meanwhile, 71% of NDP supporters, 65% of Liberals and 42% of Green Party supporters said they would surely vote on election day.
In addition, 51% of respondents who have decided who to vote for say they are “absolutely sure” of their choice to vote and will not change their minds before election day.
Sixty-six percent of PC voters said they were confident in their election, while 51 percent of Liberal voters, 36 percent of the NPD and 19 percent of Green Party voters said the same. .
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The data also show that the Liberals (20%), the NDP (19%) and the Green Party (17%) are all “almost equally favored” as the province’s second choice.
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However, the survey found that only 12 percent would choose computers as a second choice.
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Here’s a look at who the party’s supporters would choose as their second choice:
PC Voters:
- 18 percent would choose NDP as their second choice
- 17 percent would choose the Liberals as their second choice
- 14% would vote for the Green Party as a second option
- 20 percent said they would not vote if PCs could not vote as a first choice
Liberal voters:
- 41 percent would choose the NDP as a second option
- 18% would vote for PCs as a second option
- 12% would vote for the Green Party as a second option
- 10 per cent said they would not vote if they could not vote for the Liberals as a first choice
NDP voters:
- 42 percent would choose the Liberals as their second choice
- 28% would vote for the Green Party as a second option
- 16% would choose computers as a second choice
- 11 percent said they would not vote if they could not vote for the NPD as a first choice
Green voters:
- 22 percent would choose the Liberals as their second choice
- 21 percent would choose the NDP as their second choice
- 10 percent said they would vote for PCs as a second choice
- 21 percent said they would not vote if they could not vote for the Green Party as a first choice.
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30% of Ontarians say they agree that their main goal on election day is to prevent PCs from winning.
A total of 57% of respondents said they believe the Liberals are more likely to defeat the Conservatives, while 43% said the same of the NPD.
Among those who think the Liberals have more opportunities, 43 percent said they vote for the Liberals.
Of those who think the NPD is more likely to defeat PCs, 42 percent vote NDP.
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Bricker said in individual constituencies, this could lead to a strategic vote at the polls.
“Perhaps the Liberals and the NPD and the Greens will come together to choose a more progressive candidate and prevent conservative progressives from winning in a particular constituency,” he said. “But the problem with this strategy is that no one really seems to be sure on the progressive side what the best option is.”
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Bricker said that in most election cycles, progressive primaries “end at some point.”
This time, however, Bricker said the “progressive primaries continue.”
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With just one week to go before Ontario voters go to the polls, Bricker said parties “will have to prove they are the ones most likely to be able to form the official opposition and really take on the Conservative Progressive.” Party. “
Bricker said things were “going very well for conservative progressives.”
“Simply because opposition parties are divided everywhere and cannot be consolidated in a way that really threatens the incumbent,” he said.
Bricker said “for now” progressive voters are undecided.
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“There seems to be a little more momentum among Liberal Party supporters,” he said. “But, you know, concern is a powerful factor in election campaigns.”
He said “some of the most interesting races” to be seen in Ontario on June 2 are races where an NDP incumbent faces a “strong liberal rival.”
“These tend to be more downtown circuses, especially in the city of Toronto, but also in places like Ottawa, London, Kitchener, Waterloo, some of the largest centers in the province of Ontario.”
He said he expects the races to be “fairly close on many of these circuits”.
METHODOLOGY: This Ipsos survey was conducted May 17-19 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 1,501 people aged 18 and over was interviewed online (1,001) and by telephone (500). Quotas and weighting were used to balance demographics to ensure that the composition of the sample reflected that of the population according to census information. The accuracy of Ipsos online surveys is measured by a credibility interval. In this case, the survey has an accuracy of ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times 20, which would be the results if all Ontarians had been surveyed. All surveys and sample surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to, coverage errors and measurement errors.
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