This is not to say that a prime minister who is expected to hold a third term in government has no influence. Of course he does. He is popular with the public and controls the dissent of his deputies.
Beneath the surface, however, Labor is going through a huge factional disorder.
The internal status quo of the party that won the last two elections has been reversed. Since the 2018 “Danslide,” the federal party launched an inauguration after a branch-stacking scandal that led to the dismissal of right-wing faction leaders Adem Somyurek and Marlene Kairouz.
Elements of the right, including the Association of Store Employees, Distributors and Allies and the faction of former Senator Stephen Conroy, signed a stability pact with the Socialist Left earlier this year after the vacuum of power left by Somyurek’s departure from the match.
Like all faction factions, the so-called stability agreement secured power for some, but left others, such as MPs aligned with the Australian Workers ’Union and the National Workers’ Union, with a reduced internal power.
So the dynamic has changed. And the prime minister will work hard behind the scenes to exploit these factional divisions to install his favorite candidate, Allan, to replace Merlin as deputy.
Daniel Andrews (center) with Martin Pakula (right) and Lisa Neville (second from left) in 2018. Credit: Chris Hopkins
The Andrews cabinet has been a revolving door since the 2014 election. Some have left for their own reasons, others have been expelled from the ministry. Some made them walk around the political board.
Fourteen of the 72 Labor MPs in the upper and lower houses, almost 20% of caucus members, had already announced their intention to retire in November before the news of new retirements was gone.
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Of the prime minister’s eight-member COVID-19 crisis council, it is likely that only three will remain after the election: Andrews, Allan and Pallas.
When the revolving door stops spinning, we will learn a lot about which factions, and which candidates, have the edge in Labor’s succession race.
Cut to the chase of federal politics with Jacqueline Maley’s news, opinion, and expert analysis. Subscribers can subscribe to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.