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PARIS – The political world of French President Emmanuel Macron has been turned upside down after failing to get an absolute majority in parliament.
Some well-known faces of Macronie, such as the aspiring Minister of Environment Amélie de Montchalin, have disappeared, victims of the defeat of the polls. Others, such as former European Minister Clément Beaune, have just kept winning their tenders, which Macron had set as a precondition for a higher position.
As the president prepares to share some of his power, a novelty for the 44-year-old centrist, there is still much uncertainty about the final composition of his government. There are major jobs left to cover; those in place could still be changed. A government reshuffle is posed as a clear possibility.
The powers of various legislators could be drastically expanded or reduced, depending on the type of agreement Macron reaches with other groups.
But a lot is already known. To help navigate the new power landscape in France, POLITICO has revised the new list of legislators to show who is likely to count in the new government, how influential they could be and what that means for EU policy.
Who is there?
Macron’s EU man. The young European affairs minister, Clément Beaune, opted for a constituency that was not a safe seat for Macron’s party and almost paid the price by losing his job. He managed to nullify a result of the first round in which he finished in second place, and got the second round with 50.7 percent of the vote. If he had lost, he would have had to resign, as has been the custom of ministers since the time of Sarkozy. As it stands, Macron’s next ally is likely to keep his job. He has been the president’s top lieutenant in Brussels for years and an important figure in the rotating presidency of the Council of France, which will end this month. Recently, he has vilified opposition leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon for his promise to “disobey” EU rules.
The rest of the crew. Like Beaune, other ministers with a seat in parliament will have far more power as cabinet members than as regular legislators. Commerce Minister Franck Riester was one of those who ran for re-election and therefore kept his job. It will continue to push France’s concerns to close new trade agreements, a position that is increasingly unpopular in Brussels. After being a government spokesman, Gabriel Attal will also keep his job in government as a minor minister of public finance. But don’t expect him to lead negotiations on key EU files, such as reforming the bloc’s public spending rules; Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire (who did not run for re-election in parliament) will continue to be the protagonist of Macron’s economic policy. Minor Ministers of Industry and Digital have not yet been appointed. Also watch out for Aurore Bergé, as she will lead the parliamentary group of the La République en Marche de Macron party. She will be responsible for making sure Macron MPs vote consistently, and for Yaël Braun-Pivet, also of Macron’s party, to become the next speaker of the National Assembly.
The nemesis of Amazon. In Alma Dufour, e-commerce giant Amazon has one of its worst enemies in Europe. Since Macron came to power in 2017, Amazon has seen a huge increase in its footprint in France and a torrent of negative press, thanks in large part to Dufour. He led Amazon’s working group of climate activist group Friends of the Earth, which claims to have forced the company to cancel or abandon five major projects in France in the past five years, the most recent being blocking successfully a warehouse near the eastern city of Belfort. Dufour, 32, will now barricade government buildings with Amazon delivery boxes to sit in parliament, having won her first election just six months after entering politics, under the NUPES alliance of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. For the past five years, France has been actively pushing for stricter competition and product safety standards in the EU, but Macron is also the face of Choose France, an initiative to attract foreign investment. Dufour intends to tell him if Amazon will choose France or lose France.
The “ecofeminist.” Green legislator Sandrine Rousseau is likely to make her voice heard on environmental and gender equality issues. The “ecofeminist” MP, as she describes herself, is a fierce critic of Macron’s energy policy and wants France to phase out nuclear energy. Rousseau remarkably criticized Macron’s decision to build new nuclear reactors. Under Macron, France has been a staunch supporter of nuclear energy and has led a group of countries that pushed for the inclusion of nuclear energy in the EU’s green investment taxonomy. Left-wing MPs such as Rousseau and Julien Bayou will question this approach.
The industrial strategist. The French Conservative party, the Republicans, faced an overwhelming defeat in the presidential election, but managed to maintain its presence in the National Assembly. The role of Republicans and Olivier Marleix could be decisive if Macron decides to seek support among right-wing MPs. Marleix, a former member of Nicolas Sarkozy’s cabinet in the Elysee, will head the Republican parliamentary group and is likely to rule on industrial policy dossiers. In his previous term, he co-produced a parliamentary report on France’s industrial policy in which he called for EU competition rules to take into account the objectives of industrial policy, somewhat in line with Macron’s priorities. In particular, he proposed softening Brussels’ competition rules on mergers and state aid, to reform control of France’s foreign investment and give a voice to lawmakers in this regard. He is also the author of a book entitled “Les liquidateurs” in which he criticizes Macron for selling strategic industrial assets to foreign buyers.
The patriot. Jean-Philippe Tanguy, Marine Le Pen’s former campaign manager, could be among the strongest opponents of Macron’s economic agenda. Tanguy embodies Le Pen’s thinking on EU affairs and his protectionist approach to economic problems. Speaking to POLITICO, he criticized Brussels’ sanctions against Russia, in particular the oil embargo, claiming that the current sanctions will affect European economies while making Moscow “richer”. Uncertainty about who will chair the very influential finance committee in parliament. Both NUPES and Le Pen’s National Rally argue that they are entitled to this position. Given his interest in financial records, Tanguy could be Le Pen’s most obvious choice given the opportunity.
Who’s gone?
The minister for a month. Macron pledged to make the green transition a key priority in his second term, and Amélie de Montchalin was expected to be instrumental in launching the president’s plan as minister of ecological transition and regional development. Although she did not have a strong green credential, de Montchalin has been a loyal ally of Macron. She was in charge of EU affairs in 2019, when she helped convince EU countries to support the 2050 climate neutrality targets. At the head of a large portfolio, she should have defended France’s position in the difficult negotiations on the Fit for 55 legislative package on climate. But with 46.64 percent of the vote, de Montchalin lost his parliamentary seat on Sunday to NUPES candidate Jérôme Guedj, a member of the Socialist Party.
The loose cannon. Both large technology companies and EU lawmakers should no longer be afraid of Laëtitia Avia. It was the mastermind of the 2020 hate speech legislation, the “Avia Act,” that would have forced platforms to remove marked content within 24 hours, with a long list of possible violations. It was repealed by the Constitutional Council, but part of it lives in the legislation that came into force last August, the so-called “law of separatism”, the parts in which it worked provide for the arrival of the Digital services law, forcing more cooperation between platforms and regulators. The law was amended after further ruins from Brussels, and while EU leaders may sigh with relief because it was hit hard in Paris, they also lost someone who was willing to at least lead the load to slow down online platforms. . In an interview with Le Parisien after his defeat this Sunday, he celebrated having had “the opportunity to introduce a law with my name, which has now reached all over Europe.” We wouldn’t put it that way at all.
The budget man. A salient aspect of France’s parliamentary work is, of course, the passage of the budget law. Last year Laurent Saint Martin, of Macron’s party, took charge of the mammoth text and had to deal with massive spending, including post-pandemic investment plans.
Friend of Beijing. Franco-Chinese economic diplomacy has lost its number one representative. Buon Tan, from Macron’s La République en Marche party, lost his re-election candidacy. Buon Tan played a prominent role in French parliamentary work on China while facing accusations of being an executive member of several organizations directly linked to the Communist Party of China. Speaking to POLITICO, Buon Tan explained that it was possible for someone to register him to these organizations without his consent. The legislator has co-authored a parliamentary report calling for deeper economic ties between Europe and China. Buon Tan was in favor of EU-China investment, which was suspended last year due to diplomatic tensions between Brussels and Beijing, and called on Brussels to resume talks with Beijing on ‘frozen agreement.
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