At the polls, Macron’s martial statistician display was a wet reef. It was especially irritating to him the pure indifference of the voters, a record proportion of whom (53%) abstained. The president’s manic hyperactivity clashed with a classic Gallic shrug.
And so, after bringing a wrecking ball to traditional festivities, Macron has come across an immovable object: apathy. The movement he created six years ago, La République en marche (“The Republic in March”), has stopped. It has been renamed Renaissance, but so far there has been no rebirth, not even a reboot.
Although it was revolutionary France that invented left- and right-wing politics, Macron is difficult to classify as well, but then he is not a typical French politician. By nature, more inclined to great gestures than to ideological coherence, he often does not listen to the man — and especially the woman — in the street.
He has restored some dignity to the presidency, a position that had been ridiculed under the venal Nicolas Sarkozy and the lustful François Hollande. Her eye for symbolism has served her well, for example with her eloquent message to the queen on her platinum jubilee.
However, the symbolism is no longer enough for Macron. Marianne, the personification of France since 1789, has left her lover who was formerly divine.
‘A chicken in your pot’
After five years in office, the president forgot that elections are ultimately decided on bread and butter issues. After years of confinement and pandemic, it promised a comprehensive reform of the economy, but nothing for families already making drastic savings.
Macron tends to forget the deepest truth ever uttered in French politics, more than four centuries ago. Henry IV, pragmatic enough to change his religion to become king, declared: “I want no peasant in my kingdom so poor that he cannot have a chicken in his pot” sa poule au pot ” .) every Sunday. ”
Like Britain, France is in a cost-of-living crisis for which the only real solution is monetary pressure that is deeply unpopular. The difference is that in France, both inflationary discomfort and recessive medicine can be attributed in part to the European Central Bank, which, unlike the Bank of England, is not responsible.
Another difference is that while the British had Mrs. Thatcher, the French have never radically reformed their public sector. They therefore have an even more inflated and bureaucratic state than the British: government spending accounts for more than 60% of GDP, compared to around 50% in the UK.
Before Brexit, it was easy for financial services and French businessmen to migrate to London’s most benign tax and regulatory regime. This brain drain infuriated Macron and has made him an article of faith to make France more competitive, with limited success.
After losing years when the pandemic disrupted its reforms, Macron hoped to use his second term to drive a liberalization program that would have rebalanced the economy, removing burdens on businesses and encouraging workers to retire more. late.
Macron’s hopes are now in ruins. “Its reform agenda will be much less ambitious than expected,” said Armin Steinbach, a Paris-based economist who predicts that only proposals to spend heavily on renewable energy or to deal with the consequences of inflation will gain support. between parties.
The crisis is likely to come with state pension reform, an issue that has already taken millions of people to the streets in the May Day demonstrations. Macron wants to raise the retirement age from 62 to 65, even lower than in the UK, where he is now 66, and will rise to 67 in three years.
While the British generally agree that improving health and longevity means that people can and often want to have a longer working life, the French refuse to accept this demographic imperative. Populists on the left and right are exploiting a population in denial, claiming that the economy can support a growing number of pensioners indefinitely. In particular, Mélenchon campaigned to reduce the retirement age from 62 to 60 years.
These fantastic policies are inspired by the economic theories of Thomas Piketty and other neo-Marxists or neo-Keynesians, who suggest that money can be created, indebtedness is unlimited, and taxation has no disadvantage.