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Three tropical waves are sweeping the Atlantic, one of which will earn the name “Bonnie” and another could suppress southeast Texas with heavy flooding. The peak of the hurricane season is still two and a half months away, but the Atlantic basin has come to life quickly.
The strongest of the three meanders westward and intensifies about 950 miles southeast of the Caribbean Windward Islands, with a likelihood of development in the coming days as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system, called Invest 94L by the National Hurricane Center, could become a depression or tropical storm and potentially become Bonnie in half a week.
NOAA predicts the seventh consecutive Atlantic hurricane season
The same storm could get stronger in the Caribbean, with a slight likelihood that it will become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season and turn over the warm ocean waters over the weekend.
After all, another tropical wave shows some signs of organization, but it probably won’t be as remarkable as its predecessor. Regardless, you need to be vigilant.
A third system, meanwhile, is beginning to materialize in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This, while unlikely to be strong enough to earn a name, is likely to become a tropical storm and is a concern for several major Texas metropolitan areas, where heavy flood rains could be in the cards.
Atmospheric scientists and hurricane specialists have already warned that this season could be tough, predicting it will be abnormally active or “hyperactive.” The presence of a pattern of La Niña, along with a deposit of exceptionally warm temperatures on the surface of the sea in the Gulf of Mexico and a myriad of other factors, favors a few especially busy months.
Invest 94L, which needs to be monitored closely
On Monday morning, Invest 94L was about 300 miles northeast of French Guiana in South America and was traveling west-northwest between 15 and 20 mph. In satellite imagery, it looked considerably healthier than 48 or even 24 hours earlier, full of rain and storm activity and thriving thanks to a reduction in shear. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is due to investigate the system on Monday afternoon.
For better forecasts, hurricane hunters probe storms in depth
Disturbing wind shear, or a change in wind speed and / or direction with altitude, can being unfavorable for a developing tropical cyclone, playing a kind of pull and drag that can break it. In this case, however, 94L is inside a comparatively warm shear pocket, which has allowed organization for the past few days.
There is a wide low-level circulation, but it remains to be seen whether a more concentrated and cohesive vortex can be formed. If a vortex near the surface materializes, it would need ascending storm currents to stretch it vertically. This is one of the first steps in forming a tropical depression, the forerunner of a tropical storm.
The National Hurricane Center estimates a 90 percent chance that the 94L will become a tropical storm, with a 70 percent chance of doing so in the next two days. By the end of Tuesday or Wednesday, it could be flirting with the force of the tropical storm as it traverses the Windward Islands with heavy rain and strong winds. Some places could see a total of 4 to 8 inches of rain.
Once maximum winds exceed 39 mph around a perceptible center, the 94L would become Bonnie, the second named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. It could make a career with the strength of the hurricane in the Caribbean between Wednesday and the weekend before touching land somewhere in Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua or Belize, affecting these countries or Guatemala.
Flood rains and landslides of mountain mud, along with some degree of harmful wind and coastal waves, continue on the table.
Second ‘Main Development Region’ system
After 94L there is a second tropical wave over the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic. This is the wide stretch of water in the tropical ocean between northern South America and northwestern Africa where the so-called storms usually come out in mid or late summer. Only three registered tropical systems have been named to the MDR during the month of June.
A tropical wave in the Atlantic now has a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days by the National #Hurricane Center. Only 3 storms were recorded in June in the tropical Atlantic (south of 20 ° N, east of 60 ° W): Unnamed (1933), Ana (1979), Bret (2017). pic.twitter.com/MM1CZIOohC
– Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 24, 2022
Weather models are divided into their weak wave simulations, but there is approximately one in 5 chances of an eventual development. Regardless, it looks like the Leeward Islands could see some extra rain over the weekend.
Over the past few days, heavy rain at the tip of the Mississippi Delta has been lurking north of the Gulf of Mexico and will continue and gradually shift westward. It can develop a bit of twist thanks to its positioning at the tail end of a cold front.
It will not become a depression nor will it have a name; the National Hurricane Center grants it only 20 percent development potential. But it will contain a lot of moisture.
The jury is still deciding where the system will go, but it could bring heavy rains to the Texas coast somewhere between the Houston-Galveston metropolitan area and Matagorda Bay if and when the mass of showers moves ashore. Some models simulate noise over the western gulf and eventual dissipation. It remains to be seen how it will evolve in the coming days.