Brad Fittler has shown he has the steel and strength to make massive changes to a losing team, but can he adopt the same philosophy to change a winning team and break a 17-year drought?
NSW has not won a decisive game at Suncorp Stadium since Andrew Johns inspired the Blues to a series victory in 2005.
Fittler proved his critics wrong by designing a resounding 44-12 victory over Origin II after seven side changes he lost to the Maroons 16-10 at the opening of the series.
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Burton “Worth closer to a million!” | 01:54
But the Blues found themselves in a decisive decision at Suncorp just two years ago after a Queensland thrashing in the second game and were defeated 20-14 by a Maroons team that was christened the worst in history. ‘Origin on paper.
A decisive one in Brisbane presents the Blues with unique challenges and they can’t just play with the same team waiting for the same thrashing they produced in Perth.
In 2020, Fittler maintained exactly the same side that defeated Queensland 34-10 in the second game, but eventually fell to the last hurdle in front of a Queensland parish crowd.
Fittler knows that a decision maker in enemy territory is a different beast and will need the best equipment possible to do the job on Queensland soil.
Latrell Mitchell presents himself as the biggest potential inclusion in case he successfully returns to South Sydney before the third game, but given his lack of fitness, it is a risk.
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Latrell Mitchell is a great player.Source: Getty Images
The 25-year-old has played seven Origins with Fittler and is the type of player he doesn’t like to play for in Queensland because of his physique and aggressiveness.
The South Star was arguably the best player in last year’s series, and despite being in playing time this year, his class would be welcome in the pressure cooker of a decisive Suncorp .
Mitchell gives the Blues that competitive fire they will need to win on foreign soil, but it’s unclear who he will replace.
It’s almost impossible to leave Matt Burton after his dream debut in Perth, leaving Stephen Crichton as the man most likely to give way to Mitchell.
Complicating matters further is the expected return of Jack Wighton, a regular in the Blues and a favorite of Fittler, Covid.
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Jack Wighton was the best of the Blues in the first game. Source: Getty Images
Wighton was the Blues ’best player in Origin I, though on a losing side and surely deserves a spot somewhere on Fittler’s 17th, as long as it doesn’t have lasting effects from his Covid attack.
There’s an old saying, “You need an old dog for a difficult road” and they’re not much harder than a decision at Suncorp Stadium, so Fittler may need his trusted and experienced duo of Wighton and Mitchell for the battle ahead.
Wighton could resume his utility role on the bench, with Siosifa Talakai to give way, but that would leave the Blues short with big men in the pine.
The combination of Koroisau and Cook’s double prostitute worked in the second game, but is it the best way to get the third game?
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Jarome Luai was guilty of some poor mistakes and poor discipline in the second game. Source: Getty Images
Koroisau was strong in the first half, without being spectacular, but he did allow Cook to dominate when Queensland got tired in the second half.
Bringing both Cook and Wighton to the bench would be a bold move by Fittler in a decision where big men are historically worth their weight in gold, especially considering the Blues were much better in the middle third of the field in the second game.
Now for the radical reform of the selection that could see that Wighton and Mitchell entered the centers, with Burton displaced to five eighth and Jarome Luai fell for the decisive one.
At first glance it seems an unnecessary risk for a team that has just put 40 points on the Grenadiers. Breaking the partnership between Cleary and Luai, on the one hand, seems crazy given his success for the club and the state over the last two seasons.
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Matt Burton can’t drop after starring in his debut.Source: Getty Images
However, with the exception of a try and a line break in Perth, Luai was poor in the second game and was guilty of some unnecessary stupid and penal errors.
An incident saw Luai give a penalty to rub a Queensland player’s face on the ground and lead directly to Cameron Munster’s first-half try out of the next set.
This poor discipline could prove costly if Luai is a repeat offender in Brisbane and could cost the Blues the game and series.
Dropping Luai, while a brutal call would allow Fittler to further use Burton’s fantastic five-eighth-kick game and allow the experience and physical character of a Mitchell and Wighton center association to form for the end. from the “Do or die” series.
Payne Haas is shot down by the Maroons. NRL image source: supplied
This would allow Fittler to maintain balance on his side and especially on his bench with Siosifa Talakai taking his place, despite having limited opportunities in his debut.
Further darkening the selection waters of the Blues is the possible unavailability of star Payne Haas due to an ankle injury suffered in the second game.
Haas is arguably the most important striker of the Blues and, with Jake Trbojevic as a mainstay, leaves the Blues short specialized strikers.
This could lead to a possible withdrawal of Reagan Campbell-Gillard or Daniel Saifiti, who is scheduled to return in round 16.
Whatever the final composition on his side, Fittler must learn from the mistakes and experience of 2020.
Switching to a winning side is a risk, but Fittler has proven to be a horse trainer for courses, picking the top 17 to do the job in every game.
This could mean making changes to their winning team from Perth to make sure the best combination of 17 players can do what no NSW team has done in a decision at Suncorp Stadium since 2005 and bring the Shield home.