Lucy Edwards, a UK-based journalist and blind broadcaster, found it difficult to maintain a social distance in public during the height of the pandemic. That’s why he tested the iPhone’s people detection feature, which uses the iPhone 12 Pro and 13 Pro lidar sensor to detect when others are nearby.
“I’m going to have to get used to it, but I’m very excited to be able to get back in control,” Edwards said in a 2020 BBC video documenting his experience.
Lidar, or detection and range of light, is just one example of how technology has evolved within the iPhone over the past 15 years. When the first iPhone was launched, on June 29, 2007, it had a 3.5-inch screen that would be considered tiny by current standards and a single 2-megapixel camera. Now, Apple’s most sophisticated phones are equipped with triple rear cameras advanced enough to record movies, sensors that help people like Edwards navigate the world, and powerful chips with billions of transistors.
The iPhone often served as a catalyst for the technologies introduced, whether it was the Siri digital assistant, mobile payments, or wireless charging, and helped drive the evolution of our mobile lives. But in the future, the most important part of the iPhone could be everything around it. This is according to analysts who have observed the general trends in the mobile industry and Apple’s strategy.
In the short term, we are likely to see incremental improvements such as higher quality cameras and giant screens. But over the next decade, the iPhone could evolve into a hub for smart glasses and other devices. AirPods, Apple Watch, and CarPlay-enabled vehicles may just be the start. The basics of the iPhone, such as its screen and charging systems, are also expected to have a significant boost.
“The next research of the smartphone is to find out what it will connect to next,” said Runar Bjørhovde, an analyst at market research firm Canalys. “Because the smartphone hasn’t yet reached its full potential yet, but as a standalone device I think the smartphone is getting closer and closer to the edge.”
Your iPhone is at the center of everything
There is a lot of speculation about what will happen after the smartphone. The strong consensus seems to be smart glasses, with companies like Meta, Snap and Google working on their own version of high-tech glasses.
Apple is no exception; Bloomberg reports indicate that the iPhone maker could launch a mixed reality headset this year or next that supports augmented and virtual reality technologies. A pair of smart glasses with AR technology could reach the end of this decade, according to the report.
So what does this have to do with the iPhone? Possibly everything. While Apple’s headphones are expected to work as a standalone device, the apps and services it runs are likely to come from the iPhone.
Think of the Apple Watch. You don’t need a nearby iPhone to work, but much of its appeal comes from its ability to sync closely with Apple’s phone. Many of the notifications in the Apple Watch are also linked to accounts and apps that were set up on the iPhone.
Whether it’s smart headsets, Apple Watch, AirPods, or HomeKit-enabled devices, analysts expect the phone to stay in the center.
The iPhone will likely remain at the center of Apple’s experience, serving as the hub for AirPods, Apple Watch, and possibly a pair of smart glasses someday.
Scott Stein / CNET
“The phone will be the anchor,” said Gene Munster, managing partner of technology investment firm Loup Ventures and longtime Apple analyst.
But it’s not just about connecting to new personal tech gadgets. Apple is gradually turning the iPhone into a viable substitute for the portfolio, weaving it even more into the non-digital aspects of our lives.
Apple has come a long way on this front over the past year with new features such as digital IDs for Apple Wallet and Tap to Pay, making the iPhone a contactless payment terminal for merchants without additional hardware. Apple has also just announced Apple Pay Later, which allows Apple Pay users to split a purchase into four equal installments paid over six weeks.
“Clearly there’s a lot of momentum in financial services with Apple, and I think we’ll see more progress in that,” said Nick Maynard, head of research at Juniper Research.
Better deal, more advanced AI for better space awareness
Making polite guesses about Apple’s general direction for the iPhone is certainly easier than identifying the specific changes that could come. But analysts have some seed-based ideas that Apple has planted in today’s iPhones.
Leading will likely continue to be important as the company delves into augmented reality. Apple added lidar to the iPhone 12 Pro in 2020 to increase the performance of AR applications, enable new camera tricks and facilitate accessibility features such as the aforementioned people detection. Technology measures distance by determining how long it takes light to reflect on an object and recover.
Still, the iPhone’s current lidar sensors may not be sophisticated enough to carry out Apple’s augmented reality ambitions, Munster said.
“Specifically, what needs to happen is that real-world mapping is more accurate,” said Munster, whose firm conducts research on topics such as augmented reality, autonomous vehicles and virtual reality. “And until that happens, the RA won’t really happen.”
The iPhone’s people detection feature uses lidar.
James Martin / CNET
Lidar improves the iPhone’s depth detection capabilities, but it’s still up to the phone’s processor to make sense of all that data. Apple has relied on artificial intelligence, one of Silicon Valley’s favorite buzzwords in recent years, to give the iPhone and other products more context about users and their environment.
Again, you can look at the Apple Watch to see this approach work. Apple’s smartwatch uses artificial intelligence and data collected from its sensors for tasks such as tracking your sleep and noticing when you wash your hands.
Hanish Bhatia, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, provided a hypothetical example of how AI improvements could manifest one day in the next iPhones. Imagine a future in which the Apple smartphone can observe a person’s habits to understand whether the primary user of the phone or a family member may be using the device.
“How to use the phone, at what angle is the smartphone tilted … Press with a certain pressure, or just touch it with your fingernails or something?” he said as an example. “These are all different types of behaviors that are very unique to a user.”
Bhatia’s example is speculative and does not reflect Apple’s actual plans. But with advances in AI and technologies like lidar and ultra-wideband that give the iPhone more space awareness, it’s easy to imagine a scenario like this.
Screens and charging technology could have a big change
Perhaps one of the most important questions surrounding Apple’s future smartphone plans is whether the company will ever create a foldable iPhone. Samsung, Apple’s main rival in the mobile space, has already launched several generations of phones with flexible designs. Motorola, Huawei and Microsoft have followed suit, and it is rumored that Google is working on a flexible Pixel. Foldable smartphone shipments are said to have increased 264.3% in 2021 compared to 2020, according to The International Data Corporation.
But experts like Munster and Maynard are skeptical about whether Apple will take a similar approach. While the tech giant has filed patents for mobile devices with flexible screens, these filings are not always indicative of Apple’s plans. Folding phone sales have been growing, but shipments are still clear compared to normal smartphones. (Research firm IDC estimates that in 2021, 7.1 million folding phones were shipped compared to 362.4 million phones shipped in the fourth quarter of last year alone). And then there’s the question of whether folding devices bring something really new or meaningful to the smartphone experience.
There are also challenges in creating a true glass screen that is foldable, Munster says. Samsung’s Galaxy Z Flip has a glass screen, but that glass is also combined with “a special material” to “achieve a constant hardness,” CNET reported in 2020.
“The missing piece from my perspective is like [Apple] I really would, ”Munster said.
The Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 3 can be folded in half.
Sarah Tew / CNET
The iPhone’s charging experience is probably also due to an upgrade. Between USB-C, Lightning and MagSafe, it’s no exaggeration to say that Apple’s charging options are tricky. Maynard believes pressure from senators in the European Union and the United States could mean a switch to USB-C in the future of the iPhone.
But there could also be more dramatic changes. Rumors about a completely portless iPhone have been circulating for years, and Maynard doesn’t think it’s entirely out of the question.
“I suspect that if any vendor were to launch a totally portless system, it would probably be Apple,” Maynard said, citing Apple’s decision to remove the iPhone’s headphone jack in 2016.
Wireless charging has also been a focal point for Apple in recent years, further supporting the port for a portless iPhone. There are relatively new Apple MagSafe chargers and many CarPlay-enabled vehicles also support wireless connections. Apple has also patented wireless charging systems that would integrate directly into MacBooks, allowing Apple laptops to charge iPhones, Apple Watch and iPads. The iPad Pro’s smart connector also offers a quick and easy way to connect accessories to Apple’s portless tablet.
“The number of systems that actually need to have a 100% cable is declining,” Maynard said.
Apple’s MagSafe wireless battery …