Steven Del Duca’s “leaked” note and the Liberals’ electoral ceiling. Andrea Horwath’s last kick in the can? And most importantly, does Keg count as good food in Canada?
Alex Boutilier: Welcome to Global News’ Ontario Roundup Votes: Final Countdown Edition. Less than a week is left for Ontarians to have their last chance to vote in this dormant election in the early summer, and the polls of public pollsters – and, if you have to believe the “leaked” internal memories, the parties themselves, suggest which remain two tight. – horse racing for second place.
I say this because it seems that the Ontario Liberal War Room has leaked an internal poll note to the Toronto Star, which suggests that they are in a strong position to form the official opposition to a likely majority government led by the leader of Ontario PC Doug Ford.
If this note is to be believed — and we have no evidence that it should not be — both the Liberals and the new Ontario Democrats have more or less publicly acknowledged that they have little or no hope of forming a majority government themselves. .
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But to top it all off, the Ontario NDP War Room seems to have leaked its own internal poll note to the Toronto Star, suggesting a late rise in the campaign! At some point, you may be wondering why the parties bother to write “CONFIDENTIAL” about these things …
This may seem rather unremarkable, as public polls have been projecting more or less Ford more years before the campaign began. But I don’t remember any recent example of a party admitting that outside of some minority / coalition horse trade, they’re unlikely to win the election with so much time to go.
But maybe I’m out of fashion. Colin, are you equally perplexed? Or better yet, can you tell us what the parties’ strategies suggest?
Colin D’Mello: To be honest, I’ve been struggling to make sense of Ontario’s liberal strategy in the final stretch of the campaign. In public, Steven Del Duca has begun talking about “stopping Doug Ford,” which seems to be a tacit admission that now the main goal is to curb the PC leader’s momentum.
Internally, senior Liberal strategists tell me that party supporters and supporters will be “very happy” with the outcome on election night, but they are very shy about the reasons for optimism. What is the basis of this happy outcome? Is it the 2018 election in which the Liberals were sent to bed without dinner? Or is it the 2014 election in which the Liberals defied expectations and formed a majority?
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Either way, the Liberals say there are some positive signs on the finish line. The party tells me that low voter turnout during the early polls (which close on May 29) could be advantageous for their cause because it means voters are not as determined as polls will make us believe. The party believes that it can get the support of both the PC and the NDP before the e-day, enough to do something. What this is, and will be enough, is unclear.
But as it stands now, Del Duca’s best chance of claiming victory seems to be to dethrone Andrea Horwath from his position as leader of the official opposition, barely.
Alex Boutilier: All of this is very interesting, but I think this week we are dodging the question of all Canadians and I want a definitive answer. Does The Keg count as good food in this country?
Colin D’Mello: [screams internally]
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I will say it until my final breath. The Keg is a stylish, elegant, high-end meat restaurant and it all depends on your season in life.
When I wrote this story, I approached it from the perspective of the average Ontarian. One who does not earn a six-figure salary lives a modest life and worries about the cost of food and gas.
For this person, The Keg is high-end.
For those living in the small town of Ontario, with limited dining availability, The Keg is high-end.
For my mom, who refuses to go to Hooters because they offend her religious sensibilities, The Keg is high-end.
No em @m.
Alex Boutilier: Look, Swiss Chalet was a special pleasure when I was older, so I won’t go into that case. And Hooters offend me too, but not for any religious reason. The wings have been shown solely to give a sense of proportion.
But let’s get back to business: While Ford is comfortably heading for another majority term, there are some compelling questions to keep us busy in the last week of the campaign.
If the recent federal experience is a guide, it is not necessarily a glance that opposition leaders get more than one kick in the ballot box. Stephane Dion, Michael Ignatieff, Andrew Scheer, Erin O’Toole: none of their respective parties gave him more than one chance to form a government.
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I guess if Steven Del Duca materially advances his party’s position in the legislature — and it would be hard not to — he’ll have a chance to at least argue, he should stay in the lead.
But what about Andrea Horwath, who now looks set to face his fourth straight election defeat? Although he is still in the air between the Liberals and the NDP, there is a possibility that he may return from the official opposition in third place. Can your leadership survive this?
Perhaps more urgently for Ontarians, how is Ford’s second majority for the province?
Colin D’Mello: For Andrea Horwath, it’s the first or the failure.
Horwath has enjoyed great support within his own party, but even as the election began it became clear that his control over the party was beginning to falter.
Horwath and the NDP are now engaged in a legal battle with NPD MP Paul Miller for a long time over his Facebook posts and Miller’s expulsion from the party. The NDP’s black caucus began to criticize the party’s decision to hold a nomination meeting in Brampton North, which caused Kevin Yarde to lose the privilege of running under the orange flag. And recently, there have been some reports of growing dissatisfaction in Horwath and talk of renewal.
The anticipation of election night for Horwath – and I note that there are still several campaign days left – is a thank-you list, followed by a resignation.
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As for Ford, much of the success of his second term will depend on who will continue to advise him in the future.
It was shortly after the Ford Cabinet decided to close the playgrounds and give new powers to the police during the third wave of COVID-19 that two key strategists, lobbyist Kory Teneycke and pollster Nick Kouvalis, basically took over. of the government before moving on to his campaign team. .
Both have been largely credited with tidying up the ship and setting up Ford’s redemption story.
But what happens when they return to their respective internships and when pandemic-tired staff decide to hold other positions outside the government? How does Ford replace key stabilizing forces within its cabinet, such as Rod Phillips and Christine Elliott? And who keeps Ford from falling back into old habits?
This will determine what a potential second term will look like.
Alex Boutilier: And with that, dear readers, we close our last pre-election vote in Ontario. Check out this space next week as Colin and I delve into the bowels of Thursday’s election: the surprises, many more non-surprises, and what all this means to the rest of us. Until then, see you at The Keg.
Global coverage of the fourth week of the 2022 Ontario elections:
Take a look at Global News’s promise tracking, keeping track of all the promises and policies announced during the campaign.
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Doug Ford and PCs maintain strong control over Ontario’s election race: Ipsos poll With less than two weeks to go until election day, Conservative progressive leader Doug Ford continues to hold a significant lead over his rivals. (Isaac Callan)
45% of voters believe Doug Ford and PC will win Ontario election: Ipsos poll Nearly half of Ontario voters believe Doug Ford and Progressive Conservatives will win next week’s provincial election, according to a new survey. (Hannah Jackson)
“Legitimate political expenses”: Del Duca defends the riding association’s dinners. Ontario Liberal leader Steven Del Duca is defending his use of riding association funds to pay thousands of dollars in expensive dinners while serving as cabinet minister, alleging that they were used to “legitimate policies.” expenses.” (Colin D’Mello)
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The Ontario Green Party aims to respond to Doug Ford’s pandemic by trying to change seats. The Ontario Green Party is taking advantage of the frustration of COVID-19 as it hopes to gain an advantage over progressive Conservatives in Parry Sound-Muskoka and double the number of party seats in the provincial legislature. (Colin D’Mello)
Ontario’s Liberal candidate retires, third party less than full list. Liberal leader Steven Del Duca says Audrey Festeryga has withdrawn her candidacy for Chatham-Kent-Leamington and will no longer appear in the Liberal vote. The development means there are now three constituencies in which the Liberals are not running for the June 2 provincial election. (The Canadian Press)
Doug Ford campaigns for the handle brand after the tumultuous first term, …