It is likely that the Russians, always ruthless in their battlefield calculations, have made the assessment that, no matter how exhausted Russian troops and logistical systems are, the Ukrainians are probably more exhausted. The war is about relative advantages and exploiting them. It is likely that the Russian high command, pushed by Putin, has come to the conclusion that, despite the high costs for Russian soldiers continuing the offensive in the east, they can bear these costs more than the Ukrainians.
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And, most of the confronted and bloody Russian forces in the east have been proxies and mercenaries. These are of little importance to Putin. But they have given him time to rally the reserve forces of the Russian army for action in the next phase of this campaign.
Therefore, the Russian army will seek to continue advancing to secure the entire Donetsk region. To do so, they will maintain their approach throughout the eastern campaign; to advance behind its extensive artillery and rocket fire, seek the encirclement and destruction of Ukrainian forces, while continuing its strategic missile attacks through Ukraine to ban logistics supply lines in the Donbas.
But the Russians are facing challenges elsewhere that will affect this.
The Russians are also under pressure in the south. In Kherson, Ukraine continues to retake territory through a series of counterattacks. This conflict in the south is the most decisive front in this war. Possession of the territory of Ukraine in the south allows Russia to economically strangle Ukraine. As such, the Russians can not allow much Ukrainian progress here. The challenge in the south is magnified for the Russians by the resistance activities of Ukraine. Over the weekend, another Russian train derailed in the south and there was a campaign aimed at Russian soldiers and collaborators.
A nurse checks Ponomareva’s wounds Natalia Sergiivna three days after her family’s house was bombed by Russian forces in her front-line village of Vysokopilla in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine. Credit: Getty
Therefore, after any success in Luhansk, and despite Putin’s orders to continue, Russia may have no choice but to rebalance its forces between East and South. This, and Ukraine’s strong defenses in the east, will influence his desire and ability to seize the entire Donbas region.
The Ukrainian government and military high command also face an east versus south challenge. How much military capability can it invest in defending the east and how much should it deploy in its offensive activities in the south? This is a tough balance in both the political and military spheres. Demands for defense of its entire territory will have a major impact. But so will the level of Western military, intelligence and economic aid.
While the tactical impetus in eastern Ukraine may be with the Russians, this impetus has been enormously expensive in both lives and ammunition. It has destroyed entire cities and resulted in relatively small amounts of occupied territory. And if Western support – and the nerve of Western leaders – is maintained over the coming months, the long-term outlook still favors Ukraine. And that means that while Australia has so far been the largest provider of non-NATO aid to Ukraine, the government will likely have to commit additional military and economic aid in the near future.
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In the short term, however, the Ukrainians in the east are facing a new Russian attack. It’s probably as brutal as what we’ve seen in the last two months.
But the Ukrainians have shown in this war how effective a defensive strategy can be if it integrates modern sensors, precision ammunition, adequate levels of reinforcement, flexibility and good leadership. They will need a full measure of all this in the coming weeks.
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