Istanbul, Turkey – The last-minute agreement between Turkey, Sweden and Finland to clear the way for the accession of the Nordic countries to NATO has been described as Ankara standing firmly alongside its allies Westerners in the face of Russian aggression.
In recent years, the debate over whether Turkey is moving away from the West, fueled by episodes such as Ankara’s acquisition of Russian missiles three years ago and, more recently, its refusal to join the sanctions on Russia for its war in Ukraine.
When Turkey announced in May that it would veto NATO requests from Sweden and Finland unless they met a series of demands, many saw it as further proof of Ankara’s growing reputation as a partner. tracing its own path within NATO.
But last week’s agreement, which addressed Turkish concerns about the activities of groups it has designated as “terrorist” organizations in the Nordic states, the extradition of suspects and the removal of restrictions on arms sales in Turkey, he saw President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrated as a loyal and supportive ally. at the NATO summit in Madrid.
“The agreement is a very positive and historic development for Turkey’s relations with Sweden and Finland and NATO as a whole,” said Ali Bakeer, assistant professor at the Ibn Khaldon Center for Humanities and Social Sciences. University of Qatar.
“It shows Turkey’s commitment to supporting the unity and expansion of NATO … It is a win-win situation and NATO is emerging stronger as a collective security organization in the face of growing threats and Russia “.
Ankara joined NATO in 1952 during the first wave of the alliance’s expansion, after having sent troops to fight under the United Nations flag in the Korean War two years earlier. At the time, Turkey and Norway were the only NATO states with land bordering the Soviet Union.
Turkey, which has the second largest NATO army after the United States, provided a vital southern flank to the alliance.
Potential problems ahead
Despite the positive reaction to the Turkey-Sweden-Finland agreement, there are indications that enlargement could still pose challenges for NATO.
Erdogan has noted that Turkey could block the process if Sweden and Finland do not “comply”. [the] duties “mentioned in the 10-article agreement. Nordic expansion must also be ratified by the parliaments of the 30 NATO members.
“Turkey got a lot of what it asked for, but there are possible drawbacks to the ratification process,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara.
“Turkey, Sweden and Finland are not on the same page when it comes to the definition of terrorism. People whom Turkey considers terrorists may not be considered as such by Sweden and Finland, and when Turkey requests their extradition, this may still be the case. be rejected.
“I imagine that Turkey will further delay the ratification process on the grounds that Sweden and Finland are not complying with the written agreement … But that said, they have managed to push the can forward and perhaps other solutions can be developed in the meantime. ”
Turkish persuasion
Ankara has played a crucial role in preventing a crisis within the alliance at a time when Europe is facing its biggest threat since the Cold War.
“The biggest victory of this agreement is the fact that there is no crisis in relations between Turkey and NATO,” said Galip Dalay, a collaborator on Chatham’s Middle East and North Africa Program. House in London.
“If there was no agreement after this summit, which is perhaps the most important summit in decades, this would have led to a crisis. The fact that this crisis has been avoided is a great victory for all parts of the world. ‘NATO’.
Having polished its position within NATO, Turkey will now seek to persuade its allies of its view on “terrorism,” according to analysts.
The Nordic deal has seen Western countries recognize for the first time Ankara’s concerns over the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). The group, instrumental in the fight against ISIL (ISIS) as part of the U.S.-led coalition in Syria, is linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has maintained an armed uprising against Turkey for 38 years. .
Turkey is now likely to push other countries, which have largely maintained that the PKK and the YPG are separate entities, to take a similar position.
Turkey has pledged to repeat its 2019 YPG-controlled incursion into northern Syria. The previous operation led to widespread condemnation and Western restrictions on defense sales in Ankara.
“Turkey will now wait for Europe and the United States not to criticize it [incursion] beyond lip service, ”Unluhisarcikli said.
Dalay explained that Russia’s war in Ukraine would lead to greater convergence between Turkey and its NATO allies. Turkey is the only NATO member in direct competition with Russia in Syria and Libya, a situation that creates unique security threats for Ankara.
“Russian revisionism has always brought Turkey closer to the West,” Dalay said. “This was the case of the Ottoman Empire, this was the case when Turkey applied for NATO membership and this is the case today.
“But while Turkey is gradually converging with the West on geopolitical issues, it will try to do so in a way that does not antagonize Russia.”