Sunday, May 29, 2022, 9:19 am – Meteorologists expect Agatha to make landfall in Mexico on Monday, possibly retaining its Category 1 hurricane force, with the potential for sudden floods and mudslides threatening the life as it reaches the earth.
The Eastern Pacific has its first hurricane of the season, with Agatha becoming a Category 1 storm on Sunday. It is not expected to go beyond that category with a touchdown scheduled for Monday. However, it is still a dangerous storm, which is expected to trigger extreme amounts of heavy rains that can cause sudden floods and life-threatening mudslides. In addition, there is a risk that the storm will recur in the Gulf of Mexico this week.
DON’T MISS IT: The above-average Atlantic hurricane season is forecast for the seventh year in a row
AGATHA FURNISHES QUICKLY FOR HURRICANE, LANDS IN MEXICO
Agatha is now a Category 1 hurricane after gaining momentum amidst warm waters and favorable winds.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) CDT warning on Sunday at 7 a.m. found that Agatha’s sustained maximum winds had increased to about 120 mph with higher gusts. Meteorologists expect the storm to continue to intensify until it makes landfall on Monday.
“On the planned route, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico later today and make landfall on Monday,” the NHC said.
The latest forecast calls for the Agatha to make landfall off the coast of Oaxaca in the early hours of Monday afternoon, although winds and rain will well precede the center of the storm that will officially make landfall.
A hurricane warning is in effect off the coast of Oaxaca ahead of Agatha’s planned landfall, from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua. There is a hurricane watch from Salina Cruz east to Barra De Tonala, and there is a tropical storm warning from Salina Cruz east to Boca de Pijijiapan and Lagunas de Chacahua to west to Punta Maldonado.
The storm’s rugged humidity and rugged terrain in southern Mexico will combine to produce prolific rains in the middle of the week as the storm hits land and slowly pushes inland.
Widespread total rainfall of 200-300 mm along the course of the storm, with the highest possible totals in some areas. Oaxaca could see more than 400 mm of rain, with isolated totals of up to 500 mm. Such heavy rain will cause sudden floods and landslides of mud that threaten life in the affected areas.
In addition, storm surges are expected to cause dangerous coastal flooding in areas of land winds near and east of where the center of Agatha touches land. Near the coast, the wave will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
THIS WEEK LOOKING AT PRINT THE GOAL
The effects of the system may not stop in southern Mexico.
Agatha’s remains will slowly move inland and may re-emerge at the southern tip of the Gulf of Mexico in the middle of this week. At the same time, the weather conditions may be favorable for the system to become a new system in the Gulf of Mexico.
The NHC offers this region a 30% potential for mid-week tropical development. Meteorologists will closely monitor this potential development.
If a gulf system is formed, it would be the first system in the Atlantic basin for the 2022 hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1.
GIRL CAN SUPPRESS PACIFIC ACTIVITIES BECAUSE PROMOTES ATLANTIC SEASON
La Niña, a cooling of sea surface temperatures in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean, has a significant impact on hurricane activity in both the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean.
This pattern tends to suppress hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, as cooler waters and increased wind shear are unfavorable to tropical development. As a result, NOAA’s official forecast calls for below-normal tropical cyclone activity-worthy probabilities in the central Pacific.
While the outlook does not specifically cover the eastern Pacific, a similar pattern can be expected to be seen here due to its proximity to the region. The hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean began on May 15 and lasts until November 30.
On the other hand, forecasters expect warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures and relatively calm wind shear to contribute to another above-average Atlantic hurricane season for the seventh year in a row.