While Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has sided with Vladimir Putin, thousands of his people have been planning acts of sabotage and their own revolution.
A vast network of former Belarusian officials, activists, private hackers and ordinary citizens has plunged into the Russian war with the aim of helping Ukrainians defeat their invaders.
The struggle of the Belarusians is personal.
They believe that if Russia fails in Ukraine, the people of Belarus will be closer to freedom at home.
This network had been slowly gaining momentum and members as it formulated a “secret plan” for a coordinated uprising against the Lukashenko regime when Putin’s forces arrived in Belarus in January.
Leaders of the anti-regime network told the ABC that the decision was made to start sabotage operations soon to hamper Putin’s efforts in Ukraine, help defend Kyiv, and ultimately weaken Russia.
They believe that a Russia on its knees makes it possible to overthrow Lukashenko, “Europe’s last dictator.”
‘The railway war’
Lukashenko was the only member of the Belarusian parliament to oppose the end of the Soviet Union in 1991. He had formed a pro-Russian communist faction and in 1994 became the first president of the nation.
And it is in this role that it has remained.
Under his rule, the people of Belarus have suffered “serious human rights violations,” according to the United Nations.
For 27 years, Lukashenko has moved to crush any opposition to his power. He controls local media, detains activists and dissidents, and expels foreign ambassadors from the West.
His control of power tightened further in 2020 when he was re-elected in a vote widely condemned as fraudulent.
At the time, there were reports of protesters being tortured, abducted and detained; journalists were imprisoned, human rights defenders were attacked and finally there was no transfer of power.
Lukashenko told the Belarusian people that he had won 80% of the vote, but the UN found that citizens had rejected a free and fair election and the right to assemble.
Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was forced into exile in Lithuania, but the resistance never died. It was organized.
And when Russia invaded Ukraine, that network was in a perfect position to sabotage Putin’s army.
Inspired by their “partisan ancestors” who destroyed Nazi rail networks and supply lines during World War II, Belarusian saboteurs in the country, as well as around the world, came together and launched “the war of railway “.
“Our activists destroyed relay boxes and central signaling,” Belarusian police officer Aliaksandr Azarau, who became the leader of the resistance, told ABC.
“This action caused a slowdown in rail traffic and in the first week of our actions, Russian trains had stopped moving.”
Belarusian railway workers posted images of damaged infrastructure in Telegram. (Supplied)
Mr Azarau now lives in exile in Warsaw and runs BYPOL, an organization of former police officials determined to restore democracy and “law and order” in Belarus.
When Belarusian protesters were beaten and detained by the Lukashenko regime in 2020, BYPOL began investigating police actions and found that they were using Russian military-style weapons as well as evidence of torture.
BYPOL is now very open about its plan to coordinate an uprising and overthrow Lukashenko and they are proud of what they have already achieved.
“After that week, the main trains ran again, then we started new actions, then we launched the third wave of actions and then the fourth,” Azarau said.
“Large traffic jams were created, trains were moving very slowly all over Belarus. Thus, Russian trains with supplies, equipment and weapons were unable to reach their destination in time.
“We believe that we helped the Ukrainians to move the Russian forces away from Kyiv.
“Russian soldiers near Kyiv did not receive ammunition and fuel in time. The Russians often abandoned their military machines and walked back to Russia.”
Images of the damaged signal boxes were posted on the Telegram channel by Belarusian railway workers. (Supplied)
Mr. Azarau confirmed to the ABC that BYPOL members within Belarus were railway workers and had committed acts of sabotage against their own employer.
These saboteurs risk their lives.
More than 1,000 anti-regime activists and members of the opposition are believed to be imprisoned in Belarus, but Lukashenko has recently increased his threats to those who dare to undermine him.
Acts of sabotage — or attempted acts — are now considered acts of terrorism punishable by death.
While BYPOL members inside Belarus were destroying railway relays and signal boxes, a group of hackers violated the ticket system.
The Cyber Partisans group has taken over.
“Several partisans decided to attack the railways to show that the people of Belarus do not agree with the fact that Russian soldiers can enter the territory of Belarus so easily,” Cyber Partisans representative Yuliana Shemetovets told ABC from New York City.
“And also to show that Lukashenko is not a reliable partner for any country, not only for European countries, but also for Russia, because it cannot ensure the movement of goods and trains on its territory.”
Cyber Partisans is also providing information to those on the ground.
“They are also helping the Ukrainian soldiers … and the special agents with the data of the Belarusian soldiers, with the data and information on the movement of Russian teams in the territory of Belarus, are also helping the Ukrainian activists with all they can.” said Shemetovets.
Yuliana Shemetovets says some of Belarus’ cyber infrastructure is easy to break. (Provided by: Yuliana Shemetovets)
Thousands of Belarusians are now believed to be crossing the border fighting the Russian invasion.
Cyber Partisans is helping Belarusian volunteers fighting in Ukraine as part of the Kalinouski regiment.
“The main goal of the cyber partisans right now is to help the Ukrainians and prepare for the uprising in Belarus,” Shemetovets said.
“At a time when Russia is weak, it will be an opportunity for the Belarusians to regain power in themselves, in the people.”
Lukashenko’s delicate position
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1994. (Sergei Shelega / BelTA Pool Photo via AP)
Lukashenko may have moved to consolidate his power for 27 years, but some analysts believe that he is now in a vulnerable position for several reasons.
Belarus’ opposition is much stronger than before the 2020 elections.
Alla Leukavets is a Belarusian scholar with experience in the country’s national and foreign policy, in particular Belarus’ relations with Europe and Russia.
He said Belarusian opposition and anti-regime groups were gaining momentum.
“Never before in the history of Belarus have we seen such a high level of organization and such a shocking job. During all the previous elections, the Belarusian opposition fought among themselves, there was no unity between them,” he said.
The 2020 elections were a turning point. Belarusian citizens who did not believe the result was legitimate and took to the streets for the first time, as well as those watching from home, witnessed police brutality and the overwhelming force of the regime. This did not discourage the opposition, but galvanized it.
Police bring a protester to a post-election rally in Minsk in 2020. (AP: uncredited)
Leaders and anti-regime organizations are united as Russia’s war in Ukraine puts Lukashenko back in the global spotlight, and this time the world sees its willingness to support and allow Russia’s aggression.
Dr. Leukavets said Belarus’ domestic policy was largely a “black box,” but some opinion polls indicated growing dissatisfaction with the Lukashenko regime over deepening relations with Russia.
“According to a recent Chatham House poll, almost 80% of respondents are against the involvement of Belarusian soldiers in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. More than half believe that Belarus should adopt a neutral position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, “he said. .
In the run-up to the 2020 elections in Belarus, Lukashenko presented himself with an anti-Russian platform, but when faced with an unprecedented wave of protests, he turned to the Kremlin.
“He was very, very against Putin, but as soon as Lukashenko was challenged by the internal crisis in Belarus, his position on Putin changed, because basically the Kremlin gate became the only gate to which was able to call and ask for help to maintain power, “said Dr. Leukavets.
More than 1,000 human rights activists, journalists and defenders are believed to be in prison in Belarus. (AP: Tut.By)
In January 2022, Putin was installing Russian forces on Belarusian soil.
In late February, Lukashenko held a referendum to amend his country’s constitution, giving even more power to the president and removing Belarus’ non-nuclear status.
The amendments were approved, but the West has not recognized the results as legitimate.
The Belarussian president is now in a delicate position.
Its alignment with Russia has cost it on the global stage and increased discontent among its people, but according to some scholars, it does not keep Belarus out of Putin’s plans.
Anais Marin, an associate member of the Russia-Eurasia program at Chatham House, said Lukashenko’s regime was now extremely isolated and that Belarus’ sovereignty could be at risk.
“What we might be witnessing is, in fact, the Kremlin’s final attempt to subdue Lukashenko and completely reintegrate Belarus into silence while all attention is on Ukraine,” he said at a seminar on what Russia’s war meant for in Belarus.
The question now is, “How short is the belt with which the Kremlin holds Mr. Lukashenko and how much is left for him to negotiate?”
The answer may be that the last dictator in Europe is now just trying to survive.
“He …