When images were posted on social media on Monday afternoon showing a smiling Boris Johnson holding a glass of sparkling wine at the height of a toast to party staff, it caused a flash of panic at number 10.
Downing Street had prepared for the release of the long-awaited Sue Gray report on the scandal, and leaked photos showing the Prime Minister holding court in a drink outing meant that all hopes of limiting the damage in one day they exploded like a party. globe.
There were fears that the final report could contain dozens of deeply embarrassing photographs and plunge Mr. Johnson further into a crisis.
“The images gave us another day of bad headlines and then meant that when the report came out, people were also excited about the second set,” a Downing Street source said.
In the end, Mrs Gray’s dreaded dossier, while certainly detrimental, was by no means fatal to the Prime Minister.
The details, such as the verbal abuse of the cleaning staff and the need to clean up the spills and vomit of red wine, were terrible. But the senior official’s decision not to publish any images other than those taken by official photographers had certainly saved the blush of both Mr. Johnson and his staff.
Opponents of the prime minister’s smoke-free weapon were not there, which led him to declare that he had been “claimed.”
But if the prime minister believed that he had “gotten away with it” – as his then-private private secretary, Martin Reynolds, said in the report on the break-up meetings – he was wrong.
“A complete and total mess”
As one senior Conservative described it, the week of the Prime Minister had been a “complete and total mess: politically, philosophically, personally.”
The report prompted seven more Conservative MPs to publicly demand the resignation of the Prime Minister, and the real fear that erupts among MPs is what Johnson’s continued leadership means for his own political future.
Another MP, Paul Holmes, resigned yesterday as Priti Patel’s parliamentary private secretary for what he called a “toxic culture” in Downing Street, in an attempt to break away from the government (although he did not ask The Prime Minister will resign) He currently enjoys a sizeable 15,000 majority in his constituency of Eastleigh in Hampshire, but has traditionally been a Lib Lib / Tory alternative seat.
Many other MPs now conclude that, far from being their main electoral asset, Boris Johnson is in danger of becoming a political responsibility.
“All opposition parties, especially the Liberals, do not want the Prime Minister to go anywhere,” he told a Conservative who defended a key marginal. “Ask yourself why this is.”
It was revealing that among the six Conservatives calling for Mr Johnson’s resignation were Stephen Hammond, who defends the ultramarginal seat of Wimbledon, and Angela Richardson, a Guildford MP, who faces stiff competition from Lib Democrats.
On the same day that Johnson tried to put out the remaining flames of the party scandal, Conservative Party chairman Oliver Dowden organized a workshop in Leicestershire with Conservative MPs representing marginal seats.
Dowden unveiled the Conservatives’ “80/20” election plan, under which the party will campaign hard to defend its 80 most marginal seats, while pushing to capture 20 more.
According to a party source, the meeting was “very positive”. But this did not coincide with the more liberal and leafy constituency MPs, whose voters are furious at Johnson’s apparent excesses at number 10.
Boris Johnson raises a glass at a meeting at No. 10, in a photo published with the publication of Sue Gray’s report (Photo: Sue Gray report / Cabinet Office / PA)
“As things stand, we will lose at least a few dozen seats in front of the Liberal Democrats in the next Remain-dominated southeastern elections,” a former minister predicted. “Once they’re gone, they’re gone for a generation. Trust me on this. “
The Conservative leader said it was too early to say whether support for the Liberal Democrats would extend to the south-west of the country with more votes for Leave, but did not rule it out, saying: “The Libs have a much more traditional base. “Strong, organized and belonging to the Southeast. People should not be fooled just because Labor fell second to Tiverton and Honiton.”
The by-elections in this Devon constituency, sparked after Conservative MP Neil Parish resigned after watching pornography in the House of Commons, fall on the same day as the Wakefield by-election, sparked by Conservative MP Imran Ahmad Khan. imprisoned for sexually assaulting a child. .
Both pose particular challenges for the prime minister, as he tries to appeal to his newly found supporters in former Labor countries, while trying to keep voters unhappy in the south.
While few believe Johnson’s role in the Partygate scandal will decide the next election, with the cost-of-living crisis expected to dominate the way voters decide when they go to the polls, their Management of the issue has gone down especially badly in the southern seats, which is being exploited by Lib Democrats.
In private, they describe the prime minister as “our biggest electoral asset.” Party sources say they are now deploying tactics used by the Conservatives in the 2019 general election against Jeremy Corbyn’s Labor Party.
A source in the party working in the southern seats targeted said: “There is no doubt that lifelong Conservative voters are telling us they will never vote Conservative again because of Boris Johnson.”
A senior minister told me to find out how to spread the appeal of Mr. Johnson among “red wall” voters in the north and “small conservatives” or “small liberals” in the south is the “big strategic issue” for the country. party.
“And it’s one we don’t know the answer to yet,” they admitted.
The minister added: “The hesitant Dem-Conservative Lib liked it [David] Cameron; they are less interested in Brexiteers in general and Boris Johnson in particular. “
Other high-ranking Conservatives, such as former Secretary of Justice Robert Buckland, warned that if the party suffered a “major defeat” in the two by-elections, then Mr Johnson should “reflect” on his leadership, but he stopped before arriving. demanding the departure of the Prime Minister.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s The Week in Westminster, Buckland said the Prime Minister was not beyond reform, but added: “There is no doubt that if these two by-elections are heavy defeats, this is a a serious question about how the government is acting, and changes will have to be made. “
‘Sue Gray’s Tax’
In an attempt to draw a line under the Partygate saga and offer lawmakers something substantial to sell to voters, Downing Street accelerated its plans to announce a generous economic package to help those struggling with the cost of living crisis , including the imposition of a new extraordinary tax. about the big oil companies.
As a sign of the dysfunction in the heart of the government, no intervention was planned on the cost of living at the beginning of the week. A series of announcements about regulatory changes designed to reduce inflation were scheduled for June, but the Treasury did not have a timetable for a new package of fiscal measures to support households.
The appearance of Jonathan Brearley, the chief executive of Ofgem, before parliament on Monday, during which he warned that the limit on the price of energy would reach 2,800 pounds a year, was seen by the government as an attempt to bounce back to Rishi Sunak. act sooner.
A government official told me there was no doubt that the regulator’s move was deliberate: “It looked like it was rolling the ground for a Chancellor’s announcement.”
But the decision to push through a £ 15bn package and new taxes was not made until less than 24 hours before it was announced, prompting accusations that it was a cynical attempt to change the news agenda. , which had been relentlessly bad for the Prime Minister. .
The announcement was well received by Conservative MPs, with Rob Halfon having been one of the main supporters of more support, insisting he was showing “compassionate conservatism” in action.
Others, however, were much less satisfied. A deputy representing a safe old job seat complained that Mr Johnson was trying to buy voters with the support package.
“I’m never happy when taxpayers are bribed with their own money,” the Conservative sniffed. “After all, I’m a conservative. As for the unexpected tax, it should be called Sue Gray’s tax.”
Deputies are also outraged in private with the lack of strategic planning from No. 10, after being forced to vote against a special tax last week, only to become government policy a few days later.
Many Conservatives believe that the absence of a viable leader for Mr Johnson is what keeps him in power, but the time he can hold that position is to occupy a majority in later banks.
As one senior Tory put it, “There is repressed anger and general cynicism that is dangerous for Johnson if he does something else, which he will inevitably do at some point. The only question is when.”