With three full days to go before the June 2 general election, Ontario’s political parties are campaigning hard to bolster support for key constituencies.
Conservative progressives have been the top favorites, according to the CBC News Ontario Poll Tracker, with another majority in the spotlight.
The new Democrats are on track to get the second most seats, albeit potentially with a smaller proportion of the popular vote than the Liberals. The Ontario Greens can take a second seat at Queen’s Park.
While not an exhaustive list, here are eight races that CBC News will be following closely this week and election night.
Brampton North
Almost all of Brampton is a major battleground in this election, with extremely narrow margins of victory in three of its five constituencies in 2018.
The New Democrats won Brampton North by just 497 votes over their closest competitors, the PCs. That MPP, Kevin Yarde, lost the April party nomination for this election and represented the constituency as an independent for less than two weeks before the campaign began.
The NPD, the PC and the Liberals have made Brampton North a priority in the campaign. New Democrat candidate Sandeep Singh joined NPD federal leader Jagmeet Singh when he officially opened his campaign office in May.
Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford made his first campaign stop in Brampton North, alongside PC candidate Graham McGregor. At least one publicly available poll has computers as favorites here.
Meanwhile, Liberal candidate Harinder Malhi previously represented the area before the mountain boundaries were redesigned.
Candidates 2022:
- PC: Graham McGregor
- NDP: Sandeep Singh
- Liberal: Harinder Malhi
- Green: Aneep Dhade
- New Blue: Jerry Fussek
- Ontario Party: Julia Bauman
Essex
This ride to the far southwest of Ontario could be one to watch election night, with a close battle expected between the new Democrats, who won Essex in 2018, and the PCs, who were left very far. Altogether, the two parties accounted for more than 90 percent of the vote in the constituency.
Interestingly, neither of the candidates running for these two parties has returned to the polls this time. New Democrat Taras Natyshak, who has held the seat since 2011, will not run again. Conservative candidate Chris Lewis, who lost only 2,711 votes, was later elected as the federal counterpart of the constituency.
Both sides have made it clear that they believe they can win in Essex, but a potentially tricky factor for PCs is the popularity of minor center-right parties in southwestern Ontario. According to Poll Tracker, the New Blue and the Ontario Party are polling collectively around eight per cent in the region, more than anywhere else in Ontario. This support could bite the PC vote share on election night.
Candidates 2022:
- PC: Anthony Leardi
- NDP: Ron LeClair
- Liberal: Manpreet Brar
- Green: Nicholas Wendler
- New Blue: Danielle Sylvester
- Ontario Party: Frank Causarano
- Head of front: Kevin Linfield
Ottawa West – Nepean
If 2018 was a clue, the race in Ottawa West – Nepean could be interesting.
The current PC candidate, Jeremy Roberts, won by just 175 votes last time, narrowly beating the New Democrat candidate Chandra Pasma and ending the Liberal presidency for 15 years. The NPD had never before garnered more than 16 percent of the vote in that constituency, but doubled it in 2018.
Pasma returns to the polls, and both the NPD and the Liberals seem to think that the seat can be reversed. NPD leader Andrea Horwath and Liberal leader Steven Del Duca have visited riding several times over the past two weeks of the campaign.
There are also questions about local resentment toward today’s computers after a deadly storm devastated parts of the Ottawa area on May 21st. Ford has not been to Ottawa since the campaign began, although he is expected to visit the city on Monday.
Candidates 2022:
- PC: Jeremy Roberts
- NDP: Chandra Pasma
- Liberal: Sam Bhalesar
- Green: Steven Warren
- Ontario Party: Vilteau Delvas
Parry Sound – Muskoka
The Green Party is putting high hopes on expanding its one-on-one caucus at Queen’s Park in this constituency, a long-standing progressive-conservative stronghold. Former PC MP Norm Miller has held the seat for nearly two decades, but announced he would retire from politics last year. The PCs used Graydon Smith, the mayor of Bracebridge for the past 12 years, to replace Miller in the vote.
But the Greens believe their candidate Matt Richter can win. This is the fifth time Richter has taken the seat. A local school teacher in the area, Richter won just over 20 percent of the vote in 2018. The Greens have campaigned hard in the constituency, with leader Mike Schreiner personally visiting more than half a dozen voters. times.
The fact that the Liberals have no one at the polls can help the Greens. The party was forced to abandon its local candidate after it was revealed that it had published a book detailing scientifically unfounded opinions about homosexuality.
Both the PC and the Greens insist that they will eventually win the seat, although the few level polls published by Parry Sound-Muskoka have no consensus on who leads.
Candidates 2022:
- PC: Graydon Smith
- NDP: Erin Horvath
- Liberal: no
- Green: Matt Richter
- New Blue: Doug Maynard
- Ontario Party: Andrew John Cocks
- Ontario Populist: Brad Waddell
- Independent: Daniel Predie Jr.
Sault Ste. to increase
PC incumbent Ross Romano won this seat in northern Ontario in 2018 by a margin of 414 votes over NPD candidate Michele McCleave-Kennedy, who is also running again. Altogether, the couple accounted for almost 83 of the total votes.
Ford visited Sault Ste. Marie often as prime minister, and made a stop in the city during the campaign.
Horwath was supposed to be there on Saturday as part of a last-minute tour of the north that was postponed earlier after he tested positive for COVID-19. Problems with the plane that was supposed to take the campaign meant that its appearance had to go through live streaming.
The original Liberal candidate for Sault Ste. Marie was abandoned after inappropriate comments she made on an online gaming forum appeared in the media. The party was able to replace him with a new candidate, Liam Hancock, before the Elections Ontario deadline.
Candidates 2022:
- PC: Ross Romano
- NDP: Michele McCleave-Kennedy
- Liberal: Liam Hancock
- Green: Keagan Gilfillan
- New Blue: Shane Pankhurst
- Independent: Naomi Sayers
Thunder Bay – Atikokan
This riding in northwestern Ontario was the scene of one of the closest races in 2018.
NPD candidate Judith Monteith-Farrell outperformed four-term Liberal incumbent Bill Mauro by just 81 votes, or 0.3% of the vote. It marked the first time since 1985 that the Liberals had not occupied at least part of the territory now covered by the Thunder Bay – Atikokan boundaries.
June 2 is expected to be another clash between the new Democrats and the Liberals. Monteith-Farrell is running again, while Robert Barrett is in the Liberal vote.
Del Duca visited Thunder Bay on May 22 to campaign alongside Barrett. This is another ride that Horwath intended to visit during the last weekend of the campaign, but his appearance in person was ruled out due to a mechanical problem with the plane that the campaign had rented.
Candidates 2022:
- PC: Kevin Holland
- NDP: Judith Monteith-Farrell
- Liberal: Robert Barrett
- Green: Eric Arner
- New Blue: David Tommasini
- Ontario Party: Dan Criger
- Northern Ontario: Kenneth Jones
Vaughan-Woodbridge
The bet is very high on this riding for Del Duca.
Del Duca was Vaughan-Woodbridge’s deputy for nearly six years before being defeated by current PC incumbent Michael Tibollo in 2018. He lost nearly 8,000 votes after holding various cabinet positions in the government. former Prime Minister Kathleen Wynne.
Throughout the campaign, Del Duca and his camp have maintained a stoic confidence that he will return to the seat on June 2. PCs, however, have said their own internal survey shows Tibollo is firmly ahead. Tibollo served as cabinet minister during the four-year term of the PC government, but was twice demoted to lower-profile positions.
If Del Duca does not win the seat, there will be serious questions about whether he can continue as a Liberal leader.
Candidates 2022:
- PC: Michael Tibollo
- NDP: Will McCarty
- Liberal: Steven Del Duca
- Green: Philip James Piluris
- New Blue: Luca Mele
- Ontario Party: Gerrard Fortin
- Ontario populist: Mario Greco
- Ontario Moderate Party: Walid Omrani
York South-Weston
New Democrat candidate Faisal Hassan won this seat in west Toronto by 1,165 votes in 2018, with only three and eight percent of the votes separating him from the PC and the Liberals, respectively.
All three parties believe they have a chance to secure assembly on June 2. The wildcard could be the recognition of the name of the PC candidate, that is, Michael Ford, nephew of the PC leader and councilor of Toronto.
The political brand Ford has a big weight in this city party, and large parts of York South-Weston share a similar demographic with Etobicoke North, where Doug Ford won with more than 50 percent of the vote in 2018.
Candidates 2022:
- PC: Michael Ford
- NDP: Faisal Hassan
- Liberal: Nadia Guerrera
- Green: Ignacio Mongrell Gonzalez
- New Blue: Tom Hipsz
- Ontario Party: Ana Gabriela Ortiz
- Independent: James Michael Fields