Rebel Conservative MPs are betting that Boris Johnson will “explode” with more scandals over the summer so that the rules that protect him from another vote of confidence can be changed to force him to step down.
The prime minister narrowly survived a vote on his post as prime minister this week, helped in part by potential leadership candidates who decided to suspend the launch of their own campaigns.
According to Conservative party rules, Johnson is immune from another vote for 12 months. But The Guardian understands that the 1922 Committee, which oversees these polls, could reduce that period to six months, or even less.
Elections to the committee’s executive are expected to take place in the coming weeks and some will be seen as a de facto vote on whether to take this step.
With committee members made up mostly of MPs believed to want Johnson to leave, including Graham Brady, William Wragg, Nusrat Ghani and Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, the rebels said their re-election would likely mean Johnson could face to another trust. vote before next June.
The executive can change the rules of these contests by a majority of votes and does not require the support of the entire parliamentary party.
Conservative rebels admitted they had “pressed the nuclear button” with Monday’s vote and were left with few more options to help them put pressure on Johnson. Plans are being drawn up for a “vote strike” to paralyze the government’s legislative agenda if necessary.
But many are confident Johnson will “explode” with more scandals, pushing for another vote of confidence in the fall.
They pointed to a number of embarrassments for the Prime Minister, such as the controversy over the protection of disgraced former MP Owen Paterson, an undeclared loan for the redecoration of Johnson’s flat in Downing Street and Partygate, and believe there is more “unforced errors”.
An optimistic Johnson on Wednesday removed the embarrassment of 41% of his MPs who said they did not trust him in Monday’s private vote. He said his government had “just started” and said it had “picked up political opponents everywhere” because the government was achieving “some very big and very remarkable things”.
He said during questions from the Prime Minister: “Absolutely nothing and no one … will stop us from continuing with the delivery to the British people.”
But he received further criticism from a fellow Conservative, who was later forced to resign as a government adviser. Helena Morrissey, a staunch Brexitist, said the prime minister, who was slammed at a platinum jubilee event last weekend, suggested it had “become a liability rather than an asset”.
When asked if Johnson should continue, Lady Morrissey told LBC, “Honestly, I’d rather you didn’t.” She said she was “at the wrong job”, had shown no contrition and should “go with dignity”.
Following the intervention, Morrissey, who was appointed by Johnson in September 2020, was told to step down from his role on the board of the Foreign Office and did so.
A former No. 10 councilor said it was a “mistake for the prime minister to be happy” because once someone had rebelled and “crossed the Rubicon” to vote against, it would be difficult to recover.
But they said potential leadership candidates like Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt and Tom Tugendhat would likely remain silent for the time being. Other cabinet ministers who are thought to be looking at top-level work but who have remained loyal include Liz Truss, the secretary of foreign affairs, and Nadhim Zahawi, the secretary of education.
The former councilor said: “No one is willing to solve the collective problem of a leadership career, which requires several people to make the leap individually.”
Government sources downplayed the threat of an immediate reshuffle of the cabinet, suggesting that No. 10 was nervous about creating more enemies by degrading ministers.
With the expected defeat of many Conservatives in two by-elections on June 23, in Wakefield in Labor and in Tiverton and Honiton in the Liberal Democrats, sources suggested that Johnson would like to wait until after these contests before launching another re-establishment of the government. .