France has begun voting in the first round of key parliamentary elections for Emmanuel Macron’s second term, determining its ability to pursue domestic policy such as raising the retirement age and revising the benefit system. .
Macron, who was re-elected president in April against far-right Marine Le Pen, needs a majority for his centrist group in the lower house of parliament to have a free hand in his proposals to cut taxes and make changes to the system. welfare.
But a historic alliance of left-wing parties, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed party with the Socialists and the Greens, seeks to massively increase its seats and reduce the score of Macron’s centrists.
Polls show that in terms of voting intentions, Macron’s centrist alliance, Ensemble (Together), is side by side with the Mélenchon coalition, known as the Nupes, or New Popular Ecological and Social Union.
However, the parliamentary voting system based on constituencies and uninominal for parliament means that the exact number of seats for each grouping remains difficult to predict. Much will depend on participation, which could be below 50% and reach an all-time low.
Polls currently show that Macron’s centrist alliance would win most of the 577-seat parliament, occupying between 260 and 320 seats. But this suggests that there is a possibility that Macron’s centrists will not get an absolute majority, which requires 289 seats.
If Macron’s party and its centrist allies fail to gain a majority, it would be a setback for the president and could lead to disorderly bill agreements with right-wing parties in parliament or an unwanted reshuffle of the cabinet.
The challenge of the new united left has been greater than expected, as support for the Mélenchon alliance has steadily advanced in the polls. The alliance could occupy between 155 and 205 seats and become the main opposition force in parliament, polls show.
Macron and ministers stepped up their campaign this week, warning that Mélenchon was dangerous and an extremist who would kill the European Union, “ally with Russia” and increase “global disorder”.
Le Pen’s far-right National Rally Party, which won eight seats in 2017, hopes to win at least 15 seats this time, allowing it to form a parliamentary group and gain more visibility in the national assembly. Polls show that the party could occupy between 20 and 65 seats. Although Le Pen came second in the presidential election with a record high of 41%, the uninominal voting system for parliament has historically been difficult for his party in the legislative elections.
Ballot boxes opened in mainland France at 8 a.m. (7 a.m. BST) after voters from overseas territories cast their ballots earlier in the weekend. The polls close at 8 p.m.
Of the 577 members of the national assembly, eight represent the French overseas territories and 11 are French citizens living abroad.
Voting in the first round on Sunday will decide which candidates will face each constituency during the last week of the campaign.
The shape of the new parliament will become apparent only after the second round on June 19.