While the Tampa Bay Lightning await their opponent in the Eastern Conference Finals, New York and Carolina are tied 2-2 after the Rangers tied last night.
It is the only series that does not face elimination, so we break down four keys to this series through four games:
Force in the network
Goaltending was a great story for the two teams that participated in this series. Everyone knows how dominant Igor Shesterkin was in the regular season, saving 40.7 more goals than expected, leading the league, 25 quality starts and nine stolen victories. Although he fell in Games 3 and 4 of Round 1, on the other hand he has been the elite as expected.
In this series, Shesterkin earned a .959 savings percentage and stopped 5.8 goals above expectations against all shooting attempts he has faced in all situations. In total in 11 games, it has a savings rate of .925 and a GSAx of +7.
On the other hand, there is Antti Raanta. The stories were more about the fold of the hurricanes as a whole given the state of injury of Frederik Andersen. But the backup was executed with the headline, gaining a savings rate of .936 and stopping 2.8 more goals than expected. In 10 total playoff games, he now has a savings rate of .931 and a GSAx of 3.9.
Both teams have strength in the net, which has kept this series closer than expected given the teams in front of the blue paint.
The five-on-five game is closer than expected
Based on the regular season, Carolina had the lead over her second-round opponents by 5 to 5. The Rangers may have had some results in these situations thanks to their ultimate talent and savings, but beneath the surface they painted a picture. most worrying.
New York managed to clear the game in their own area after the deadline and made some offensive improvements. Of course, they all collapsed in round 1 and raised more doubts about what this series would look like, especially given the aggressive pre-control of the hurricanes.
But the Rangers keep up the pace better than expected, and that’s why this series is tied. The Hurricanes remain the strongest team to maintain the blue line and extend zone time. They are also trying a lot of passes in the offensive zone and generating more shots.
This is giving a lot to work on in New York and they are doing their best to block steps and shots at a high rate to limit the chances of quality or cycle shots. While Carolina can create scoring chances in a hurry, they have only attempted 4.83 attempts from the slot outside the cycle, which was a strong point in their game in the regular season.
Another strong point was to limit these opportunities against; Carolina was one of the best but allowed 6.65 Rangers attempts.
Carolina still has the slight advantage in the expected goal generated with 8.35 in four games. But they do not have the goal to prove it, as they have only scored four goals.
As much as they are testing Igor Shesterkin with the volume of shots, the Rangers are doing their best to keep their quality shot generation as uniform as possible. Conversely, New York tested Raanta with a slightly higher slot rate. They have generated 7.65 expected goals for which they have gathered five records.
Carolina can’t win on the road
The Hurricanes have played 11 games so far, and all six defeats have come off the PNC Arena. The advantage is that they have ice at home, so if it reaches seven, the last incline will not be on the road. But it is especially curious to what extent this trend continued.
Maybe it’s a matter of the match: the Bruins were able to push Sebastian Aho’s line compared to Patrice Bergeron’s. Or that in this round the Rangers can move Mika Zibanejad away from Jordan Staal, after the Cannes closing trio did their best to suppress the New York front line.
Carolina played well at Madison Square Garden, especially in the 3rd game, and had no results to show. So it’s not just about this equipment sinking down the road. But it’s one thing to see progress because, while the Hurricanes will keep the ice at home if they get to the next series, it’s an obstacle they’ll have to prove to themselves that they can overcome.
The impact of Ryan Lindgren
The Rangers struggled without one of their best pairing defenders in Round 1, while Ryan Lindgren was sidelined with … what we imagine is a myriad of injuries right now.
Without him, Adam Fox was left with an unbalanced partner with Justin Braun. And the third pair of Patrik Nemeth and Braden Schneider also fought. This put even more pressure on K’Andre Miller and Jacob Trouba against an elite Pittsburgh trio led by Sidney Crosby. While a player should not make or break a blue line, when depth is an issue, he can do it all wrong.
Of the Rangers ’top pair, Fox and Lindgren lead the way with an expected goal rate of 56 percent with the same strength. The defensive game on the left helps complement Fox’s two-way elite game, and this is shown in particular in this series. Lindgren can separate opponents from the disc with his physical play or stick, while Fox uses his stick and clever positioning to limit counter plays. And the league knows what the winner of the Norris Trophy can do with the puck.
This pairing has been key for the Rangers in their minutes together, and this was shown in Game 4 on the way to the night of this series. The shooting attempts were 15-14 in favor of New York with them deployed, but how they worked to limit the chances of quality against it is what really stood out. Carolina only managed one slot attempt with these two on the ice, while New York generated nine.
All the while, this duo saw a lot of the line of Aho and Vincent Trocheck. New York knows how they are without Fox and Lindgren leading the way to the bottom, so they have to bring this strong game to Carolina to make some noise in this series.
Data via Sportlogiq