Sir Jim Ratcliffe may have fired the starting gun in the race to be the next owner of Manchester United this week, but anyone who thinks there will be a final sprint to oust the unlamented Glazer family is living in dreamland.
Britain’s richest man, who has a net worth of over £10bn, ticks so many boxes for fans who have correctly identified the Glazer family as the main cause of the club’s alarming slide. A Manchester United supporter and owner of Ligue 1 club Nice, he possesses the wealth, desire and footballing knowledge needed to transform a club in steep decline.
But Ratcliffe faces multiple hurdles if he is to close a deal. He’s not the only suitor, for starters. They have been told there is interest from around the world, as well as from Michael Knighton’s optimistic domestic consortium (who hinted he could have been a stalking horse to smoke Ratcliffe).
“The next owner of Manchester United will be someone you haven’t heard of until the deal is practically done,” said a source with experience of multiple high-profile Premier League takeovers.
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They believe Ratcliffe made a tactical error by revealing his interest. “It’s in the Glazers’ interests to push for a bidding war. Doing anything in public makes things difficult and is also likely to push the price up,” the source said.
If Ratcliffe has a plan, he will probably need patience and be prepared to pay big if he is to complete football’s ‘deal of the century’.
Those who are excitedly planning for Ratcliffe’s coronation have probably jumped ahead. The main issue remains whether the Glazers really want to sell the whole club or are only interested in bringing in an investor. Fans understandably reacted with outrage at the idea of a minority investor backing the Glazers after New York-based Apollo Group was linked with buying a stake in the club.
“Why would the Glazers sell?” Football finance expert Kieran Maguire told i.
“I think they will resist selling the club. They have taken out dividends so the club is still very financially lucrative for them and they believe there is a lot of value that is not priced in the share price.
“Microsoft bought Activision, the games company, for £65 billion a couple of months ago and Manchester United are seen as a quasi-tech company. If you’ve got 100 million people on your app, you’ve got all this data about they.
“There is value in this club, they just don’t seem to be very good at extracting it right now. Nobody in football does, they’re all sitting around saying ‘There’s a key to Pandora’s box and somebody’s going to open it’. If they do, they want to be a part of it. That’s why I think they will be reluctant to sell.
“The fans are complaining, but they’re still buying the shirts.”
The Glazers would need an extraordinary offer to consider selling United (Picture: Getty)
I’m told the potential price for an outright takeover of Manchester United being floated by brokers is £5bn. But those familiar with the acquisitions believe it is likely a starting price that could be negotiated.
Any buyer would need to have substantial capital to invest in infrastructure (Old Trafford is in desperate need of a revamp, and the club’s training ground is no longer best-in-class) and provide a transfer budget that could replenish the squad in difficulties of the club. One source he spoke to thought those figures could be as much as an extra £2bn, such is the work to be done at Manchester United.
“The accounts look reasonable. It seems that after the failure of Project Big Picture and the European Super League, both of which the Glazers were very interested in, the big problem they will have is that a substantial investment is required in terms of costs infrastructure and how that’s going to be funded, we don’t know,” Maguire said. Loans are likely to be taken out.
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Premier League rivals are stunned by the decline of the club, which is divided with dressing room factions and has had a desperate transfer window so far. The executives at the helm are out of their depth and new manager Erik Ten Hag has endured a nightmare start which is unlikely to improve with Liverpool.
Another year out of the Champions League would also affect the club’s results. Their 10-year contract with Adidas includes a clause that will reduce the value of the sponsorship by 30 per cent, which equates to more than £20m, if they miss out on consecutive seasons.
Amid the whirlwind of speculation, Manchester United have not commented on Ratcliffe’s statement and the Glazers are unlikely to show their hand anytime soon. In the long run they will hide, interested in extracting maximum value if they decide to sell the club in its entirety.
Two things will ultimately decide if they sell. The most important thing is an offer that gets them noticed, but supporters who make their lives uncomfortable will also be considered.
Sensing an opportunity, the 1958 “underground reds” group stage a protest before the Liverpool game and call for “fan unity” to oust the club’s owners. “We expect big numbers on Monday,” they wrote on Twitter.
“It is time to unite and put aside all differences. Let’s get our club back.”