Some like to call it “luck”, others “divine intervention”, but whatever the characterization, their clear Real Madrid has been able to take advantage when opportunities arise and so they are in the UEFA Champions League final. In his book, Don’t Trust Your Gut, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz provides data to reveal that luck, or great opportunities, appear to everyone, every team, or any business at more or less the same pace. The difference? Some take advantage while others never do.
“Here’s the remarkable result from Collins and Hansen: between companies in various fields, there was no statistically significant difference in the number of luck breaks received by 10X companies and 1X companies. 10X companies had an average about 7 lucky breaks 1X companies had an average of about 8 lucky breaks.
Collins and Hansen concluded that successful companies had no more luck; they were able to take full advantage of the luck they had, the luck that any business can expect, “Davidowitz told Don’t Trust Your Gut.
That’s why Luka Modric only laughs when the media and rival fans say that Real Madrid is “lucky”. All teams are lucky, but Real Madrid take advantage of this luck better than anyone. And the perfect evidence of this is the “sliding glass” or the moments that changed Real Madrid’s fortune from the point of elimination to the Champions League finalists:
Thibaut Courtois penalty save against Lionel Messi – PSG round of 16 (first leg):
Photo by FRANCK FIFE / AFP via Getty Images Photo by GEOFFROY VAN DER HASSELT / AFP via Getty Images
Real Madrid’s worst performance in the Champions League this season (yes, worse than the Sheriff’s defeat) was against PSG in Paris. The team defended in the lowest of the low blocks and failed to materialize any kind of attack rhythm. The game ended with only one shot on goal by the visitors. Carlo Ancelotti later apologized, but the criticism was right. Madrid would have lost the game 1-0, but it could have been much worse if Thibaut Courtois had not been in the net.
In what will be a new-looking PSG for the 2022-2023 season, with Mbappé now a clear leader and pseudo-sporting director, the Frenchman (who won the penalty in the first place) would probably have taken the penalty. Instead, it was Lionel Messi who stood up, a man, despite his countless talents, who has always fought from the penalty spot. And indeed, in the 62nd minute with 30 minutes to play later, Courtois denied Messi from 12 meters.
What if Mbappé had taken the penalty he won? What if PSG scored? Would they score one or two more in the first leg and deny any chance of going back to the Bernabéu? This is one of the many heroic moments of Thibaut Courtois that will go down in the history of Madrid if the team reaches the 14th.
Donnarumma makes a disastrous appearance. PSG round of 16
Photo by Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno / Getty Images
The catalyst for Real Madrid’s epic comeback against PSG and the match that provoked each of Real Madrid’s historic comebacks at the Bernabeu came from a mistake by the goalkeeper. Gianluigi Donnarumma didn’t do his homework. Karim Benzema will always chase a goalkeeper when there is an opportunity to chase. Ask Loris Karius, Sven Ulrich, and later Edouard Mendy.
If Donnarumma had just decided to take the ball out of the area, would any of the rebounds occur? Would he follow PSG and maintain its superiority as it had done in the first 135 minutes of the draw? A mistake by Donnarumma was the domino he set in motion and rekindled the connection between the faithful at the Bernabeu and his “mentality monster” of Real Madrid players.
Tuchel starts Andreas Christensen in central defense – Chelsea QF (first leg):
Photo by JAVIER SORIANO / AFP via Getty Images
Ancelotti got his almost perfect tactic against Chelsea in the first leg at Stamford Bridge, especially in the first 45 minutes. Tuchel opted to start Andreas Christensen as a right midfielder in a back three with sides. This caused a massive mismatch with the lethal speed of Vinicius Junior setting the Danish center on fire again and again. It was the Brazilian who gave the initial assistance to Karim Benzema after putting Christensen on skates for the umpteenth time.
What if Tuchel had replaced Reece James in the center before or put the physically imposing Englishman in that position instead of Christensen? It was an epic duel between the two in the return leg – when James started as a center-back – and Madrid might not have shot at Stamford Bridge if Tuchel had acknowledged the mismatch from the start.
Marcos Alonso’s goal after an error by Ferland Mendy is ruled out by the VAR – Chelsea QF (first leg)
Photo by Alex Livesey – Danehouse / Getty Images Photo by Angel Martinez / Getty Images
Ferland Mendy was counting on his blessings after Chelsea’s third-goal Marcos Alonso’s goal was disallowed after a VAR intervention. The left-back was caught with the ball haggling from behind and Chelsea punished the error by making an immediate transition to Thibaut Courtois’ net. Although Chelsea still managed to tie the game thanks to Timo Werner, Madrid began to wake up and felt the Bernabeu get behind them after Alonso’s goal was disallowed. Had this goal not been canceled, would Madrid have collapsed more? Would Chelsea have scored 4 in regulation time and reversed the global deficit? The tide changed after the intervention of the VAR.
Dani Carvajal’s goal line delivery at the Etihad-Manchester City SF (first leg)
The quality is not perfect but the image still remains, Foden fails from outside the six by a block by Dani Carvajal.
Nacho tries to get hold of the ball but it slips out of his hands. No Madrid player can close it in time and the Algerian faces a 1 on 1 with Thibaut Courtois. His shot came in from the right hand side but Phil Foden managed to save it with an unbelievable reaction stop. The young Englishman struggles to get to his feet while the ball hits him and it is the first time he has been masterfully blocked by Dani Carvajal. The right-back did not have the best of games in Manchester, but his office near the goal line denied City a third goal early in the second half. City had innumerable opportunities in this match, but could not take advantage. If Foden had buried a shot that was 0.55 on the xG table, City might have felt the match was too far from Madrid. Instead, Real Madrid got back on track and got a 4-3 thriller.
Espanyol’s match gives time for reserves to end up being needed in overtime – Manchester City (first leg)
Photo of GABRIEL BOUYS / AFP via Getty Images
Carlo Ancelotti’s decision not to rotate between matches in November and early December (Sevilla, Athletic, Real Sociedad, Inter and Atleti) paid dividends not only on points earned, but also on the possibility of resting and rotating later for April / May. Champions League clashes, as the league title was already closed. Ancelotti was criticized for the lack of rotation, including me among those he criticized, but it worked. Against Espanyol, the day of the League before the return match against Manchester City, Ancelotti had the opportunity to rotate most of his squad. Players like Dani Ceballos, Rodrygo Goes and Jesus Vallejo had a chance to play.
The three names mentioned ended up appearing in the return match. Rodrygo Goes was the savior after scoring two goals in the end, Dani Ceballos never missed a shot in the middle of the field, and Jesús Vallejo had to come in as a center-back after not playing all year except a good game against ‘Espanyol- and scored two crucial headers. and a hard tackle from Phil Foden to City.
What if Ancelotti chose to rotate for this crucial round of games in November / December? What if Madrid lost more points in the league? And if they needed to win against Espanyol to secure the title and, therefore, they had to deploy a maximum of eleven starters. Would Vallejo have played too?
Ferland Mendy clears goal line – Manchester City (first leg)
When the game seemed out of reach, with City leading 1-0 at the Bernabeu in the 87th minute with a total of 5-3 in favor of Pep Guardiola, a key moment took place. Ferland Mendy made a great block, though. Without Mendy’s knowledge, this block and the exit of the goal line would be vital to keep Madrid’s hopes alive. Rodrygo Goes would have scored two goals in the break time! Both teams had lucky breaks (deflections that fell to Foden outside the area), but one team went big and the other didn’t (Mendy put himself in position to block the shot). If Foden had scored that goal, the tie would have been almost out of reach.
Real Madrid is in the Champions League final because …