These observations, where I look at the history of Real Madrid, their players on loan, Castilla, tactical details and other relevant thoughts, are now commonplace. All previous editions can be found here.
The beauty of two-legged ties has always been, at least for me anyway, the global chess game that takes place between great teams, players and managers. The tactical adjustments (momentum changes, comebacks) that are made over the course of 180 minutes are really mesmerizing.
In a one-time final in a neutral venue, things can become more cautious, more stressful, more conservative. Sometimes tactics matter less than mentality, a lucky rebound, and the power of the stars; other times, structure and discipline outweigh everything. Liverpool and Real Madrid will play a game, with only 90 minutes left to make the game adjustments; but, without a doubt, these two teams have known each other well for decades, as it is their third date in a European Cup final and the ninth match in Europe in general.
Things have changed, of course, for both teams since their last final fight in 2018. Liverpool now have Luis Diaz and Thiago. Cristiano Ronaldo, Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane have already disappeared. Marcelo, Isco and Gareth Bale, key collaborators in 2018, will not be influential. Karim Benzema is a best player. Mohamed Salah has been talking about revenge, insisting that “he wants it more.” Vinicius Jr., the best side in the Champions League this season, doesn’t care about that, and he wasn’t about to take revenge on that final. Does the depth of Real Madrid play again? Can they survive the counter-press machine deployed by Jurgen Klopp?
Real Madrid’s path to the final was more difficult, so anyone who calls them “disadvantaged” should think hard about what it means. Carlo Ancelotti’s men don’t give up in front of anyone and enjoy throwing uppercuts at teams they shouldn’t have beaten. In the round of 16, they only had a 4% chance of winning the Champions League according to the FiveThirtyEight model. I wrote about why this didn’t matter, in January. If you think that the team that has the best goalkeeper, striker and winger in the Champions League, along with a fighting and deadly crowd on the bench, smart and prolific winners and veterans, is not on the same field. in a game like this, you should reconsider where you are putting your money.
Liverpool may not face Cristiano Ronaldo this time around, but they will have to face Vinicius Jr, a fearless player who has mastered all the offensive metrics of the competition, apart from the scoring, which Benzema has taken care of. politely. Trent Alexander-Arnold, an absolute offensive weapon, leaves room behind if Liverpool’s counter-press is broken. In the final against Vinicius, he will face his biggest test from a defensive point of view. Vinicius will be the best dribbler and creative force that Trent has faced so far in this tournament. Can the Brazilian try the English right-back on a clip high enough to keep him under control?
Wings, in general, give us four key confrontations right away. Ahead of Trent is Mohamed Salah, who has been one of the best players in the world this season, despite a slight drop in the African Cup of Nations. Ferland Mendy will be playing with 100% health and concentration, bringing out his A game on the defensive to contribute to a potentially historic night. If he can avoid Salah’s cuts and force him to back down, he will give Real Madrid more time to put up their defense and avoid entering the penalty area.
Where I am even more optimistic with Real Madrid than when I wrote the aforementioned article in January is the improved depth chart. The staff is the same as it used to be, but now there are more contributors than in January. Ancelotti has increased his confidence in more players, and most have lifted the call. Even on the sidelines of the bench, someone like Dani Ceballos has brought great energy to both sides in the knockout rounds of the Champions League.
I would say this is a classic Real Madrid season where the team winters for a few months before flowering in the spring. What stands out especially this season, however, is the unique harmony and brotherhood, as well as, I would venture to say in the most topical way possible, seemingly “new” signings that have been entrusted by Ancelotti, in particular: Eduardo Camavinga , Rodrygo Goes, Dani Ceballos. The production momentum that Ancelotti got simply from degrading Asensio’s role in favor of more playing time for Rodrygo was huge to get Real Madrid so far.
Jurgen Klopp will seek to inflict pain from the beginning through an aggressive press. Liverpool only allow 8.07 passes per defensive action, the lowest of any Premier League team. No Champions League team has tried harder in the final third (629) than Liverpool. Will Klopp recover more conservatively in the final? Unlikely. Liverpool pressed aggressively at the start of the 2018 final against Real Madrid, and Zidane’s men withstood the storm.
But that Real Madrid team was resistant to pressure. Despite Liverpool’s best efforts, Keylor Navas faced just two shots on goal throughout the match and Zidane’s men finally dominated possession and created more (and better) chances. This current version of Real Madrid will probably have more difficulty getting out of the back. Entering Liverpool’s third may be more difficult this year than four years ago, and as in the semi-finals against Manchester City, it will be the first of one or two passes from the back that will be crucial in advancing the ball. . How quickly (and calmly) will the bottom line and the deep midfielders react to a swarm? It was a fight against PSG, Chelsea and Manchester City. There are no 180 minutes and a Bernabéu crashed to feed a lift. Digging a deep hole will be problematic, regardless of the amount of DNA in the Champions League.
Liverpool will swarm, chase and hunt as soon as they lose the ball. They have a unique ability to create more danger when they lose the ball than when they pass it. If they are trapped, Fabinho, his Casemiro, has been key in covering and is strong enough in the position to sprint back and stop the counters. If Real Madrid want to win their 14th Champions League title, the speed and efficiency to pass the start and move the ball in the transition will be as key as the individual brilliance in attack.
In the big games recently, both Tottenham and Chelsea blocked the space between the lines against Liverpool and exploited the space behind Klopp’s top line. Liverpool deploys a 4-3-3, but it is a scheme that often turns into a 2-4-3-1 with the sides in the last third. from this position, or: A) will recover the ball quickly once they lose it; B) rely on Fabinho and the central defenders to stop the opposition; or C) are broken:
Chelsea worked hard for this attack, but the reward is precious. Sadio Mané does not follow Marco Alonso’s run in the area. TAA is unaware of where Christian Pulisic is positioned and allows the American to shoot freely and unmarked inside the area.
As always, Real Madrid’s attack will depend on their defensive configuration. The contrast between Tottenham and Chelsea was interesting. Tottenham have been covered and barely escaped their half, creating far fewer opportunities, but what little they created was quality. Chelsea, on the other hand, held a higher line, pressed and tried to keep the ball more in the middle of Liverpool. Luis Diaz caught them on a few occasions as a result. Both models worked. Which one will Real Madrid choose? They often take a medium term, which has many dangers.
If you have to guess, Ancelotti gets more out of Antonio Conte’s project. Real Madrid have an average of 51.8% possession in the Champions League this season, lower than that of 11 other teams. In comparison, Liverpool is second (63.2%) and Chelsea is fourth (61.3%). Chelsea irritated Liverpool with their press and shut down outlets, but also became vulnerable. Based on everything we’ve seen in the Champions League this season, Ancelotti won’t press high until he introduces the bench mob into the second half and energy rises one level.
Watch out for the Liverpool funnel – all its right side. Only five players – Rodri Hernandez, Joao Cancelo, Antonio Rudiger, Luka Modric, Benjamin Pavard – have had more touches this season in the Champions League than the TAA. By extension, no player has received more progressive passes (114) than Mo Salah. Liverpool look for the Egyptian in almost every sequence, and TAA (first in the Premier League in key passes, crosses in the penalty area, progressive passes, through balls, shot-making actions and passes in the penalty area) will support him with a loaded weapon full of offense.
That’s why the wing duel, particularly the Vinicius – Mendy vs TAA – Salah duel, will be so critical. Vinicius will have to find the delicate balance of helping Mendy as he exploits the space behind TAA. Vinicius is also unlikely to receive much offensive help from Mendy.
I guess this game will be more open than many think, with waves of momentum in both directions. If Liverpool start this final as aggressively as they did in 2018, Vinicius will have plenty of opportunities to get behind the TAA and isolate Virgil van Dijk by his side as Benzema drags defenders off the field with a run away from the ball. as she did against him. Chelsea.
Since Liverpool’s follow-up is so successful, Benzema’s races or even Rodrygo Goes, who is an expert in cutting the area to score goals, should have no shortage of opportunities even if Liverpool dominate the ball. These are the types of opportunities that Liverpool’s defense allows if they are not winning the ball up …