There are few things more satisfying than watching everyone rush to the waiver wire early in the season only to discover that the guy they were hoping was available is already on your roster. Fantasy managers who drafted James Robinson or Elijah Mitchell the last two years know exactly what I’m talking about.
My hope is that there are a couple of Week 1 surprises in the list below, but that’s not all you’ll find. You will find at least one player that I expect to start the year on the PUP list, but could win the league in the second half. You’ll find multiple running backs, a few tight ends and even a quarterback or two.
So what do this mix of players have in common? Well, they all have consensus ADP Fantasy Pros outside the top 180 and they’re all being drafted after the first 10 rounds on CBS starting August 25th. I’ve sorted them by division with a few words about my favorites from each division.
I expect some objections that a couple of these guys are too well known, so I’ll update in September for the final draft weekend if ADP changes that much.
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The NFC North has a huge advantage over everyone else in this regard. While Herbert is my favorite of the bunch and Doubs has talked about training camp, Jameson Williams is actually one of my favorite late picks, as long as you have an IR slot in your league.
Even in industry drafts, Williams often makes the final round because he’s already been placed on the PUP list and will miss at least the first four weeks of the season. My expectation is that Williams will return after the team’s Week 7 bye and I’m perfectly fine drafting him, stashing him and then having an open roster spot for this first round of waivers.
With perfect help, Williams could have been the WR1 in this class, and if he returns to 100%, he may be the No. 1 wide receiver in this class for the 2022 Fantasy playoffs. Williams ran a career 4.30 and 40 yards at the combine and produced more than 1,500 yards as a 20-year-old at Alabama. He’s an incredible talent who just needs to get healthy and learn the system.
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Dontrell Hilliard isn’t my favorite, but he looks like Derrick Henry’s wife, so if that’s your kind of thing, he should be on your radar for the final round. The same goes for Evan Engram, who appears locked in as a TE1 in a Doug Pederson offense.
The guy who is my favorite is Nico Collins. Collins struggled as a rookie, but he’s 6-foot-4 and ran a 4.45 40 at his pro day, so I’m willing to give him a pass on that bad rookie year. Collins has virtually no competition for targets behind Brandin Cooks and I expect an increase in pass volume and pass efficiency in Davis Mills’ second year as a starter. Collins looms as a borderline tight end with a healthy Cooks and a potential top-25 wide receiver if something happens to him.
We’re taking Collins as early as round 10 in our mocks, but his ADP doesn’t reflect that at all. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was one of the moves in the final two weeks of draft season.
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Isiah Pacheco and Zamir White are a pair of backs that surprised me qualified for this list. Pacheco in particular has been drafted as late as round 8 in some of our industry drafts. While I think it’s a mistake, it’s also a mistake to let him go past the 12th round.
Both full-backs are in teams we’re not sure are sold on their starters. Both backs could be goal line backs based on reports we’ve heard during camp. And those two full-backs are rookies on teams that could have some fireworks in attack. On the downside, both backs will likely share with someone if the starter goes down. I prefer white a bit, but I’m fine with either in round 11.
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While Sterling Shepard surprised me by coming off the PUP before the year started, and every other Giants receiver looks injured, he’s not my favorite on this list. At least not until I hear he’s back to 100%. My favorite is Jalen Tolbert and he could get a big chance due to the recovery of another injured receiver, Michael Gallup.
Tolbert was a 3rd round pick of the South Alabama Cowboys, where he thoroughly dominated the smaller competition, averaging 122 yards per game. His 51.2% grounder rating ranks in the 97th percentile for receivers entering the NFL, and he drew rave reviews in Dallas this offseason.
It’s always tricky to evaluate small school guys like Tolbert and the fact that he’s already 23 makes him even more suspect, but that maturity combined with that opportunity could equate to a very fast start. if Gallup isn’t able to get back to 100% early in the year, Tolbert could get an extended run as a WR2 in an offense that we expect to be well above average, if not explosive.
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As you can see, the quality starts to drop off at this point, especially once we get past my favorite in each division. Although I will say that I think there is an understated chance that all four players in the NFC South, especially, will make an impact this year. Mariota runs enough to be a starting QB in a one-quarterback league, Robbie Anderson is probably the Panthers’ No. 2 wide receiver, and Kyle Rudolph could fill the Gronk role. But I don’t like any of them as much as I like Mark Ingram.
Ingram played two games without Kamara last year and averaged 20 touches, 110.5 yards and 19.1 PPR Fantasy points per game. That makes Ingram one of the more attractive handles, and he’s not being drafted as such. I also think there’s a chance he could be a poor man’s Kareem Hunt without an injury to Kamara, especially if the Saints stay as top-heavy as they were last year. I actually have Ingram projected within Hunt’s range, but I rank him much lower because you don’t have to draft him that high.
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Eno Benjamin is a nice handcuff and Geno Smith could be a crafty QB2 in leagues where you can start more than one, but Tyler Higbee is the deep dream star of the NFC West and I’m not sure why he’s ranked.
Last year Higbee finished the year as the 14th overall TE and edged out Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry and Pat Freiermuth per game. He was even better over his last four games, averaging 13.8 Fantasy points per game. Now we’ve seen a great finish from Higbee that didn’t translate the following year, but I think this is different.
For one thing, Higbee got target share last year, his efficiency fell off a cliff, and I don’t think there’s any reason to believe he’ll continue to be any less efficient with Matthew Stafford than he was with Jared Goff. He has a 100-target advantage in an offense that we believe may be the best in football, and the team’s top two targets are two 29-year-old receivers with extensive injury histories. He is one injury away from being the second target of the attack and a potential league winner. Even without an injury, I project Higbee to be a top 12 tight end and rarely selected in our drafts.
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Yes, it gets worse. Isaiah McKenzie is right behind Corey Davis here, but both are wide receivers who likely need help to make real difference-makers in Fantasy. For Davis, it might be as simple as avoiding Garrett Wilson, which none of us really want. For McKenzie, he just needs to preserve Cole Beasley’s role and be more efficient.
Beasley averaged seven targets per game over the past three seasons. McKenzie could earn those targets, but it will mean Gabriel Davis and/or Dawson Knox don’t take the step forward they’re being drafted to take. Considering I don’t have Davis or Knox as high as the consensus, it seems possible.
The other advantage McKenzie might have over Beasley is in the run game. He has 19 carries for 56 yards and a touchdown over the past two seasons and ran 10 times for 66 yards and two scores in 2018. If McKenzie could put up a point per game on the ground, there’s more upside.
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Here we are again with Mike Davis. Gus Edwards has already been placed on the PUP list. JK Dobbins is not completely wiped out yet. Mike Davis can be your Week 1 starter against the New York Jets.
I know you feel like Davis has fooled you before, but I have to remind you that Latavius Murray scored four touchdowns in the first six games of 2021 for Baltimore and Devonta Freeman averaged 14.2 PPR Fantasy points per match of week 9-14. If these guys can be fantasy relevant in this offense, almost anyone could.
Davis probably won’t play a big role for long, but if you can find a Week 1 starter in the double-digit rounds, you should jump in,…