MLB’s Aug. 2 trade deadline is a week away, and that means teams are deep in trade discussions right now. Some seem like obvious buyers, especially given the expanded postseason field, and others are very much in seller territory. Others, however, have a less certain path and may not know for sure until the last few hours whether they are trading vets, acquiring them, or doing nothing at all. We are entering this uncertain struggle to categorize each team as a buyer or seller or else observe the uncertainties that make things uncertain.
As a reminder, there’s only one trade deadline in MLB these days, and that’s been the case since 2019. Players can still be claimed on straight waivers after the deadline, but they can’t be traded. Players must be acquired by August 31, either via trade before the deadline or through waivers after the deadline, to be eligible for postseason rosters.
Now let’s jump (the teams are listed in alphabetical order).
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Sportsline Postseason Odds: <1.0%Buyer or Seller?: Seller
The D-Backs went eight of 11 heading into the break, which may have sealed their fate as deadline sellers. They should definitely look to move Madison Bumgarner, who is having his first useful season since 2019, and Merrill Kelly should also be traded. Other trade candidates include Christian Walker, David Peralta and All-Star Joe Mantiply.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: 98.2%Buyer or Seller?: Buyer
The Braves don’t have many pressing roster needs, but a modest deadline shopping list could include more pitching depth, a right fielder with some defensive flexibility, and better spacing at second base until Ozzie Albies returns from an injury GM Alex Anthopoulos has some room for improvement, but he’s not desperate.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: 1.0% Buyer or Seller?: Somewhere in between
Given the Orioles’ recent awful and surprising relevancy this season, the heretofore jaded fan base probably isn’t in the mood for another deep selloff. That said, don’t expect the Orioles to be major players before the deadline either. They could look for some marginal improvements in the rotation, ideally ones that come with some element of control, but otherwise they should be fine and watch the chips fall in the second half against a pretty brutal schedule.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: 15.8% Buyer or Seller?: Probably neither
The Red Sox need rotation help, especially in light of Chris Sale’s broken finger and an upgrade at first base. Ownership, however, has been notably stingy in recent years, and GM Chaim Bloom doesn’t seem like the type to be agitating to make more of an effort. There’s also the fact that the Red Sox have been on a downward trend lately (to put it mildly). It’s hard to imagine him being taken down on such short notice, but it’s easy to imagine nothing happening in Boston before the deadline.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: <1.0%Buyer or Seller?: Seller
The rebuilding Cubs are among the most active sellers over the next few days. Catcher Willson Contreras, closer David Robertson, veteran lefty Drew Smyly, and maybe even slugger Patrick Wisdom are all available at the right price. Ian Happ could also generate significant interest, but could be a target for a contract extension in Chicago. Kyle Hendricks is another name to watch, provided he recovers soon.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: 48.8%Buyer or Seller?: Buyer
Thanks in large part to the fact that they play in the AL Central, the White Sox still rank as a contender. They have a very real chance to repeat as division champs despite a disappointing first half, but to do so they may need to look for improvements at second base and find impact fielding — left-handed bats in both cases. They also need reinforcements in the bullpen. The challenge will be that owner Jerry Reinsdorf seems unlikely to increase the payroll much more.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: <1%Buyer or Seller?: Seller
The Reds would have been playoff contenders this season had they kept the roster intact, but suffice it to say that didn’t happen. The property figures to take another bite out of the list before August 2nd. Luis Castillo is perhaps the biggest non-Juan Soto name to watch right now, and Tyler Mahle, now back from the IL, also figures to be a coveted name in the starting pitcher market. If the Reds move both, they should be able to do well for the return prospect.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: 43.8%Buyer or Seller?: Near-buyer
The AL Central is an eminently winnable division, but Cleveland ownership is largely indifferent when it comes to success on the field. Assuming the Dolans can even be bothered, addressing the receiver deficiency seems like a necessary move for the Guardians. This season, Cleveland catchers Austin Hedges and Luke Malle, for the most part, have combined to hit .169/.260/.255.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: <1.0% Buyer or Seller?: Probably neither
The Rockies are the most incompetent organization in Major League Baseball, and that starts with ownership. On the one hand, it’s refreshing. The homogeneity of today’s office can lead to boredom, but the Rockies occasionally spice things up with some pre-Enlightenment decisions. They should be thanked for that, at least if you’re not a Rockies fan. On the other hand, they’re not likely to do what they should, which is trade everything they can and start over. We’ll call them salespeople, but they almost certainly won’t do anything.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: <1.0%Buyer or Seller?: Seller
The Tigers’ 2022 season has been a huge failure so far, which means they should look to move as many veterans as they can. It looks like Robbie Grossman is getting some trade interest, which is strange considering how he’s struggled this year. Michael Fulmer, who has transitioned into a bullpen role with much success, might be their best trade piece. Others who could transfer include Michael Pineda, Andrew Chafin and Gregory Soto.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: 100% Buyer or Seller?: Buyer but not desperate
The Astros are a lock to win the AL West, and their focus should be on securing a first-round bye in the postseason. Fortunately for GM James Click, his wish list is fairly modest. Houston could use bullpen help from the left side, catcher depth and perhaps a left-handed backup infielder to spell the aging Yuli Gurriel at times.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: <1.0%Buyer or Seller?: Seller
The Royals likely need a new front office moving forward, but instead at this point a trade will need to happen. Andrew Benintendi, Michael A. Taylor and Hunter Dozier seem like viable candidates to move, and they may even get something for Zack Greinke. They should be open to pretty much anything, as an organizational reset is needed at all levels.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: <1.0% Buyer or Seller?: Seller (But Not Who You're Thinking)
While you hear some idle speculation about a trade for Shohei Ohtani at the deadline, it seems highly unlikely to happen. The Angels, however, have been consistent in their inability to match high-end stars like Ohtani and Mike Trout on the roster. What they will likely do is trade Noah Syndergaard and maybe Michael Lorenzen and then ponder a more global sale heading into the offseason.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: 100% Buyer or Seller?: Buyer
The Dodgers are obviously the ones to watch when it comes to any potential Juan Soto success, but they should be active even if that doesn’t happen yet. While their pitching has been predictably excellent, they could still use an extra rotation arm given the uncertainty surrounding Walker Buehler and his injured elbow. LA’s bullpen is also pretty broken right now and is projected to be there for some time. This can be a worrying situation in October.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: <1%Buyer or Seller?: Sellers, mostly
The Marlins are on the edge of the race for the last wild-card spot in the NL, so they could justify any approach. Given their embarrassment of riches when it comes to pitching, they should look to move some of those arms in exchange for young or semi-young controllable hitters who can address some of the lineup’s many weaknesses. Jazz Chisholm’s back injury likely eliminates the Marlins as all-around buyers.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: 77.0%Buyer or Seller?: Buyer
The biggest concern right now for the NL Central leaders is the health of the rotation. Adrian Houser (elbow) and Freddy Peralta (lat) are both on the IL with no clear schedules. The hope is that they’ll be back in August, but the Brewers may need to protect against worst-case scenarios by adding some rotation depth before the deadline. Elsewhere, a true center fielder may also be necessary.
Sportsline Postseason Odds: 45.0%Buyer or Seller?: Buyer
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