Tampa Bay: Apparently Still Very Good!
Well, here we are, where we started, and closer to having the answer to a question we asked before this postseason. With a 2-1 win in Tampa Bay on Saturday night, the Lightning secured their place in the Stanley Cup final for the third year in a row, with captain Steven Stamkos scoring both goals, and now flirts with the greatness of all time.
Whatever you do with this winning goal, New York Rangers goalkeeper Igor Shesterkin is not to blame for the game or the outcome of the series. Shesterkin performed a great series. Tampa only does this to teams – they’ve done it 11 times in a row in the postseason over the past three years. Whether the Rangers were tired or not from the previous two series, both of which played seven games, Tampa made them look tired. After Games 1 and 2, Tampa beat, beat, beat and finally beat the Rangers. New York was also trained; this has also happened a lot to teams facing the Lightning recently. Jon Cooper has a lot of work to do, but he’s also an effective communicator – more like a corporate manager than a classic hockey coach.
Anyway, at least I didn’t go down without explaining myself first. New York scored nine goals in the first two games, but only scored five more in the last four, with only one scoring with the same strength. That just won’t cut it. Tampa Bay is simply too disciplined a team, too willing to play a tough defense when it’s worth it, and has too good a goalie to rely on your power to beat them.
You have to be able to overcome them in all situations. You have to be a team like the Colorado Avalanche.
The avalanche is an offensive machine
Maybe there were only two points during the regular season in which the Colorado Avalanche looked like a normal hockey team: at first, when it struggled to get out of the gate, and at the end, when it went 1-6 in his party. the last seven games. But this final stretch was a coincidence or an elaborate forgery. Either way, we shouldn’t have been fooled. The reality is that the Avalanche is a marauding hockey machine.
Look what they did to him in Edmonton. Oh my god. And yet, here’s the thing: even though the Oilers were swept away, their offensive performance was pretty good! In most other situations, it would probably have meant winning the series. Check out this JFreshHockey comparison of situations from five to five to 60 minutes.
5v5 Series Microstat Recap: #GoAvsGo Defeats #LetsGoOilers
If you like offense, especially rushes, this is the series for you. The Avs created a lot of … pretty much everything, and although the Oilers produced offensively enough to win most series, they didn’t keep up. pic.twitter.com/J6O0Cxq25X
– JFresh (@JFreshHockey) June 7, 2022
In fact, Colorado is already a historic powerhouse. As Neil Paine wrote this week in FiveThirtyEight, this Avalanche team ranks 10th in the scoring differential per game between all Stanley Cup finalists through to the final round and are only, ironically, tied with the Edmonton Oilers. of 1982-83 for the second best victory. percentage. The 2022 Oilers, meanwhile, are a pretty good hockey team. But the Oilers are not a good enough hockey team to beat the Colorado Avalanche. The team that is good enough to beat the Avalanche will have to play very disciplined defensive hockey, have a clutch goalkeeper and the ability to close out a powerful offense.
Oh, and one more thing: they must be able to beat Cale Makar. It’s not easy, because if there’s one thing we’ve learned from the Avalanche-Oilers series, it’s that …
Makar can see the matrix
The debate over the best NHL player usually focuses on two players: Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid. It is understandable, given his goal-scoring ability and his overall magic. Colorado striker Nathan MacKinnon also joins this chat from time to time. Still, perhaps the best player is actually his teammate, defender Cale Makar.
Remember Cale Makar treats the NHL like the Tuesday night beer league, the sand divisions casually, eating cookies on the sidewalk. 🍪 pic.twitter.com/USEvehgrhE
– Bring Hockey Back (@BringHockeyBack) May 4, 2022
In his 14 playoff games before the final round, Makar has scored 22 points. That includes 10 points during the first round sweep of the Nashville Predators, the most recorded by a defender in four playoff games ever. It also includes the five he won in Colorado’s last game against the Oilers, a one-game account that no defense has reached the playoffs since Al MacInnis in 1994. Makar’s closest defensive point rival this postseason, Rangers defender Adam Fox scored 23 points … but through 20 games. Without taking anything away from Fox, he was not commissioned to cover McDavid either. Makar era. And he did it without even sweating.
Makar sees the matrix and bends it to his will. Makar is the only one.
A touch of history
There is a superstition surrounding the NHL Conference Championship trophies: that playing the Clarence Campbell Bowl (west) or the Prince of Wales Trophy (east) will curse your team in the loss of the Stanley Cup. It is also customary that if the team puts up with any trophy, it does so with a solemn face. The logic, if you will, is that it is not real. The theory is a disaster, of course: many teams that have won either trophy have won the Stanley Cup. But tradition reflects the fact that no one really cares about hockey conference championships. Only the Stanley Cup matters. But it’s still fun to watch a real-time team debate over whether or not to collectively choose the superstitious belief, or what version of it.
Joe Sakic obviously doesn’t care about superstition. But can other coincidences make sense? As mentioned, this Avalanche team has the best record of playoff wins since the 1982-83 Oilers entered the final. By the way, these Oilers confronted the New York Islanders and were swept away. It was the Islanders’ third straight Stanley Cup victory, the last time a triple had occurred.
Before the series against the Islanders in the spring of 1983, Oilers general manager Glen Sather told the New York Times: “I don’t think we’re very different from the Islanders. Except they’ve gone much further than us. And we would definitely like to replace them. ” Reflecting years later on his loss, the Oilers saw what the differences really were. “They were a little more disciplined than we were and probably had a better work ethic,” Grant Fuhr said in 2019. “When we walked around the Islander Room that year, we realized how hard it is to win,” said Wayne Gretzky. . “They weren’t even celebrating, I was thinking,‘ They’re exhausted, I guess there’s more to give, ’” Paul Coffey said.
The Lightning have shown this postseason why they are the first team from the islanders to play for a third consecutive Cup. Now comes the Avalanche: a fast-paced, dynamic team from the West. The vibrations of the 80’s are strong right now.
Will we get a three-peat?
I’m lousy with the predictions most of the time, but this clash that has felt good since the start of the postseason, perhaps because it looks like the guard is about to change. But now is the time? Colorado will give Tampa Bay its toughest challenge to date. They will be rested and hungry. Without a doubt, they are the toughest opponent to face the Lightning in the final: they are a much better team than Dallas or Montreal. The Avalanche can do whatever it takes to beat the Lightning, no doubt. But I don’t think they will. Tampa feels like the deepest team, mentally. And with the possibility of Brayden Point returning, they will also be deeper offensively. Tampa will discover Colorado, or at least Vasilevsky, and that could be all that matters.
A couple of months ago, my money was in Colorado. Now, I think Tampa Bay will make three blunders. But we will have six great hockey games before that.