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The COVID-19 pandemic is a complex carpet of intertwined factors, says study author Kim McGrail.
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The Canadian press
Jean-Benoit Legault
Date Posted:
May 30, 2022 • 4 hours ago • Read 3 minutes Paramedics drive CHSLD Herron resident to Dorval in spring 2020. Photo by John Mahoney / Montreal Gazette
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Quebec had the highest mortality rate in Canada related to COVID-19, while Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island had the lowest, according to an analysis by the Canadian Medical Association Journal.
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However, researchers admit that their findings may have been skewed by many factors.
“We wanted to know if mortality during the first 18 months of the pandemic was really specifically associated with COVID or if something bigger was happening,” said study author Kim McGrail, a professor at the University of British Columbia.
The statistics used in the study came from Health Canada for the period March 2020 to October 2021, before the advent of the Omicron variant.
Ontario was the province where the excess mortality (the difference between the number of deaths expected and those that actually occurred) and the deaths caused by COVID-19 were more aligned. Overall mortality was higher in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan than in the rest of the country.
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Researchers point out that it is still difficult to establish a precise association between the pandemic and excess mortality. British Columbia, for example, was hit by a heat wave in 2021, which increased the total number of deaths.
On the other hand, as many Canadians were confined to their homes during the study period, there was a decline in the number of deaths attributable to traffic accidents and influenza.
“In addition, there were those who delayed treatment (medical), which avoided hospitals for fear of the virus, delayed surgeries,” McGrail said. “All of these things could also be a source of mortality. It’s very difficult to discern what would have happened if there hadn’t been a pandemic.”
The study notes that the pandemic devastated Quebec’s long-term care centers (CHSLD), which could have skewed the province’s excessive numbers of deaths, as many of the disease’s major victims were already in near the end of his life. McGrail acknowledges that COVID-19 shortened the lives of some residents by a few days, but not in all cases.
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“Maybe they wouldn’t have died for two or three more years,” he said. “These are two completely different situations and should not be confused with each other.”
That said, a review of the number of weekly deaths associated with COVID-19 in Quebec and Nova Scotia found excessive increases in some weeks and lower mortality rates than expected in others, so that “it is possible that (the disease) has taken people to Quebec who were really at the end of their lives, “McGrail said.
The COVID-19 pandemic is a complex carpet of intertwined factors, McGrail said. It is difficult to determine which factor was responsible for what “but it is equally important to try to understand it.”
McGrail points out that another variant or a new health crisis could arise, and “variations between provinces can help us” to better understand what we were going through.
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“We need to record total mortality much, much faster because it’s obvious that total mortality is what we need to follow,” he said. “You have to take the time to understand what factors have contributed to it. I really think the only way to have a proper response in the future is to understand what worked well and what didn’t work well.”
All of our coronavirus news can be found at montrealgazette.com/tag/coronavirus. For information on vaccines in Quebec, tap here. Sign up for our local newsletter dedicated to local COVID-19 coverage at montrealgazette.com/coronavirusnews.Help support our local journalism by subscribing to the Montreal Gazette here.
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