The UK could face “very high prices” due to power shortages this winter, but the lights will stay on, National Grid has said.
The electricity system operator of the electricity grid (ESO) said it expects supply to be tight sometime this winter, most likely in the first half of December.
When that happens, the UK is willing to pay higher prices to ensure it gets the electricity it needs from abroad, the ESO said in a report.
The UK imports electricity through cables connected to other countries, notably France, Belgium and the Netherlands.
“There are risks and uncertainties this winter as a direct result of possible shortfalls in gas supply in Europe,” ESO said.
“As noted elsewhere, while Britain is not dependent on Russian gas to the extent that the rest of Europe is, it is clear that the cessation of gas flows to Europe could have impacts, including very high prices elevated”.
France’s nuclear reactors, many of which have been shut down, may also be unavailable this winter, he said, citing ongoing maintenance issues.
ESO said it has worked with the government to delay the closure of five coal plants in case they are needed to produce power this winter.
The company is also “exploring options” to incentivize energy users to reduce their use during peak hours.
“We expect there will be enough capacity available to meet the demand,” he said.
Jess Ralston, senior analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: “We may get through the winter without major incidents, but the gas bill in the end is likely to be exorbitant.
“With calls for the £15bn winter energy package to be extended, the government will be blasted for not investing more in energy efficiency over the years.
“The high cost of gas will add £2,000 to bills from October, but this could increase if Putin already cuts the flow to Germany.”
The analysis reflects Russia’s decision to reduce the flow of its gas to Europe to just 20% of the capacity of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which has pushed up wholesale prices.
There are fears that this could get even worse if supplies are cut off completely.
The UK imports less than 5% of its gas from Russia – and has pledged to phase out imports by the end of the year – but is affected by fluctuations in global markets.
Experts say household energy bills will rise from £1,971 a year to £3,420 this autumn, before reaching £3,850 in January.
Read more: Record energy price paid as London narrowly avoids blackout due to heatwave
The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said the report shows that “the UK’s secure and diverse energy supply will ensure that homes, businesses and industry have confidence in getting electricity and gas they need.”
“The UK is in a fortunate position, having access to our own North Sea gas reserves, imports from reliable partners such as Norway, the second largest LNG (liquefied natural gas) port infrastructure in Europe and a gas supply backed by strong legal contracts.” he said.
“Thanks to a massive £90 billion investment in clean energy over the last decade, we have one of the most reliable and diverse energy systems in the world and, unlike Europe, we are not dependent on Russian energy imports.”
Tips to save energy from the Energy Saving Trust
- Avoid overfilling the kettle
- Insulate your water tank, pipes and radiators
- Only run the dishwasher when it is full
- Swap your bathroom for a shower
- Spend less time in the shower
- Avoid the dryer
- Use your washing machine on a 30 degree cycle instead of higher temperatures and reduce your use
- Turn off the lights
- Draft-proof windows and doors
- Turn off your appliances in standby mode.