BEIJING (AP) — Beijing protested but swallowed its irritation in 1997 when then-Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan, the island democracy that the mainland’s ruling Communist Party claimed as own territory
China had other priorities. President Jiang Zemin’s government was preparing to celebrate the return of Hong Kong and wanted to block Beijing’s emergence from diplomatic isolation following the 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square. Gingrich, a pusher for closer ties between the US and China, had just helped that campaign by meeting with Jiang in Beijing. China avoided a disruptive confrontation with Washington.
A quarter of a century later, conditions have changed dramatically. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s government is richer, more armed and less willing to compromise on Taiwan after news that Speaker Nancy Pelosi could become the highest-ranking US official since Gingrich to visit the island.
Beijing sees any official contact with Taiwan as a recognition of its democratically elected government, which the mainland says has no right to maintain foreign relations.
The timing adds to the political pressure. Xi is expected to seek a third five-year term as party leader at a meeting in the fall. That could be undermined if rivals can accuse Xi of not being tough enough on what they see as American provocation.
Pelosi has yet to confirm whether she might visit, but Beijing is warning of “strong measures” including military action if she does.
The United States “does not have to arrange for Pelosi to visit Taiwan,” a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman, Tan Kefei, said Tuesday.
“If the United States continues with this, the Chinese military will never stand by and do nothing,” Tan said. “It will take strong measures to thwart any external interference and separatist plans for ‘Taiwan independence’ and resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Tan referred to Pelosi as “No. 3 in the US government,” after her place in the line of succession to become president. That suggests Beijing sees her as President Joe Biden’s underling, rather than an equal as head of one of the three independent branches of government.
Biden told reporters that the U.S. military believes a visit “is not a good idea right now.” But, possibly in deference to his position, the president has stopped short of saying Pelosi shouldn’t go. U.S. officials told The Associated Press that if Pelosi leaves, the U.S. military would likely use fighter jets, ships and other forces to protect her flight.
The Chinese rhetoric about this is “quite disturbing”, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. “If asked, we will do whatever is necessary to ensure a safe and secure visit.”
US officials have said the administration doubts China will take direct action against Pelosi herself or try to sabotage the visit. But they do not rule out the possibility that China could increase provocative flights by military aircraft in Taiwanese airspace or near naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait should the trip take place. And they do not prevent Chinese actions elsewhere in the region as a show of strength.
Taiwan and China separated in 1949 after a civil war that ended with a communist victory on the mainland. The two governments say they are one country, but disagree on who is the national leader. The two sides do not have official relations, but are connected by billions of dollars of trade and investment.
The United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, but has extensive unofficial and commercial ties to the island. US law requires Washington to ensure Taiwan has the means to defend itself.
Beijing has not hesitated to try to intimidate Taiwan with shows of force.
The ruling party’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, fired missiles into the sea near Taiwan to drive voters away from then-President Lee Teng-hui in the island’s first direct presidential election in early 1996. This it backfired by allowing Lee to talk tough about his stance. all the way to Beijing in front of cheering fans. He was elected with 54% of the vote in a four-way race.
The U.S. responded by sending two carrier battle groups to the area, a move that forced China to admit it could not stop Washington from helping Taiwan, which helped spur Beijing’s massive military build-up in the years since. .
The following year, Gingrich led a delegation of US lawmakers to Taiwan after a three-day visit to the mainland. This followed Vice President Al Gore’s visit to Beijing the previous week.
Previously one of Beijing’s fiercest critics in Washington on human rights and Taiwan, Gingrich praised China’s economic development. He spoke sympathetically about the challenges Beijing would face in running Hong Kong after 150 years of British rule. He said Congress supported China’s claim to Taiwan as long as unification was peaceful. He expressed the hope that the two parts will evolve to become one state.
Gingrich said he told Chinese leaders that “we will defend Taiwan,” but he said they responded that Beijing had no intention of attacking.
After Gingrich’s comments, China’s foreign ministry said it was confused about US policy. “What the US government and leaders of some government branches say and what they promised are not the same,” ministry spokesman Shen Guofang said at the time.
In the quarter-century since then, Beijing’s stance toward Taiwan has hardened and its military resources have grown. And the continent has warned it will invade if talks to unite the two sides fail to make progress.
China overtook Germany and Japan to become the second largest economy behind the United States. Its military spending is also second only to Washington’s at $293 billion in 2021 after a 27-year streak of increases, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The political landscape has also been changed by the rise of Xi, who has amassed more power over the past decade than any Chinese leader since at least the 1980s and wants to be seen as restoring the country to its former glory. historical greatness This includes being more assertive abroad and increasing pressure on Taiwan.
The ruling party has spent hundreds of billions of dollars developing fighter jets, submarines, an aircraft carrier and other high-tech weapons. It is working on “carrier killer” missiles believed to be intended to jam Taiwan’s defenses against the US Navy in the event of an attack. The PLA is sending increasing numbers of fighters and bombers to fly near Taiwan.
Beijing’s larger economy and global role also give it more diplomatic tools to project its anger on Washington. The Biden administration wants Chinese cooperation on climate, fighting the coronavirus and other global challenges, all of which Beijing could disrupt.
Washington and Beijing are already embroiled in conflicts over trade, Hong Kong, Beijing’s treatment of Muslim minorities and Chinese claims to large sections of the South and East China Seas.
Pelosi is hardly new to upsetting Beijing. As a rookie member of Congress in 1991, he unfurled a black-and-white banner in Tiananmen Square that read, “To those who died for democracy.” This came two years after the bloody crackdown in which hundreds, perhaps thousands, died. Diplomatic protocol prevented Chinese police from arresting Pelosi.
A visit to Taiwan could damage US-China relations in the long term, said Liu Jiangyong, an international relations specialist at Tsinghua University.
Allowing a visit to continue “will affect the credibility of the recent promises that the Biden administration has made,” Liu said. Dialogue between Biden and Xi on other issues “may be seriously affected.”
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AP researcher Yu Bing in Beijing and AP writers David Rising in Bangkok and Lolita C. Baldor in Sydney contributed.