Meteorologists expect a busy 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 65 percent chance of a season above average. There’s also a wildcard in the mix that increases the risk of more severe storms in the Gulf of Mexico this year.
Between 14 and 21 tropical storms could grow strong enough to be named this season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its briefing on the outlook for the season, which was released today. The average Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1, usually has about 14 named storms. Another prominent Colorado State University forecast predicted 19 named storms this year.
NOAA expects between six and ten storms to intensify in hurricanes. NOAA also forecast between three and six major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher with wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour.
There is also a worrying development in the Gulf of Mexico. The loop current, a warm stream of water, has moved surprisingly north at this time of year. The current, which flows like a river in the sea, carries warmer Caribbean water to typically cooler waters closer to the U.S. Gulf Coast. This is especially worrying news for the season, as hurricanes are fueled by thermal energy.
“It’s a higher octane fuel,” says Nick Shay, a professor of oceanography at the University of Miami. “It’s the 800-pound gorilla in the gulf.”
Shay is concerned that the current behavior of the loop current is similar to that of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, when Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma devastated Gulf Coast communities.
“In 2005, we have what is known as Hurricane Trifecta in the Gulf of Mexico,” says Shay. Both Katrina and Rita explosively turned into Category 5 storms after crossing the warmest waters of the loop stream. Hurricanes Ida in 2021 and Harvey in 2017 were also reinforced by the loop current.
Loop current water is also saltier. Differences in temperature and salinity between the loop current and the rest of the gulf limit the mixing of ocean water, which could normally lower surface temperatures.
As a result, the current retains heat at much deeper depths than the surrounding gulf. 78 degrees Fahrenheit water temperatures in the stream can reach up to 500 feet below the surface. Outside the current, this type of temperature usually reaches 100 feet below the surface. “It’s a big difference,” Shay says.
But Shay warns that it is too early to say whether something like 2005 could happen this season. It will depend on whether the storms move towards the loop current (or towards large circular hot water pools that move away from the current, called whirlpools). Whether the loop current can successfully overload storms will also depend on whether storms form during favorable weather conditions and low wind shear.
Strong wind, changes in wind speed and direction can destabilize or weaken a storm. But a weather pattern called La Niña is expected to keep the wind shear low during hurricane season, a factor that could increase the chances of stronger storms developing.
NOAA also noted an “improved” West African monsoon that will affect this year’s Atlantic season. The West African monsoon, a major wind system, can drive stronger easterly waves that “sow many of the strongest and longest-lasting hurricanes during most seasons,” NOAA says in its seasonal outlook. .
Stronger hurricanes are expected to be more frequent as climate change warms the world’s oceans. Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are also likely to increase hurricane activity this season, NOAA said today.
There is also evidence that hurricanes have begun to intensify more rapidly and maintain their strength for longer after hitting land as global average temperatures rise. The warm eddies of the loop current also seem to retain more heat than in the past, Shay says, though scientists still can’t figure out why.
If NOAA’s predictions for 2022 come true, it would be the seventh consecutive season above normal for the Atlantic.