A-level students should be prepared for “disappointment” when results are announced this week, the higher education watchdog has warned.
The Office for Students predicted a significant increase in applicants rejected from their preferred universities after exam boards were ordered to crack down on grade inflation.
Even the brightest pupils who normally “wouldn’t dream” of missing out on the terms of their university offer could be in trouble this year because results will fall below teachers’ predicted grades, the watchdog told The Telegraph.
The students who received their A-level results on Thursday had never sat public exams before, as the year they were due to take their GCSEs was 2020, when all exams were canceled due to of the pandemic, which means it has been harder for teachers to make accurate predictions.
According to an analysis, around 40,000 young people are expected to lose their favorite places.
The aftermath of this year’s exams will be the last blow for a generation of young people who have seen their education severely disrupted by Covid, which has included two extended periods of school closures.
John Blake, the director of fair access and participation at the Office for Students, said it was “only fair” to warn A-level students early to avoid a “shock” on results day.
“Ofqual wants to lower the rating, but if you compare it to, certainly what I’ve seen, the expected ratings of some schools, they’ve accepted that generally results will go down, but not necessarily for them,” Blake said in The The Telegraph.
“That could make a lot of students feel pretty disappointed the day their grades don’t match the grades they expected. And I think it’s important for people to prepare for that a little bit and recognize that.”
Record numbers rejected from major institutions
With students facing the most competitive admissions round in decades, research found record numbers of British students have been rejected from the UK’s most selective institutions, including Oxford and Cambridge, in favor of their foreign peers who pay much higher tuition fees.
Four out of ten British applicants who applied to top universities this summer were rejected, the highest rate ever recorded.
For the past two years, students have been given expected grades, leading to rampant grade inflation and a record number of young people achieving top grades.
Last summer, 44.8% of students received an A* or A grade in their A-levels. This compares to 38.5% in 2020, when a controversial algorithm was scrapped in favor of grades expected
Before the pandemic, about a quarter of students received top grades each year, the latest at 25.2% in 2019.
This year exam watchdog Ofqual has ordered exam boards to clamp down on inflation by ensuring the number of top grades is halfway between 2021 and 2019.
Blake said the approach has failed to prevent teachers from giving their students generous predicted grades, which are likely far higher than their actual results. He said this would lead to more students ending up in the cleaners after losing their offers, including the brightest pupils applying to highly competitive courses such as medicine and dentistry.
However, figures released on Sunday showed a fall in the number of Russell Group courses to be cleared, with 2,358 courses available compared to 3,085 at the same time last year.
Blake said: “Whatever happens, I think there’s going to be a lot of volatility and people need to be prepared for that. And I think it’s fair to tell students that so it doesn’t surprise them.
“This will also include some of the most capable [students]. We know that the most selective courses are competitive – they always are – but this year they will be even more so.
“There will be students who in a normal year wouldn’t dream of having a problem, they might have to think about it.”
First time attending public competitions
Blake noted that this year’s A-level cohort had never sat public exams before, as their GCSEs were canceled at the start of the pandemic in 2020.
His warning follows analysis by Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Center for Education and Employment, which found that tens of thousands of “painfully disappointed” A-level students are expected to lose their university offers this year, since 80,000 best marks minus being awarded.
Demand for places has soared due to an increase in the number of 18-year-olds in the British population and more applications from mature students.
Meanwhile, universities have fewer places to offer this year after their intake surged during the pandemic, when they were forced to accept more students than they had planned.
And at the same time, universities are making an increasing number of offers to overseas students, who pay much higher tuition fees than their British counterparts.
“We know from the clarification figures that very few of the best courses from the best universities are available,” Professor Smithers said.
“In any case, this is a very competitive year for three other reasons. Universities have been actively recruiting foreign students because of the fees they charge. Then we have an increase in the 18-year-old population, and more of them want to go to college.
“And many people who were sitting at home during the confinement began to think ‘what do I want to do with my life?’ This appears to have led to an increase in applications from mature students.”